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Are Boris Johnson’s days numbered?

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of this site. This site does not give financial, investment or medical advice.

Boris Johnson may soon be kicked out as Prime Minister. He became PM in July 2019 when his predecessor Theresa May resigned due to thrice failing to persuade Parliament to vote for her Brexit Agreement with the European Union.

Scandal struck Johnson has got himself into trouble by attending parties during lockdowns in 2020 and 2021. Boris Johnson instituted stringent rulings against social gatherings. The objective was to prevent the spread of coronavirus. Bo Jo himself contracted the diseases in 2020 and spent some weeks in hospital.

BoJo could have taken a robustly liberatarian line. If he did so then holding a birthday party would not have been hypocritical. But having deprived people of their civil liberty in order to prevent contagion it deprived Boris to abide by his own rules. It was galling for people who could not see their grandchildren for months, who could not visit dying relatives, who could not have more than six people attend a funeral and suchlike to know that the Queen’s First Minister flagrantly flouted the rules that he drew up.

When it came to light that there had been parties in Dowing Street during lockdown Boris tried to lie his way out of it. He had other cabinet ministers do likewise. It has been proven that Johnson misled Parliament. If a minister knowingly misleads Parliament the convention is that he or she must resign. Johnson contends that he did not KNOWINGLY mislead Parliament. Inadvertence would rescue his integrity at the expense of his competency. It is his job to know what is going on.

Johnson is deeply unserious and flawed. His is a shameless show boating charlatan. He cares about only one principle: himself. The aggrandisement of Boris Johnson is his pole star. He will pursue any policy, tell any lie, break any solemn promise and betray any friend in order to advance his own career.

The scandal broke in January 2022 about the Downing Street birthday party that Johnson had attended months earlier. His wife Carrie SYmonds ‘ambushed him with a cake’ as Johnson put it. Miss Symonds is a Lady MacBeth figure. She is wilful, social climbing, ruthless and immoral but that is another story. It behoved Johnson to have the strength of character to refuse to participate in the soiree.

In May 2021 Johnson’s prinicpal private secretary emailed dozens of civil servants saying; let’s take advantage of this wonderful weather and have a gathering in the garden of Downing Street after 6 pm. Bring your own booze. A suitcase was used to take alcohol into Downing STreet so as not to arouse the suspicion of the press who are always camped on the doorstep of the Prime Minister’s official residence. Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is also getting his bum smacked over that.

There was a Christmas Party in 10 DOwning Street in December 2020. Boris did not attend but his special advisers did. Allegra Stratton resigned because she had laughed about the incident during a mock press conference. Miss Stratton did not even attend the event. The culture starts from the top. Johnson had set a poor example. He did not discipline his handpicked underlings when they erred. In fact he led them off the straigh and narrow way. 

Johnson issued a grovelling apology to the House of Commons. The leader of the Labour Party is Sir Keir Starmer. Sir Keir is the erstwhile director of the Crown Prosecution Service. Using his barrister’s rapierlike mind he questioned the PM. BoJo could not worm his way out of this. The Labour Party strove to extract the maximum possible embarrassment for the Conservative Party. 

It has been a communications disaster for the Tory Party. It diverted from good news on several fronts. The Public Relations calamity is because it shows the party to be conceited, hypocritical and uncaring. 

Johnson has been fined £50 for breaking lockdown. People were fined £10 000 for far less. The police are investigating more lockdown gatherings two involving Johnson and nine not involving him. This is a bad news story for the Conservative and Unionist party that is going to run and run for months. Johnson tasked a senior civil servant Sue Gray with writing a report into the matter. She could recommend that Johnson resign but he could still defy that recommendation. But more likely Johnson picked her because he knows she is not the sort of person who will ever take firm action.

There is a lot more bad news on the horizon for the United Kingdom. Inflation is up. The GBP is falling. The cost of living is going up in terms of oil, gas and food. Taxes are rising. The economy is slowing. The SNP is demanding a second chance to break up the United Kingdom. Little benefit has been felt from Brexit. Northern Ireland unionists are fed up with the Protocol. But unilaterally rewriting it would infuriate Irish nationalists and the EU.

Small wonder Johnson is spending less time in the United Kingdom. He likes to fly abroad and play the world statesman.

Were is not for Ukraine all the bad news in the UK would be an even bigger story. The Conseratives experienced a bounce in the polls due to Ukraine. But this is shrinking.

Polls show Labour on 39% and the Conservatives on 33%. Labour will rise as the Tories shrink. If there were a Westminster election tomorrow the Labour Party would be returned as a minority government. They could easily form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. The sectarian animus between the Lib Dem and Labour has diminished. Labour reviled the Liberal Democrats for being a junior coalition partner to the Conservatives in 2010. A dozen years later that is no longer pertinent. The two parties are forgiving each other. Getting the Tories out is the priority and they are willing to cooperate towards that objective. The SNP might be willing to offer Labour a confidence and supply arrangement. If push came to shove, Labour might be willing to make a confidence and supply arrangement with the Democratic Unionist Party. Gordon Brown even explored this possibility in 2010. Even if Labour did not make a formal arrangement with any party, Labour could count on the other non-Conservative Party to vote for a lot of Labour legislation. None of the other parties has any wish to see the Tories back in office. But all that might be unnecessary. The vagaries of the electoral system (First Past the Post) mean it is a distinct possibility that Labour would win a clear majority of the seats with 39% of the vote. In 2005 Tony Blair led Labour to a clear majority with only 35% of the votes. Cameron won a majority with only 39%. Then again Theresa May failed to win a majority with 42% of the vote in 2017. Such as the illogicalities and inconsistencies of the Westminster electoral system. 326 is the magic number. That gives a party just over half the seats. But as the Speaker does not vote and the 8 Sinn Fein MPs refuse to take and oath to their sovereign lady the Queen in fact one can have a working majority with only 317 seats. Labour would almost certainly achieve this with 39% of the vote. 

