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What explains the stunning decline in Covid-19 cases?

Eric Zuesse

The global peak in daily new cases of Covid-19 disease was January 8th, and this was likewise the peak in U.S. new cases. Globally, it was 845,693, and U.S. was 308,443. The plunge since then has produced, as-of February 5th, globally, 495,888, and U.S., 132,045 (and, on February 7th in the U.S., that was down to 89,691). So: the decline between January 8th and February 5th was a change of -42% globally, and -57% in U.S.

What explains this?

On February 8th, the news-site “Zero Hedge” headlined “Even ‘Scientist’ Models Now Forecast The COVID Scourge Ending By The Summer” and closed: “This continued improvement – and acceleration of economic growth due to little need for lockdowns and restrictions – suggests that the US economy – and broader society as well – should be able to move beyond covid some time in the early summer.” That prediction was based upon:

Finally, and in the clearest indication that we are almost out of the woods, even “scientific models” expect Covid to be a non-event by June. BofA notes that “a fresh update to the University of Washington IHME’s COVID-19 model shows they had underestimated the current rapid pace of improvement in the US coronavirus situation”, but are now forecasting another wave of increasing daily new infections starting in the second half of this month (Figure 2) – probably due to the new more infectious strains of the virus. However, and as we previewed first back in December, “due to ongoing vaccinations of the most vulnerable, the negative consequences in the form of hospitalizations this time around are expected to be diminished significantly.”

In fact IHME expects the number of people hospitalized in the US with COVID-19 to continue to decline every single day through June 1st, which is the end of their forecast horizon (Figure 3).

How realistic is that optimistic prediction?

It is based upon an assumption that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), at the University of Washington, is a reliable predictor of the course of this pandemic — which is, thus-far, actually false, not true. Furthermore, IHME’s current projection (which is based not upon the leading indicator, which is daily new cases, but instead upon the lagging indictor, which is daily deaths) simply assumes that the blip downward from the January 25th peak in the number of daily deaths from Covid-19 downward to January 29th — that mere 4-day decline from the peak in this lagging indicator — will continue into March and beyond into at least June, and that if the wearing of masks suddenly increases starting in late march, then things will be even better than that.

This ridiculous projection is supposedly based upon “‘Scientist’ Models” but it is certainly not based upon scientific models.

So, then: What explains the stunning decline in Covid-19 cases? This question isn’t even being discussed — at least not scientifically — and certainly not publicly, in any scientific way. That’s how bad the ‘news’-media (and “social ‘scientists’”) actually are.

The Covid-19 plunge, of around half, within just the past month, is huge global (and local) news, but it is being scientifically analyzed nowhere in the ‘news’-media.

A ‘news’-consumer is either an intelligent skeptic, or else a fool.

—————

Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of  They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.

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The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Duran.

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Alfred
Alfred
February 8, 2021

They simply altered the number of cycles in the preprogrammed PCR test cassettes. Instead of giving 97% per cent false positives, it now gives 50% false positives. Quite simple really if you control the production line of these gadgets. 🙂

James
James
Reply to  Alfred
February 8, 2021

Has there been any reports that this has occurred? I am familiar with the PCR testing and the problems involved.
I understand that the case definition has changed so that it is a positive test plus actually symptoms. This eliminates the false positives!

Sue Rarick
February 8, 2021

The simplest verifiable reason would be if they reduced PCR-35+CT to a lower number like PCR 24- That would almost eradicate it but my guess is they reduced it to around PCR30. That would reduce it by about 50%.
Mind you the actual people that would get the flu would be unchanged (it’s just the asymptomatic numbers that would drop) and the actual cases of Covid-19 as primary cause of death would still remain under 15% of all Covid-19 reported deaths.

Ricky
Ricky
February 8, 2021

Check the stats. Jan 8th is exactly the average seasonal peak of deaths, whatever the cause. Year after year after year. Totally predictable. The pandemic ended in May 2020.

Ricky
Ricky
Reply to  Eric Zuesse
February 10, 2021

Precisely. Seasonal deaths (by all causes, not only covid19) reach a maximum value in the first weeks of January. My calculations for Spain, one of the allegedly most affected countries, show death numbers perfectly normal from October 2020 all the way to January 2021 (adjusted to reflect the increase in population). Meaning that the predictable number of people died, plus 0 excess deaths due to new causes, ie. Covid 19. Shocking, yes, but it’s official & final data: https://www.epdata.es/datos/mortalidad-estimada-registrada-cualquier-causa-coincidiendo-epidemia-coronavirus/521/espana/106

Ricky
Ricky
Reply to  Eric Zuesse
February 10, 2021

By the way, registered flu cases in the current Spanish season are just 6 to date, vs. 850 000 in 2018. Draw your own conclusions

Paul Cardin
February 8, 2021

This explains it all. Right back to March 2020, when the effectiveness and suitability of PCR tests were first questioned. Also linked is the planned correction of the PCR cycle rate and – as forecast in December by Off-guardian.org, how the media would push “Look! The Covid19 vaccines are working!” on the strength of the engineered, plummeting figures:

https://wirralinittogether.blog/2021/01/23/and-so-it-begins-the-world-health-organisations-recent-announcement-that-rt-pcr-cycle-rates-were-to-be-amended-to-the-correct-level-the-resultant-drop-in-cases-will-be-used-by-the-media-to-j/

penrose
penrose
February 8, 2021

I just saw a guy with a lantern walking past my house. He said his name was Diogenes.

FranBrown
FranBrown
February 8, 2021

In my career of forty odd years, I learned right from the start that you can make research mean anything you want it to mean. The medical profession do it frequently, they set out to prove this or that, and weight the factors accordingly. This is why one week you’re told that “coffee is harmful to you”. Six months down the line, some other doctor will start his research and eventually “prove” that coffee isn’t at all harmful. (Just a hypothetical argument). Likewise, statistics.

Sue Rarick
Reply to  FranBrown
February 8, 2021

It’s called Grant money research – you get paid to get the result the folk paying you want to hear. Had a friend that was a math theoretician and he used to use his math to mess with folk and proved any number of numbers always equaled 2. It was fun to watch

Ricky
Ricky
Reply to  FranBrown
February 10, 2021

Exactly!

Vera Gottlieb
Vera Gottlieb
February 8, 2021

And now the battle is on, to get the mutants under control.

Smoking Eagle
Smoking Eagle
Reply to  Vera Gottlieb
February 9, 2021

Good luck with that! They haven’t got the mutants from Spanish flu under control yet in spite of 70/80 years of developing flu vaccines for each of the two hemispheres. The 2018/19 vaccine for the northern seasonal flu was only 29% effective. There are countless viruses unknown to science that could well emerge in the future from where they have been safely locked away in ice in the glaciers that are now receding due to global warming.

Smoking Eagle
Smoking Eagle
February 9, 2021

In 1918 when the Spanish flu (also a virus) emerged, the world population was 1.5 billion. One-third of the world population was infected and 50-100 million people died. Two years later it was practically gone, and there was no vaccine for 20 years. Now we have a world population of 7.8 billion and Covid has only infected a relatively small percentage of people. Only 106,677,092 cases and 2,326,830 deaths out of 7.8 billion as of today. Of course, Spanish flu is not the same as Covid-19, however, it did kill 50 to 100 million people out of 1.5 billion, and… Read more »

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