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Days of Russia’s CSTO are numbered: Putin’s Article 5 is worthless

KERCH, CRIMEA, RUSSIA - JULY 20, 2020: Russia's President Vladimir Putin holds a video conference meeting with Mikhail Degtyarev, chairman of the Russian State Duma's Committee on Physical Culture, Sport, Tourism and Youth Affairs. Alexei Druzhinin/Russian Presidential Press and Information Office/TASS Ðîññèÿ. Êåð÷ü. Ïðåçèäåíò ÐÔ Âëàäèìèð Ïóòèí âî âðåìÿ âñòðå÷è ñ ïðåäñåäàòåëåì êîìèòåòà Ãîñäóìû ÐÔ ïî ôèçè÷åñêîé êóëüòóðå, ñïîðòó, òóðèçìó è äåëàì ìîëîäåæè Ìèõàèëîì Äåãòÿðåâûì â ðåæèìå âèäåîêîíôåðåíöèè. Ïðåçèäåíò ÐÔ Âëàäèìèð Ïóòèí íàçíà÷èë äåïóòàòà Ãîñäóìû Ìèõàèëà Äåãòÿðåâà âðåìåííî èñïîëíÿþùèì îáÿçàííîñòè ãëàâû Õàáàðîâñêîãî êðàÿ. Àëåêñåé Äðóæèíèí/ïðåññ-ñëóæáà ïðåçèäåíòà ÐÔ/ÒÀÑÑ

It is no secret that the Caucasus has always been a hard to chew piece of land – not only for the Tsar-era Kremlin, but also for the communist-era Kremlin and the “democratic” thug-era Kremlin, despite the fact that for some time now the unyielding mountain men are being propitiated with the carrot, not the stick, as was the case in the nineties.

Eastern Europe, especially the Baltic states, can let out a brief sigh of relief while the Kremlin is preoccupied with its eternal fight against the armed Chechen opposition by investing huge amounts of money in Kadyrov’s clan. And the socioeconomic situation in Russia’s other Caucasian subjects, for instance, Dagestan, Ingushetia, North Ossetia, Abkhazia, Kabardino-Balkaria and Vladikavkaz is far from being great, i.e. it is barely livable. Then there is the dispute between the Armenians and Azerbaijanis over Nagorno-Karabakh, which has been ongoing already since the collapse of the USSR, of course not without the involvement of the Kremlin. Putin’s regime has always worked very hard to maintain influence in the region without sparing shame or resources which are getting increasingly scarce each day.

You see, the Kremlin was able to maintain “harmony” between Baku and Yerevan for quite a while by dragging Armenia into the CSTO and other international organizations created by Putin, allowing him to advance his interests in the region – like a wolf among sheep.

Everything was fine for the Kremlin until a more powerful and shameless wolf appeared from Turkey and provided support to Azerbaijan. Turkey’s engagement has seriously shaken up the “Caucasus chessboard” and comes at a time when Putin is recklessly damaging his own prestige and influence. In other words, Putin’s carrot policy is no longer effective in the Caucasus, which is proven by the war between the ancient enemies – Azerbaijan and Armenia.

For the Kremlin, this is a serious challenge because not only the honor and prestige of the CSTO is at stake, but also its existence. I believe Nagorno-Karabakh is a hole accidentally created by the Kremlin itself in which the CSTO will fall into and disappear any time soon.

Formally, the CSTO does not have the authority to interfere because neither Nagorno-Karabakh nor Azerbaijan are members of the organization. While no one touches Armenia, the Russian army must remain idle, at least officially. Baku has clearly stated that it is interested only in regaining Azerbaijani land, i.e. only the internationally unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh.

If the Kremlin decided to engage in resolving the conflict using force, it would be faced with certain problems. First, it would be nearly impossible for the Kremlin to supply its 102nd Military Base in Gyumri (Armenia). Second, this would immediately mean the Kremlin lost its status as a “peacekeeper” in the Caucasus region, and maybe this would even force some politicians in the Old Europe to open their eyes. But if the Kremlin decided it doesn’t care about any of this, Nagorno-Karabakh would be doomed just like the role of Moscow as Yerevan’s provider of security. And this would mean the of the CSTO.

This conflict wasn’t resolved back in 1992, when Moscow created the CSTO, but it was nonetheless decided to accept Armenia into the military organization. Now, when the geopolitical situation has drastically changed not in favor of Russia and when Putin has nearly ruined the “mighty” superpower, the war in Nagorno-Karabakh could create serious problems for the Kremlin’s masters because the Kremlin would have once again betrayed its allies – the Armenians of Armenia.

What is more, the joint forces of Putin and Assad are more frequently suffering shameful losses in Idlib. It is rumored that Assad’s funeral is scheduled for early 2021. And whenever someone mentions the successful strikes by Turkish drones in Libya in April, the hearts of the mercenaries working for the private military company Wagner – owned by Putin’s chef Prigozhin – start beating a little faster.

