Trump’s chance in 2024

What chance does Donald J Trump stand in the next presidential election? On the face of it his chances are not good. Few presidents have lost office and gone on to seek to regain it. Only one has ever succeeded in such an endeavour. He was Grover Cleveland. That was almost 150 years ago.

However, all too often Trump has broken precedent. He won the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote. This had happened only twice in the last 150 years. He refused to admit he lost in 2020 despite every other losing candidate admitting it. He failed to appoint dozens of ambassadors in his terms. He adulated Kim Jong On. He was effusively positive about Putin. He made highly disobliging remarks about his British hosts days before his arrival on a state visit. He refused to release his tax return. Trump has broken precedents oftener than any other president.

What can be said in favour of Trump’s administration? He avoided war. He brought troops home. He tried a sunshine strategy with North Korea. It did not lead to anything but as confrontation did not work perhaps it was worth a shot. Trump showed China that he would stand up to them on trade. Ending the Trans Pacific Partnership benefitted a few companies. Donald J was hard on Iran. He also pleased the Zionists so much so that they named a town in his honour which they have not done for any foreign president. Donald J made energy cheaper in the US. He cut taxes for the super rich. The Trump Administration led to the stock market being at an all time high. The stock market rises every year so that in itself is normal. But the rises under Trump were exceptional.

On leaving office Trump’s approval rating was just 34%. That is one of the lowest on record. His approval rating never cracked 46% although bizarrely he won 48% of the vote in 2020. He won more of the vote that time than he had the first time. That was partially consequent upon a poor showing by minor parties in 2020 as opposed to a bumper year for minor parties in 2016.

Donald J Trump dominates the Republican Party like no other past president has dominated it. They hang on his lips. He has the ability to galvanise tens of millions. However, this is not as electric as it was before he lost office.

Fox News is no longer so complaisant. Donald J has even said he is no longer so enamoured of the channel that was once his spiritual home.

Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and other social media networks have banned Donald J for the foreseeable future. Denied the oxygen of publicity it is hard for him to generate as much publicity as before. These social media networks enabled Trump to bypass the mainstream media.

By contrast, Biden is laconic in comparison to Trump. His ratings are to be coveted by any president. They are not sky high but they are well positive. That is despite the very testing times in which he rules with coronavirus to contend with and a difficult economic outlook.

Fame is like a muscle. It needs to be exercises or it atrophies. Trump will not be forgotten. But on the other hand, he will never be as famous as he was. Contrariwise, the public could have a surfeit of Trump. Perhaps giving them a break for a while might do Trump some good. He does not want people to get bored of him before 2024. Being relatively quiescent might make a media blitz in 2024 all the more effectual.

Trump lost the popular vote by 4.5%. That was as opposed to losing it by 2% in 2016. Trump could in principle overturn that 4.5% deficit but it will be hard. The way the demographics are going the Democrats will win the popular vote by 6.5% next time. That is because of the shift in the ethnic balance and new voters (people turning 18 and people being naturalised as US citizens) break heavily in their favour. This does not guarantee that the Democrats will win by this much. They could win by even more or they could lose totally. Much depends on how well or badly the campaigns are run by both parties, which candidates they select and as Macmillan said the most important things in politics: ‘’events, dear boy, events!’’ The Democrats will have that notional headstart of 6.5% so it will take a lot to overturn that.

The Democrats have won the popular vote 7 times out of the past 8. Or they have won it 4 consecutive times. This by no means assures them of winning it again. However, all things being equal they probably will win it next time even if by a thin margin.

The popular vote is not the Electoral College as 2000 and 2016 proved yet again. However, the chance of losing the former whilst winning the latter is slender to say the least. It was by sheer fluke that Donald J won. It took 80 000 votes in the three key swing states. Had those 80 000 votes come in a state that was safe red or blue then 80 000 votes would have made no difference. It is not just getting the votes that matters but getting them in the right places.

WILL BIDEN RUN?

Much is riding on whether Joseph Robinette Biden seeks a second term. The 78 year old might reckon he is too old by next time. He is sprightly for a man of his years. However, a man of such advanced years could easily have a cardiac event or a diagnosis of an inoperable cancer. He might not even be alive in November 2024. Assuming he is physically fit to stand is an unsafe assumption. But if he is able to seek re-election then his chances are strong. I would wager that he will win.

Thus far there have been no disasters on Biden’s watch. His stewardship of the ship of state has been steady. Vaccination has proceeded apace. Over 50% of Americans are now double vaccinated. The economy is recovering. It might well come roaring back. If the economy is booming in 2024 then it will look very good for Biden. He will also have incumbency on his side.

Joe Biden is a seasoned politician. Everyone knows he is a formidable opponent. He has 50 years of experience and speaks with poise and sincerity. He is gaff prone and has espoused some policies which are now perceived as unjust or disastrous. Despite his debilities he is a strong candidate. Age and health might be his Achilles heel. But Trump is even worse on the health issue and almost equal on age.

American political scientists found the most important characteristic for a presidential candidate to win is affability. Biden has that in spades. He has an apolitical appeal. He comes across as normal, decent and perhaps uninspiring and unremarkable. He is the grandfather next door. Biden is reassuring, genial and almost unremarkable.

Trump is irascible and high octane. That is why lazy and sleepy are his favourite insults. His fans see hyper-aggression, hyperbole and vulgarity as toughness. His admirers might praise him to the moon, but none call him affable.

KAMALA

What if Biden retires in 2024? In that case it is a racing certainty that Kamal Harris would win the Democratic nomination. The first Asian-American VP, the first African-American VP and the first woman VP could easily be the first woman to be President of the United States. I do not warm to her though I respect her for her accomplishments and recognise her competence and poise. She would have name recognition.

