Hamas’ plan for Gaza

War is relentless. The one who maintains his deterrent ability and neutralizes the opponent will be the winner. If both sides maintain their deterrence, then the war will end in a draw. In Palestine the war is progressing ambivalently with the difference that the less equipped Palestinians of Hamas and Islamic Jihad are victorious even with a draw. This is something that Tel Aviv knows, and that is why it is prolonging the war in order to find a way to effectively penetrate the Hamas Catacombs network and overthrow the strong resistance of the Palestinians, unfavorable to Tel Aviv. To no avail…

During the last month, the Western media has been highlighting the various Israeli plans for the future of the Gaza Strip after the war,     but without the war having ended and without the outcome of the war being clear. As it is the first time since 1948 that Palestinians are in uncharted waters, developments are uncertain even for the next day.

Hamas, having put up a strong resistance and inflicted significant losses on the Israelis, is seeking an immediate end to the war in order to achieve a draw. On the ground Hamas is as strong as it was on October 7th, having managed to remain intact in the Strip but failing to protect the Palestinian population and ground from indiscriminate shelling and internal displacement from Tel Aviv.

In order to achieve the truce, Hamas must enforce it, and this can only be done on the battlefield. The longer Hamas successfully resists, the sooner Israel will realize the futility of this war and seek a successful way out of the war. Then it will be time to exchange the prisoners.

The armistice agreement will form the basis for building mutual trust measures with the release of prisoners from both sides while helping the struggling Palestinian civilian population to emerge from the humanitarian crisis it has fallen into. At the political level, the armistice will mean the indirect recognition and acceptance of both sides by the other side on a mutual level. This process will be time-consuming but it may build confidence measures that will lead to the reconstruction of Gaza.

Whether this war will contribute to the creation of an independent Palestinian state is a short-term question. Hamas realistically seeks at least the resumption of negotiations in this direction. In such an eventuality, Hamas will seek to join the Palestine Liberation Organization in the meantime. In this way it will have turned its military superiority into political influence within the wider Palestinian leadership and will have set a legacy for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the basis of the Two State Solution.