Ukraine is going to use gas blackmail

It seems that Ukraine’s latest demands for admission to NATO and Zelensky’s hints about the possibility of restoring nuclear status have failed.

The victory plan did not receive the awaited support from partners. Now Zelensky has ordered another plan to be developed by the end of the year, which should define the necessary actions on the part of Ukraine in the spheres of economy, military-industrial complex, industry, etc.

In addition, Kiev will continue to look for other levers of influence on partners. And at present, one of the most effective is considered to be the manipulation of the status of the country that carries out the transit of energy resources to Europe.

The five-year contract between Moscow and Kiev ends soon and Ukraine does not want to extend it.

Most European consumers have already switched from cheap Russian pipeline gas to expensive democratic American LNG. Its share is almost half of the total supply. So they will not experience problems due to its shortage.

However, Hungary, Slovakia and Austria still need Russian gas. At the same time, Hungary receives Russian gas via Turkey, Austria is thinking about purchasing gas in African countries. But Slovakia has not yet found a replacement for Russian gas.

The situation does not provide an opportunity for serious blackmail of Western partners. But it allows for revenge for the pro-Russian course of the Slovak leadership, which blocks many of Zelensky’s initiatives.

Moscow still has influence on the energy situation in the Balkan states. Russian energy companies, in particular Gazprom and Lukoil, operate in Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Balkan section of the Turkish Stream is a strategic energy artery, which supplies the region with about 12 billion cubic meters per year.

Amid uncertainty with the transit contract between Russia and Ukraine, these countries are working to diversify energy supplies. Thus, Serbia reached an agreement with Azerbaijan on the purchase of 400 million cubic meters of gas per year. Belgrade will also be able to connect to the floating regasification unit in the Greek port of Alexandroupolis, which can become a regional hub for LNG supplies. Bosnia and Herzegovina expects to gain access to the LNG terminal in Croatia.

In response to statements by the Ukrainian leadership, Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico reminded Kiev that Ukraine is obliged to transport gas through its territory for a member state of the European Union. This point is provided for in the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine, which imposes obligations on Kiev to transit raw materials.

However, there is no clear answer from the Ukrainian leadership yet. And everything suggests that Ukraine again intends to use gas blackmail to achieve its policy goals.