Crime is rising. The economy is stalling. The National Health Service is close to breaking point. The civil service is sclerotic and the educational system is an absurdity. Minimal benefit has been felt from Brexit. The Conservative and Unionist Party is bereft of goods ideas.  Illegal immigration has started to become a major headache once again. Sending refugees to Rwanda seems daft, costly and possibly illegal. People are beginning the ask; has the Tory Party lost its mind?

If 15% of Conservative MPs write to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee then a leadership vote of confidence can be held. The 1922 Committee represents Tory backbench MPs. The chairman is Sir Graham Brady. He confirmed in January he received a number of such letters but refused to indicate how many. A rumour is that 38 went in and 54 is the requisite number. Having sent in such a letter an MP can withdraw it. 

Many Tory MPs were minded to write to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee demanding a vote of confidence in the leader of the party (Johnson). But most of them held back in January. They wanted to see the outcome of the police investigation and the Sue Gray Report. Johnson has also been referred to the Standards and Privileges Committee of the House of Commons on suspicion of unbecoming conduct (i.e. lying to Parliament).

Tory MPs have seen the issue go from bad to worse. They did not want to trigger a vote of confidence unless they were sure there would be a clean kill. If BoJo were to win a vote of confidence then another one cannot be held for a twelvemonth. May was subjected to such a vote and won it. She carried on as PM but her authority had been fatally undermined. She continued to drag down her party’s standing. Therefore, a vote of confidence that leaves BoJo wounded but still in office would be the worst of all worlds for his party. The coupsters are waiting until they are sure they have the numbers. 

No First Lord of the Treasury has ever been investigated by the police pursuant to a criminal matter much less fined. This is a disgrace. He Office of Prime Minister is dragged through the mud. BoJo is unworthy of the office that he holds. 

Johnson does not have many fanatical loyalists left. He is the author of his own misfortune. He is his own worst enemy. Had he been a little responsible, self-disciplined and even honest then none of this would have transpired.

The first Thursday of May shall see local elections throughout most of the United Kingdom. These elections to local councils will be a litmus test of the political situation. The Tories hold about 6 500 council seats out of 20 000. Only about 5 000 council seats are being contested. The rest are not up for election this year. The Tories are projected to lose around 800 council seats.

The local elections this year were always going to be somewhat bad for the Tories. 12 years into a government and two and a half years through a Parliament, the governing party is usually unpopular. If the result is only mildly bad then BoJo will stay. But if it is a meltdown he will be pushed out. The trouble is what is the result is somewhere in between?

On the doorstep, the Boris Johnson issue is going down very badly. Tory campaigners cannot get electors to discuss borough issues. The voters say that a fish rots from the head down. BoJo sets the standard. This is a scandal and he needs to go.

I can already hear the knives being sharpened. BoJo surived the Ides of March. He will not long survive 5 May (the local elections). He wants to hang on until July 2022 – then he will have been PM for three years and therefore outlasted Theresa May. He is that shallow and vain. What a humiliation it would be to serve as PM for less time than a person he despises. 

Theresa May and other elder statespeople of the Conservative and Unionist Party have openly denounced Johnson for the fraud and scumbag he is. Johnson has no common decency. So far he is brassing it out. His apologies ring hollow. That is because they are a mere form of words for him. He is incapable of contrition of guilt. 

The Ukraine Conflict is being used as an excuse not to hold Johnson to account. We cannot change Prime Minister amidst this conflagration. That is a bogus argument. The United Kingdom is not at war. But even if it were at war then changing PM is not unthinkable nor unprecedented. The UK changed PM during the First World War, the Second World War (twice) and other wars. It is low of BoJo to seek to exploit the Russo-Ukrainian War to try to prolong his lease of office. His argument is that his lock down parties were trifling compared to the Ukrainian Conflict. 

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The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of this site. This site does not give financial, investment or medical advice.

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Ozymandias
Ozymandias
April 26, 2022

The Conservative Party is the Greatest political machine the Democratic world has ever seen, since the Athenian Greek Republic Created Democracy,and if pm Boris Johnson proves to be a threat to backbenchers seats, he’s Gone..

waine
waine
April 27, 2022

As a UK citizen I don’t see the point in voting in the local or general elections, we are now in the same boat as the US voters, two parties and practically the same agenda. Sir is an imposter and the Labour party should be disbanded if they still hold to the mantra that they are the party of the working class, they are no such thing. The labour party was scuppered along time ago and as such they are just another wing of the establishment.

Vera Gottlieb
Vera Gottlieb
April 27, 2022

One could only hope! I know the Queen is not to intervene/interfere but…this idiot has gone too far.

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