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Why the United States Will Not Attack Iran

Submitted by Steve Brown…

The world has become so accustomed to US hubris, bluster, arrogance, and conceit, over so many years, most people accept even the most absurd statements coming from US State as a matter of course. But like the jester to the Court, informed opinion is aware that the United States is a spent force, incapable of carrying out its hollow threats versus Iran.  And here’s why.

Global alliances have shifted

Turkey has defacto announced its withdrawal from NATO, by its purchase of S-400 missiles. That purchase and collaboration with Russia guarantees its departure from NATO, even if Turkey has not publicly announced such a withdrawal.  Furthermore, while Turkey’s military bases host US aircraft and operations, Turkey says it will not allow its bases to be used in any attack on Iran, by the US.

Iraq, an ally of Iran, has likewise stated that it will not allow its territory to be used as a base for attacking Iran.

Next, Imran Khan’s Pakistan has moved away from its alliance with the US to court China. China is Pakistan’s largest trading partner, and China has guaranteed security to Pakistan for Kashmir. Thus, no bases in Pakistan will be provided to the United States for any attack on Iran.

China and Russia have warned Washington too that it must not attack Iran. Iran has guarantees from Russia, China, Pakistan, Turkey, and even Japan and India that its economic future is secure… despite US sanctions.

So, only Saudia remains as a host for US aggression versus Iran.  But Saudia has much to lose by hosting US aggression, especially with Russia pushing OPEC+.  And even the largely defunct Arab League opposes US aggression versus Iran, from any Saudi base.

Iran will fight back

Next, consider the military force that Iran has at its disposal. From the Grad to the Kornet, expect an announcement soon that S-400’s and other advanced armaments will be provided to Iran to ensure its right to defend itself. That, in conjunction with an already formidable array of defensive weapons to secure Iran’s borders and sea lanes will guarantee a formidable defense.

The former United States cannot afford another new war

While the Federal Reserve may print the USD at will, a new war – especially a major war versus Iran – will weaken the US economically, despite the gamed casino numbers we see daily from Wall Street.

If the US were to attack Iran, be sure that the oil market will be mightily affected, causing oil prices to surge exponentially. Indeed, such an oil price effect may be the prick needed to pop the multi-quadrillion inflated USD bubble of public debt and derivative speculation that can burst again… just as it burst in 2008-2009.  But this time when the financial collapse occurs, and as Donald Trump has warned, the new collapse will render the financial collapse of 2008-2009 to be a picnic.

The US is not capable of defeating Iran in a conventional war

No need to list the many failed US interventions of the past twenty years — whether in Iraq, Syria, Libya or Afghanistan…  on that subject no further exploration is needed!


Steve Brown is the author of “Iraq: the Road to War” (Sourcewatch) editor of “Bush Administration War Crimes in Iraq” (Sourcewatch) “Trump’s Limited Hangout” and “Federal Reserve: Out-sourcing the Monetary System to the Money Trust Oligarchs Since 1913”; Steve is an antiwar activist and historian of the monetary system and editor of Novus Confidential investigative reports.

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ian seedVera GottliebRichard Steven HacksmokefilledroomET, drone home Recent comment authors
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Hmmm
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Hmmm

This all assumes that the US has rational people at the helm. Is that assumption in itself….rational?

Richard Steven Hack
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Richard Steven Hack

Yeah, yeah, I’ve heard all these reasons why before…and they’re wrong. The problem with all the reasons why is that none of them apply to the people who are behind these threats – namely, Israel, the US neocons, the military-industrial complex which stands to profit and the oil companies ditto. All the reasons apply to the US taxpayer, the US non-military economy, the US (and Iranian) troops who will die, and the Iranian and other civilians across the Middle East who will die. And as far as that set of persons I mention in the first paragraph are concerned –… Read more »

SteveK9
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SteveK9

This is after the Iraq War, not before. If you think that makes no difference, I think you are mistaken, even among your select group and certainly among the general population of America and the Western countries. There is also no possibility, both politically or logistically for there to be a ‘land’ invasion of Iran. Even if Saudi Arabia could be used as a staging area, I don’t think Iran will sit there for 6-9 months waiting for the US to get ready, as did Saddam. So, it would just be bombing, and again Iran is not going to sit… Read more »

Richard Steven Hack
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Richard Steven Hack

So what? No one is saying Iran won’t fight back. That doesn’t stop a war from starting. Today we see a story claiming Trump has already authorized a “retaliatory strike” on Iran but pulled back at the last minute when planes were in the air. So apparently “after the Iraq war” doesn’t have the meaning for Trump that it does for you. This clearly shows the US Deep State – which is leading Trump by the nose – fully intends to start a war with Iran, regardless of any “difficulties” – just like they did in Iraq.

smokefilledroom
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smokefilledroom

Interesting, analysis.provided in the article. excellent reasons, logical but 350,000,000 Governed Americans are a separate nation, independent of the 527 USA governors and the 527 governors are yet another separate nation, controlled by the global elite, so to speak, who dictate to the governors and who control the power that rules the world through an interconnected system of bankers, banks, and monopoly equipped corporations. Bliss is a weapon of war. Propaganda and secrecy camouflage problems, situations, environments and the delicate balances your article cites. The Bliss of the Governed (TBoeG) is a weapon of war. The rule of law and… Read more »

ET, drone home
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ET, drone home

Iran today issued a statement: “We’re sorry we shot down America’s drone. Our radar showed it was a civilian A300 in attack mode. We tried contacting the pilot several times to verify who it was but as Trump tweeted, there was no one inside to respond. Oh well, accidents happen.”

Vera Gottlieb
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Vera Gottlieb

Cannot afford another war? It hasn’t afforded previous wars but that never stopped it.

ian seed
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ian seed

Multi “quadrillion” inflated bubble ?

Be serious.

Who are the real warmongers? Probably not who you think.