It looks like Putin is not sure what to do, because if Turkey is triumphant in Nagorno-Karabakh it will expose Moscow’s weakness and put an end to the existence of the CSTO: everyone in the Caucasus, except the Armenians, will want to be friends with Erdoğan. The small Muslim nations, long oppressed by Moscow, will want to do the same. And if the Kremlin decides to use force against the small nations of the Caucasus – and it is more than likely that this will happen – it will only escalate the situation and provoke radical terrorist attacks in Russia. Does anyone even know how many Russians are left, for instance, in Moscow?

All in all, it looks like the Kremlin is rapidly losing its political influence in the Caucasus. If Nagorno-Karabakh is brought under the control of Azerbaijan, it would spell the end of one of the longest conflicts maintained by Russia. In one way or another, the region will become pro-Western, and moreover Turkey is NATO and NATO is the US. You can draw conclusions yourselves.

One thing is certain: the war in Nagorno-Karabakh proves that the Kremlin is no longer able to handle external and internal “irritants”, meaning that Russia has lost its status as a superpower. Its ratings as a “peacekeeper”, just like the prestige of the CSTO in the Caucasus region, are inevitably falling deeper and deeper into one of Nagorno-Karabakh’s chasms.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s propaganda media outlets continue spreading illusions of grandeur based on Stalin’s ideology, forcing the Russian ambassador in Latvia along with a handful of people shouting “Crimea is ours” to cross Ķīšezers and liberate Riga from made-up fascists. But now we can see that Moscow as the leader of the CSTO is unable to provide the promised military and political support to one of its closest military allies – even though all the contracts were solemnly signed long ago.

P.S. Article 5 of the CSTO is worthless!

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Hector
Hector
October 21, 2020

Where did the duran get such a nonsensical article?

Person
Person
Reply to  Hector
October 21, 2020

Latvia, it seems (I have failed to find any mentions of Augusts Augustiņs on the Internet, but “Augustiņs” seems to be a Latvian last name). This is supported by the fact that the article mentions Latvia and Baltic Republics (which really have nothing to do with NKR-AZ conflict) more than once.

And we all know that Latvia is currently very anti-Russian.

It doesn’t mean that the author is automatically wrong. It just means that any unsubstantiated claims (i.e. all the claims he makes) by this author should be taken with a pound of salt.

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Person
October 21, 2020

Of course it is a Latvian name. Only Latvians could write such a hateful, spiteful, nonsensical text. Sometimes I wonder who makes the choice for the articles to be published. Do the editors read the published texts at all?

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
October 21, 2020

There is a saying in German, “Der dumme August” (“stupid August”, fool on the hill). Nomen est omen!

Davids
Davids
Reply to  Hector
October 21, 2020

Both the name and the paranoia about Russian invasion reveals the “baltichood” of this idiot. More precisely he’s Latvian, a russophobic place as much as Western Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, with a history of collaboraton in the extermination of the jews and with the nazis in general. Funny thing is that they hate the Russians, who gave them national dignity after the 1918 revolution, while under the German rule they have been their servants and slaves for centuries. The vast predominance of latvianised German surnames reveals this, in the same fashion that the African slaves got the surnames from their masters.… Read more »

Olivia Kroth
October 21, 2020

Everything that President Putin writes makes sense and will last, because he is a man with intelligence and wisdom, which unfortunately cannot be said about Latvians. Do they still have the yearly Nazi parades in Riga?

In Latvian:

Viss, ko raksta Krievijas prezidents Putins, ir derīgs, jo viņš ir cilvēks ar inteliģenci un sapratni, ko diemžēl nevar teikt par latviešiem. Vai Rīgā joprojām notiek ikgadējās nacistu parādes?

Last edited 1 month ago by Olivia Kroth
Henk Fokkema
Henk Fokkema
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
November 5, 2020

Thanks for the info about these Nazi parades.
I was not aware of that, here in Holland is not the right place to get some “exotic”news.

Helen B
Helen B
October 21, 2020

Not a fan of President Putin then …
I’m not sure why The Duran would entertain this article.

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Helen B
October 24, 2020

I think that the two Greek editors do not like President Putin as much as before, since he keeps in close touch with his Turkish ally Erdogan, instead of favouring Greece.

President Putin is a very solid, down-to-earth politician. He might respect the Greek Government more if they were more reliable, keep their promises and got rid of their huge debts. Russia does not like beggars coming to ask for alms.

Last edited 1 month ago by Olivia Kroth
bobert
bobert
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
October 25, 2020

i agree with you.
it’s been quite obvious in their youtube conversations.
poor boys

bobert
bobert
October 25, 2020

pulp fiction by a pulp-headed author.

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  bobert
October 26, 2020

True, bobert! The only nice thing about this article is the good photo of President Putin. Healthy body, sound mind! It shows.

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