Rosstat – Russia’s Central Statistics Board – has released figures for inflation at the end of July, which show the fall in inflation in Russia breaking all forecasts.
Prices in Russia grew only 0.1% in July. In the last week of July prices actually fell. The result is that the annual rate of inflation at the end of July fell to 3.9% from 4.4% at the end of June, when inflation briefly rose because of seasonal factors.
August is usually a month of falling prices in Russia, so it is likely annual inflation will be significantly below 3.9% at the end of the summer.
The usual pattern of inflation in Russia is for a rise in prices towards the end of the winter as the Christmas/New Year holiday season approaches. Even allowing for this it is now a virtual certainty that the inflation in Russia throughout the whole year will be well below the 4% target set by the Central Bank.
A target which was widely thought unachievable just a short time ago now looks certain to be exceeded.
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Duran.