“Vicious circle” with Ukrainian F-16s

The Ukrainian Air Force suffered significant losses at the beginning of the war with Russia from missile strikes and aviation as Ukraine has been using an outdated fleet of aircraft, including Su-24 frontline bombers, Su-25 attack aircraft, Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters.

The war-torn country has maintained the required air force strength by purchasing Soviet aircraft from Eastern Europe and the rest of the world. For instance, in August 2022, Western allies provided Ukraine with four Su-25 attack aircraft from Northern Macedonia.

However, new losses of Ukrainian airpower were inevitable as the military confrontation gained momentum. At the same time, the stock of Soviet aircraft that could be transferred to Kyiv was running out. The solution to this problem was to negotiate the transfer of F-16s, the most mass-produced supersonic fighters of the fourth generation, to the Ukrainian army.

The issue of transferring F-16s to Ukraine has been discussed repeatedly by Kyiv and its allies. The question was raised separately at a meeting in Ramstein, Germany, dedicated to aid Ukraine. In June 2023, at the height of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, there were active discussions on the transfer of these fighters to Kyiv and the creation of infrastructure and conditions for their exploitation.

However, it is also worth noting that the Ukrainian offensive collapsed largely due to the air superiority of the Russian forces, as Ukraine’s tank forces could not withstand the attacks of Russian helicopters.

At the same time, in the summer of 2023, Jens Stoltenberg announced to journalists that the training of Ukrainian pilots to operate F-16s had already begun. The NATO Secretary General also spoke about the preparation of a training programme for Ukrainian engineers and technicians to maintain the aircraft.

The US, the UK, the Netherlands and Denmark announced plans to transfer the fighter jets to Ukraine. They were later joined by a number of other countries. However, the issue of deliveries has not been addressed since then.

            In early January 2024, Denmark announced that it was postponing the shipment of F-16s. Prior to that, the Netherlands, which, like Denmark, said that it would postpone the deliveries, citing the unpreparedness of Ukraine’s logistics and engineering capacities to service the fighters.

In its article, Reuters reported that the Ukrainian army may face challenges in using F-16 fighter jets as the runways of Ukraine’s airfields are not adapted for the use of such aircraft on them. Moreover, the country’s air bases are subject to regular aerial attacks by Russia.

Damaged, destroyed or makeshift runways are not suitable for F-16s. Whereas the Soviet MiG-29s were designed to operate in harsh conditions and have lowered louvres over the air intakes that protect the aircraft from dirt, rocks and other natural debris entering the engines, the F-16 needs a long and smooth runway.

Yuriy Ignat, an adviser to Ukraine’s Air Force Command, recently echoed Reuters’ assertion. In an interview with the Ukrainian publication Focus, he claimed that the Ukrainian army was concerned about storing munitions supplied to it within the country because of the high risk of their destruction by Russian airstrikes. He also stressed that what the Ukrainian Armed Forces feared most of all was the loss of vital stocks of missiles for air defence systems and, in the future, losing its fleet of promised F-16 fighter jets.

“Intelligence, unfortunately, they have it working, and it doesn’t make much sense to place full ammunition depots in Ukraine. It’s the same story with F-16 aircraft. Everything seems to be ready, but we don’t take them, why? They will arrive to us and become a good target,” Ignat said. According to him, the fighters will be delivered to Ukrainian territory when the necessary technical base for them is ready.

In fact, Ukraine confirms that establishing the required base to receive the F-16s is hindered by Russian airstrikes. For example, on the night of January 18, Russia hit the Starokostiantyniv Air Base in Khmelnytska Oblast with drones for the fifth time since the start of the year.

Other Ukrainian airfields have also been subjected to similar drone and missile strikes. As soon as the Ukrainian army restores the infrastructure including the airfield’s runway, it is struck again. And it is not necessarily carried out with expensive cruise or ballistic missiles – Russia often uses cheap kamikaze drones, which are available in almost unlimited quantities. In order only to fully protect its vast territories, but also to turn the situation in its favour, Ukraine needs more air defence systems.

In addition to the air threat, Kyiv is increasingly facing opposition among allies, particularly influenced by the conflict between the White House and the US Congress over further funding for Ukraine. Disagreements are reaching the point where already concluded agreements are being drowned in bureaucracy. For instance, the situation around the NASAMS surface-to-air missile system, which Canada promised a year ago to buy from the United States and transfer to Ukraine.

According to the Canadian TV channel CTV, Kyiv is still waiting for the promised system. At the same time, the Canadian Defence Department’s documentation indicates that Ottawa transferred $406 million to Washington for the purchase of NASAMS SAMs back in March 2023, with the US federal government signing a contract with Raytheon for its production.

However, the Kongsberg Group, which is involved in the development of these SAMs, stated that the firm had no such agreement with the US or Canadian side. It takes a long time to resolve such delays, whereas Ukraine needs modern air defence systems now.

The unfolding situation resembles a vicious circle in which Ukraine needs to reach air parity to achieve an advantage over the Russian army. However, Kyiv’s supporters are delaying the shipment of F-16s until the relevant infrastructure is ready. Russia, realising this, regularly pummels Ukrainian airfields, preventing Kyiv from getting them into proper condition.

The problem can be partially solved by supplying additional air defence systems, but no new solutions are foreseen at the moment. Yet each delayed day only exacerbates the situation.