Why Did Russia Leave Syria?

Including the Hmmeim airbase – reported to be abandoned by December 9th, 2024 and the Naval base at Tartus, why would Russia abandon such strategic assets? Interestingly, despite Turkiye’s closure of the Dardanelle strait to all warships, it seems that Russia’s Novorossiysk Kilo-class sub, “a Gorshkov-class frigate, the Admiral Grigorovich Grigorovich-class frigate, and possibly the Vyazma Kaliningradneft-class oiler”  were allowed through the strait to the Black Sea, and thence (I’d assume) to Sevastapol. [1] Likewise, according to the same ISW Neocon media group, an S-400 and related air defense equipment stationed at Hmmeim airbase has been transported back to Russia, on or about December 6th, 2024.

So perhaps the more relevant question is: What long-term gain did the Russian military receive by maintaining these Syrian bases? The answer is, “it depends”, but most likely the bases provided very little value in terms of strategic importance. That’s because no real effort was made by the Russian military to destroy the terror forces located in Idlib, where the Hmeimim base is only about sixty kilometers from the intersection with the main M5 highway to the North. And Russia’s warships were not used to shell the Idlib region from the coast of Syria, most likely for humanitarian reasons. In fact, the manner in which Russia’s military bases were just evacuated suggests that a decision was made to leave the Assad regime to its own devices, a decision made some while back. (Assad secretly met with Russia’s leadership a couple of weeks ago.)

Regardless of how one feels about the myriad of ISIS-al Qaeda terror groups resident in Northwestern Syria, it is apparent that Russia did not want to engage in a slaughter similar to that in which Israel has engaged in Gaza, since October 7th of 2023 and before, where occupied Gaza has been under siege by US-backed Israeli terror forces since 2007. (We know Putin is a student of history, and he is certainly aware of the detrimental effect caused when Richard the Lionheart mercilessly slaughtered 3000 Muslim prisoners of war at Acre, in 1191.)

Theories exist that Russia’s Tartus base could have been leveraged to thwart NATO ships from entering the Black Sea in the event of all-out aggression by NATO. But based on strategic deterrence recently established by Russia, and Turkiye’s continuing closure of the Dardanelle strait, the foregoing with regard to NATO aggression seems unlikely.

Despite protestations by western analysts otherwise, the two bases are expensive and cumbersome for Russia to maintain, if they are not being effectively used, which they were not. For example, Russia could have employed sophisticated air defenses in Syria to prevent Israel’s aggression by air power there, but based on complex (if not bizarre) financial and cultural links to Israel via the Olim and deep cultural ties, Russia chose not to challenge Zionist aggression in Syria. Pragmatically, when the SMO is finished Russia will need to re-establish financial ties with Israel and to its Central Bank, where Oligarchs and Israeli involvement in worldwide capital machinations is essential to capital flows to most all regimes, whether criminal and rogue or not.

Furthermore, by all reports, the situation on the ground in Syria had become so complex with so many militias fighting, in-fighting, and “out fighting” – also complicated by Iran’s involvement and western spheres of influence – by some reports Assad was planning to end this game of chess which was by now well beyond grand master level. To top all off, the Syrian Arab Army for some reason – still under wraps – refused to fight after Aleppo had fallen.

According to Marandi and others, Assad previously and unwisely took bin Zayed’s word that the former United States would lift sanctions versus Syria, if Syria only expelled Iran from the territory that the Syrian government then controlled. The report says that when Assad agreed to the word given by the US about lifting sanctions – whether given by proxy or not – the Russian analysts involved were horrified, and considered doubts expressed by Assad himself, that he was well beyond his depth in ‘Zbig’ Brzezinski’s ongoing Great Game.  Consider the period of time – thirteen years – since Hillary Clinton’s ‘Great Satan’ planned the murder and mayhem that would soon envelop West Asia. That’s a long time for an eye doctor to be participating in geopolitical intrigue. But there’s much more.

Turkiye’s hold over Russia being as a NATO member, but one that cooperates with Russia on energy and strategic affairs. Turkey’s involvement ever since its invasion of Afrin has been a thorn in the side, especially with US-backed SDF provocations, which promised to pit Russia versus the CIA’s duplicitous dollar-fed miscreants.  Which leads to the US occupation of Syrian oil fields, endorsed by no less a character than Trump himself; and then we have the former USA positioned in al Tanf and controlling the crossing at al Qaim and al Bukumal.

In conjunction with Russia’s integration of the Wagner Group into its armed forces, that has circumscribed its ability to be effective by Russian law, where whatever remains of the Wagner Group is needed versus Country-404. Then we must consider the position with a new regime pending in Washington, and based on Trump’s foreign policy picks – example Rubio – the new boss looks to be more of a disaster than the old boss, if that is possible. Because it’s clear that Biden is totally dysfunctional and and is not running the US executive branch, even if that fact is hidden from US Americans.

There are other factors to consider internal to Russia’s own position, especially with regard to the SMO, and for example relations with Iran, where Iran seems to be suffering under a weak leader who is not a remote patch on Raisi. Taken altogether, one can only ask, how would Russia’s continued assistance to Syria – which by the way Syria formally requested in 2015 – actually benefit Russia, going forward?

Next we have the interesting development where Turkiye must now decide on its own – without Russian involvement – how to carry on in the Northwest, attempt to build its pipeline from Turkiye through Syria, Jordan, and Saudi to Qatar, and how to deal with the PKK/SDF. Do we see a pattern here? Will Turkiye truly attempt to repatriate Syrian immigrants back to Northwest Syria after one dozen years? It seems outrageous if not ludicrous.. but that has been proposed.

And since Russia has left Syria, that leaves the Zionist regime to sort out its own next moves regarding Greater Israel, and the Zionist’s planned conquest of West Asia to the Euphrates river (in the east of Syria) and then on to Iraq. How will the New Ottoman Empire respond to that?

In closing, it seems that Russia pragmatically saw Syria as a house of cards, decided to throw its cards into a box with all the others, and then shake them all up. Believe it or not, this may distract NATO and the toxic western powers from attempting to assist Country-404 to any great extent in 2025, when we have Trump/Rubio — and their inability to restrain the State Department’s half-crazed murderous clowns — to contend with.

But with al Baghdadi’s designate/ protege in charge of most of Syria, and the US-Israeli axis on the rampage everywhere including Palestine (and Turkiye doing its ‘own thing’ versus US-backed Kurd terrorists) it will likely be many decades before West Asia stabilizes.

And at the end of the day, diplomacy no longer exists.  Only a nation’s own self-interest exists. Assuming the US Axis of Vile allows any nation to act in its own interest.

[1] NB: link is to the Neocon group, the ISW

Steve Brown