Iran Will Not Attack Israel

Nima’s guest says Iran is “too wise” to attack Israel at this point in retaliation for Israel’s continuing occupation of Lebanon. They will leave that to Hezbollah. What they will do is close the Strait of Hormuz. This will put huge pressure on Trump and Vance to make Israel to get out of Lebanon for real. They can stop all US military, economic and diplomatic cover for Israel. Threats might not work, but actually stopping weapons shipments and military assistance would, I think.

The guest also says that Iran is not interested in getting nuclear weapons, because it does not want to be seen as a regional hegemon. What it is seeking is to form a regional partnership in West Asia, that together with Russia and China will become part of the “New World Order” now forming to replace US imperial hegemony. Pakistan has become an important part of this regional partnership being formed. The petrodollar which has been the financial basis of US imperialism will disappear and no longer be able to finance US imperial adventures. The US may try to compensate by acting as a regional hegemon in its own hemisphere, but that is not going to work either. It can’t kick China out of all the places in South and Central American where they are building ports and fast rail. The US will cease to be an empire, and have to deal with its own economic problems. It will have to join the “New World Order” instead. It is ironic to one who heard George Bush Senior declare when the Soviet Union collapsed that there would now be a “New World Order”, which he defined as “what we say goes”. That was the “unipolar moment”. It lasted 35 years. Now we have a “New World Order” in which what we say doesn’t go. We will just have to lose the imperial hubris and start behaving like normal members of human society. I think we can do that.

The 14th point of the MoU is of special interest because it specifies that the final security arrangement for West Asia will be ratified by the Security Council of the United Nations. That means that the US, Britain and France will not veto it. It also means to strengthen the concept and principles of international law contained in the UN Charter, which all countries, especially Russia and China support and always have supported. I think the UN will have to be somehow reorganized and reformed to reflect the reality of the geopolitical changes that have taken place in the last 80 years, but I do not think it should be abandoned. Its basic principles are still valid. Since the state of Israel has been violating those basic principles since its recognition by the UN in 1948, its membership in the UN should be rescinded and its ambassador replaced by a representative of the Palestinian people.

Professor John Mearsheimer with his “Realist” theory of great power relations predicts that what he calls a world of economic cooperation based on mutual interest will be prevented by great power rivalries. The “New World Order” is then dream that will be prevented by these rivalries. I hope he is wrong and that human society is evolving beyond these conflicts inherited from earlier times. The challenges opened up by new scientific discoveries and technology lie ahead.