The Next Four: The long-term vision, and the hard choices ahead | SA Election Special 2026

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The dust has settled on what many are calling the “inevitable election,” but the tremors from the 2026 South Australian State Election are only just beginning to be felt. In this special, The Next Four, a collaboration between The Great Southern Discussion Club and RawCut, host Rhys Jarrett sits down with David Fox, President of Bendigo Trades Hall, to dissect a political map that has been fundamentally redrawn.

With Labor securing a staggering 33-seat supermajority, the conversation moves beyond the tally room to ask the hard questions: Why did the Liberal vote collapse? What does the surge of One Nation mean for the future of the “crossroads state”? And can the Malinauskas government translate its massive mandate into a new era of industrial sovereignty?

A Supermajority and a New Third Force

The headline figures are impossible to ignore. While Labor cruised to victory with 37.5% of the first preference vote, the real story lies in the fragmentation of the opposition. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation surged to 22.9%, leapfrogging the Liberal Party, which languished at 18.9%.

David Fox notes that while the Labor win was expected, the scale of the One Nation “shot in the arm” signals a profound shift in the electorate. The traditional two-party dynamic has been disrupted, leaving the Liberals diminished and searching for a role as a reputable opposition.

The Strategy Behind the Landslide: Defence and Rare Earths

The episode explores how the Malinauskas government successfully branded itself as the “party of government.” By leaning heavily into the AUKUS pact and South Australia’s position as a global supplier of critical minerals, Labor has courted international trade interests and big business alike.

Rhys and David discuss the “Justin Trudeau” effect—the polished, popular aesthetic of Peter Malinauskas—and how that may add to his undoing.

Rebuilding the Industrial Heart: From AUKUS to Whyalla

Perhaps the most compelling segment of the show tackles the future of South Australian manufacturing. For a state built on the back of post-war icons like Holden and Hills Hoist, the pivot to high-tech defence manufacturing via AUKUS represents a major gamble.

David Fox, a boilermaker by trade, argues for a return to civilian manufacturing. He raises the critical issue of the Whyalla Steelworks, currently in administration. In a provocative turn, the discussion looks at whether “nationalisation” should stop being a dirty word. For David, public ownership of the steelworks isn’t just about jobs; it’s about national sovereignty and ensuring the state has the materials to build its own future.

Topic Chapters and Timestamps

• 00:00 – The Inevitable Election: Introduction and Labor’s Landslide.
• 00:55 – The Numbers: Breaking down the 33-seat Supermajority.
• 01:52 – The One Nation Surge: How the Liberals lost their spot as the primary opposition.
• 04:27 – Why Labor Won: AUKUS, Energy, and Global Strategy.
• 07:34 – The Malinauskas Image: Aesthetics and Governance.
• 08:09 – The “Liberal Wing”: Neoliberalism and the Labor Party tradition.
• 11:06 – Manufacturing Legacy: Looking back at Elizabeth and the post-war boom.
• 15:32 – The AUKUS Gamble: Defence vs. Peacetime Manufacturing.
• 18:43 – Vocational Future: The role of new Technical Colleges.
• 21:56 – The Whyalla Crisis: The case for Nationalisation and Sovereignty.
• 24:27 – Conclusion and how to join the Great Southern Discussion Club.

Notable Quotes

1. Rhys Jarrett: “You could reasonably call it the inevitable election. The South Australian State Election for 2026 with a landslide towards Labor.”
2. David Fox: “What surprised me though, it was actually the high percentage of the One Nation vote… it is a very big shot in the arm for them.”
3. David Fox: “South Australia is in that strategic spot on a world economic level, not just even on a national level.”
4. Rhys Jarrett: “With the Malinauskas government… he has tried to promote this kind of almost Justin Trudeau kind of image.”
5. David Fox: “I think that it shouldn’t be a dirty word, a nationalisation… we need to have our own industries for our own national sovereignty.”

Speech FAQs:

Question: What were the final primary vote percentages for the major parties in the 2026 SA Election?
Answer: According to the transcript, Labor received 37.5% of first preference votes, followed by One Nation with 22.9%, the Liberal Party with 18.9%, and the Greens with 10.4%.

Question: Why is South Australia being referred to as a “strategic spot” in the world economy?
Answer: David Fox explains that South Australia is a critical supplier of minerals necessary for modern technology like microchips and electric cars, alongside its heavy involvement in the AUKUS defence pact.

Question: What is the suggested solution for the struggling Whyalla Steelworks?
Answer: David Fox argues that the government should consider nationalisation or public ownership, backed by financial guarantees and modernization, to ensure national sovereignty and industrial capacity.

Full Transcript available at: https://gsdc.znn.au/saelection2026