New Developments in Cyprus

Dr Evangelos Venetis, Expert on Islam and the Middle East

The informal Greek-Turkish agreement for “a calm summer in the Aegean” seems to have been observed up to date by both sides so far. Yet in other regions tensions remain high. Cyprus is one of them. In this context Turkey decided to activate the front of the Turkey occupied northern part of Cyprus in regard too the issue of Varosia, the military base of Lefkonikos, etc.

A regular tactic of Turkey’s revisionist stance over the past two decades has been to produce policies that exploit existing assets that are or are not in line with international law. These assets are turned into opportunities for initiatives by Ankara. Then the initiatives are planned and announced. Their announcement is a message to the other side, i.e. the powerful countries whose interests are at stake, to negotiate in order to secure gains on other issues in quid pro quo policy. If there are exchanges on other issues, then the implementation of the announcement on that issue is postponed or canceled and the initiative is redeemed as a diplomatic maneuver with specific gains and maintaining positive relations with some of the powerful countries. Otherwise, Ankara is implementing the announcement by choosing between escalation and conflict, risking the prospect of having losses in a psychological game with the other side.

Thus Ankara maintained and still maintains the role of the regional neutral party, taking advantage of its geopolitical surplus value. Over time, however, the revisionist nature of current Turkish foreign policy has brought it more frequently into conflict with its Western allies and closer to an inevitable rupture.

The issues of Varosia and Lefkonoiko in Cyprus are indicative examples of the above Turkish tactics. Hence, the day after the announcement, Turkey has been engaged in secret consultations with the US and Israel on what kind of gains it will make so that it does not fully or partially implement what it announced about Varosia. For instance, the type of gains the Turkish side is interested in are easing of financial sanctions against the Turkish economy, sprain the FETO network, advancing in the Palestinian case, acquiring a air base in Libya, neutralizing Kurdish rebels and a number of other issues. If there is no exchange, it is likely that Ankara will implement all or part of what was announced yesterday about Cyprus.

For its part, Athens follows the events without preventing them with its own actions. In the weeks to come Athens and Nicosia are expected to act minimally, i.e. to carry out diplomatic actions in the UN and the EU against the Turkish initiative. In essence, however, they will wait for the results of the secret bargain between Washington, Israel and Ankara. The outcome of this bazaar will determine the attitude of the Greek side in Greece and Cyprus. If the American-Turkish negotiations prevent the Turkish initiative, then stagnation will return to the Cyprus issue. Otherwise, the possibility of taking the dusty Greek Doctrine of a Single Defense Area out of the drawer, this time with the blessings of the USA, should not be ruled out in the medium term.