in ,

War with Iran only likely in 2nd Presidential Term

Authored by Serban V.C. Enache via Hereticus Economicus:

The drone attacks on the Aramco oil refinery at Abqaiq and Khurais oil field is – in my opinion – one of the best carried out operations in decades. It’s so open to interpretation, and it serves the hegemon’s narrative so well. If the Houthis have such tactical and strategic capabilities, why didn’t they deploy them sooner against Saudi Arabia? Something must have changed. They must have received better equipment, training or specialists, plus intel. Or maybe the Saudis deliberately let their guard down? The whole thing doesn’t smell right. If it was indeed carried out by Iran via proxy, then it’s a hands down master stroke; the message being: that’s how strong we are, and we can inflict a lot worse if you invade us.

Putting that question aside, war with Iran, even if it would appease the Zionists and the Saud crime family, it would kill Trump’s chances of reelection. He can’t win simply with the hardcore republicans, he needs the moderate vote too. And even his loyalists, some of them at least, are deploring his hawkish policy toward Iran – because he vowed to keep the country out of another Middle Eastern quagmire. Anti-war Democratic candidate Tulsi Gabbard shot a tweet to the president, saying: “Trump awaits instructions from his Saudi masters. Having our country act as Saudi Arabia’s bitch is not “America First.” Not really a bold remark, since she didn’t include Israel next to Saudi Arabia, but we’ll take what we can get… A day after that, Trump posted on Iran in better spirits, adopting a wait and see attitude: “Remember when Iran shot down a drone, saying knowingly that it was in their “airspace” when, in fact, it was nowhere close. They stuck strongly to that story knowing that it was a very big lie. Now they say that they had nothing to do with the attack on Saudi Arabia. We’ll see?”

Given the circumstances, I believe Trump will hold back from giving the order to attack Iran, at least until he secures a second term. That has been the established war course in the US for some time. Bush Jr and Obama unleashed the big, war operations in their second terms. And it’s unlikely that Trump will break with this tradition. The ‘locked and loaded’ expression is part of the same intimidation doctrine employed by the sick, murderous neocons [this includes Killary and Obomber]. Trump is probably hoping to squeeze a meeting with Rouhani, which he can talk up as a success of diplomacy, a success obtained by his own personal skill as the ‘greatest’ negotiator. Contrary to previous statements – no talks with the US until Washington lifts sanctions – Iran’s supreme leader might change his mind and agree to a meeting between Rouhani and Trump without preconditions. Let’s not forget that the Iranian political establishment is composed of factions too; and they may have different opinions about how to handle this situation as it develops; and a little bit of Russian brokerage may smooth things out. That’s a very optimistic scenario. Realistically speaking, however, the possibility of meeting without preconditions is slim to none. In all likelihood, the Trump Administration will find some way to levy more sanctions and further strong-arm third parties from doing business with Iran. Bribes may work too, or at least, the promise of bribes…

US unilateralism [war with Iran] will impact a great many countries. It’s going to be a supply shock, a financial shock, and no doubt terrorist activities will spawn all over the place in the West – and not necessarily just from Islamic fundamentalists or sleeper cells. It’s up to the remaining great powers to firmly express opposition, not just via press statements, but via military operations as well. Needless to say, the Europeans won’t be much help, since Western Europe and the Balkans harbor US bases and US soldiers, and European mainstream politicians, right and left, are corrupt and spineless. The rest of the sane world must convince the Deep Staters to back off; to accept the fact Iran has escaped their [irrational] grand plans of early 21st century hegemony through destabilization and invasion. If Trump really cares about being popular and about winning, he should listen to real patriots like Douglas Macgregor, get the troops out and accept the multi-polar world system. A true patriot fights to pull/keep his nation out of war, not into it.

Liked it? Take a second to support The Duran on Patreon!

Report

What do you think?

4
Leave a Reply

avatar
4 Comment threads
0 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
4 Comment authors
Matt DudgeDon't Use NukesSally SnyderJane Karlsson Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Jane Karlsson
Guest
Jane Karlsson

“If the Houthis have such tactical and strategic capabilities, why didn’t they deploy them sooner against Saudi Arabia? Something must have changed. ….The whole thing doesn’t smell right.” Agreed. It seems to me that the most likely culprit is the Iranian terrorist group the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MEK or MKO). This group may have been behind the tanker attacks in the Gulf earlier this year, collaborating with the Saudis to frame Iran. https://iran-interlink.org/wordpress/mko-saudi-colluded-over-tanker-attack/ They are also thought to have carried out assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists on behalf of Israel. Isn’t it odd that this attack came just before the Israeli election.

Sally Snyder
Guest
Sally Snyder

Here is an article that looks at the close economic connections between China and Iran:

https://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2019/08/chinas-infrastructure-investment-in.html

Washington would be seriously mistaken if it thought that China would stand aside and let the United States destroy its investments in Iran and its infrastructure.

Don't Use Nukes
Guest
Don't Use Nukes

Given recent events… Rouhani emphasized that the Yemeni rebels did it, and emphasized that they didn’t attack religious sites, schools, or hospitals. No way could the Houthis did it themselves. Plus, the Iranians did not say it was a false flag.

Matt Dudge
Guest
Matt Dudge

“In all likelihood, the Trump Administration will find some way to levy more sanctions”
You nailed it, Enache.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1174305447513186304

Russia does not exclude nuclear war in Europe

“It Is Ours!” Indian Minister Says Islamabad About To “Lose Pakistani-occupied Kashmir”