MASS CASUALTIES

From what is being reported there have been about 40,000 Ukraine civilian casualties in the almost three-year Ukraine / Russia conflict. It has been reported that about 27,000 of that number were injured, not killed. According to the available information, there were about 46,000 civilians killed in the Afghanistan War and between 100,000 and 200,000 civilians killed in the Gulf Wars.

Why have there not been mass civilian casualties in the Ukraine conflict?  I think we must look at the capabilities versus intentions of the Russian leadership. I believe the Russian leadership have viewed the Special Military Operation in Ukraine more as a “civil war” than a war between mortal enemies.

From the beginning, it was obvious that the Russian military had the capability to inflict mass casualties on the Ukraine population by directly striking major urban centers if they chose to do that. They have consistently chosen not to do that except by using precision guided weapons with limited collateral damage.  Furthermore, the Russians have used these weapons against urban targets mostly at night when it is most likely that the civilians are not present in the facilities being targeted. For the Russian leadership this has been a “limited” application of combat power to achieve their stated goal.

Furthermore, many of the small villages and towns which have been used by the Ukraine military as fortified defensive positions have been evacuated of their civilian population. Some of the large urban centers have also had a great deal of the population evacuated.

If we look at the American effort in the Iraq war, we saw large numbers of civilians killed and wounded in the urban areas especially in the Bagdad area. Although the civilian population was clearly not the focus for American combat power, many civilians died in the collateral effects of the tremendous amount of fire used against enemy combatants who were embedded with the civilian population.

“Total” war is characterized by a country applying the full force of their combat power against the enemy’s military forces as well as their civilian population. This was certainly the case in World War II by both the Allies and Axis powers. The number of civilian casualties was horrific by any measure. In “limited” war, the enemy’s military forces and their capability to produce weapons and ammunition are the targets for the application of combat power.

I think the operative term that best characterizes the Russian use of their very large capability to inflict huge destruction on civilian centers is restraint. We can only hope they continue to hold back the full capabilities they have to create immense numbers of civilian casualties in Ukraine.

As we look at the “end game” of this unnecessary war which could have ended in the late Spring of 2022 with the “Istanbul Agreement,” it might be worth a little time to look back at the July 23, 2022, article I published here on THEDURAN.

A LOSING HAND – The Duran