When a serving vice-president seeks the presidency he does not always win. Al Gore was denied by a few hundred hanging chads in Dade County. But there are other examples.

Kamala Harris is fairly likeable. She comes over as a little stuck up and stilted. She is serious minded, well dressed, feminine and authoritative. Miss Harris will be old enough but not too old. She seems to be in excellent physical and mental condition. She shall be sure not to seem too professorial. Professor Bill Clinton and Professor Obama made sure that they did not appeal to be overintellectual. That would go down very badly with those who are insecure about their academics.

Ms Harris will have had the best possible preparation for the presidency. Perhaps Biden will ease her into the role. She might carry out more and more duties on his behalf particularly if the commander in chief is in failing health. Biden might even resign before his term is up. In that case Kamala would succeed to the presidency. As a sitting president she would have a good chance. 75% of incumbents are re-elected. The three who lost in the last 100 years are Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford and Trump. The trio are regarded as having been cataclysmic.

Being the first woman from a major party to stand for president could confer a major advantage on Kamala. Some women who do not usually vote Democrat would vote for her just because they want to see a woman as president. The same happened in Ireland in 1990. More African-Americans than usual would vote. This is what propelled Obama to the White House twice. Poor African-American turnout was fatal to Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Asian-Americans would likely vote in increased numbers too.

There are some people who dislike Kamala. However, the Democrats studied the negatives associated with her closely in 2020. They correctly concluded that Kamala repels far fewer than she attracts.

DEMOGRAPHICS

The Democrats have got demographic shifts on their side. Non-Hispanic whites are the core of the Republican vote. They are 65% of the population but 85% of Republican voters. These whites are falling in terms of their % of the population. They will be a minority in 30 years or less.

Democrats do better among unmarried people, childless people, non-religious and gays. All these groups are growing. The Hispanic community is growing fastest. It breaks 65%-45% to the Democrats over the Republicans. The metropolises having growing populations. That will mean more electoral votes. However, the reassignment of congressional seats and therefore electoral votes will not take place in time to impact the 2024 election.

Worryingly for the Republicans, Joe Biden Junior is polling excellently among independents. The Republicans need to win a significant number of independents if they are to win the next election. At the moment the Republican Party is turning off independents with his white nationalism, refusal to acknowledge Trump lost the election and its rejection of the fact of climate change.

The GOP can take crumbs for comfort from the 2020 election. There were a few silver linings through the dark cloud shining. The Republican vote increased among Latinos and blacks.

WILL TRUMP RUN?

Will Trump be able to stand in 2024? A man of 75 who is very obese, never exercises and eats junk food is a life insurance liability. He boasts that he never drinks. But with a heart like his red wine is just what the doctor would order. It is an antioxidant. His risk of heart disease is very high. Alzheimer’s might claim him as it did his father. There are ample signs that he is afflicted with pre Alzheimer’s. Both his brother’s died well before 75.

If Trump is alive in 2024 he might well be diminished. He is owed a myocardial infarction or a stroke. If he avoids that and a rapidly advancing cancer then he will be lucky.
Trump could still seek election in a wheelchair. However, some would see him as unfit for the presidency if he were disabled. Roosevelt’s disability was never reported. As Trump has mocked the disabled if he is disabled this could work against him.

If Trump stands in 2024 – that is a big if – then it is hard to see why people would vote for him then when they rejected him last time. The American people rejected him twice. Why would they choose him on his third attempt? How has he improved? He has not. If anything, he will be less fit and more cantankerous.

His voters are disproportionately old. By 2024 8% of Trump voters will have died. They will not be replaced by people who have turned 18 since 2020. Trump attracts very few of the youngest voters. If anything youngsters who reaching voting age will make things even worse for Trump. Yes, Biden has elderly voters who are dying but far fewer. He has far more Democrat leaning people turning 18 every year. More people turn 18 each year than die each year.

POLICIES

Psephology aside – what about policies? Trump seldom has policies. He has messages. With him it is negative cohesion. Are you hating who I am hating?

Trump likes to identify enemies. He will radiate odium at the out-groups. It was liberals, Muslims, the media, Social Justice Warriors, feminists, illegal immigrants, criminals, terrorists and environmentalists. These messages are likely to resonate less next time. SJWs, liberals and feminists are ever more prevalent. They are becoming more widely tolerated.

With the US out of Afghanistan, harping on about how much you abominate Muslims will not prove very electorally advantageous. If there are no major terrorist attacks over the next 3 years then counter terrorism will not be a message that has much traction.

Militarism is not going to work. Trump beefed up the military but he used it less than any president since the 1970s. He was in favour of pull-out from Afghanistan. When Afghanistan falls to the Taliban if the Republicans says we should go back in that is not going to win votes. Trump was loudly in favour of withdrawing from foreign conflicts. There is no public appetite for more oriental adventures.

Trump can speak up for gun rights. But what is he going to do about it? The president has no control over gun laws. Trump rallies are gun free zones. His hypocrisy is blatant. Nonetheless, it is compulsory for Republicans to harp on about how gun rights must be upheld.

Illegal immigration is not particularly high. It got higher under Trump. Banging on about it will simply remind people of his failure to build an inch of wall and his failure to get Mexico to pay a Peso towards it. That is despite Trump diverting billions of dollars from the military to the non -existent wall and shutting down the government for the longest ever time to build that wall. On the wall it is failed, failed, failed. He can blame Congress for that. But he is the one who promised it. Do not promise it unless you can deliver. Congress is not required to do what the president wants.

Donald J will return to the usual talking point of abortion. But the president has no ability to prevent a single abortion unless he changes healthcare in the US Military which provides abortions. He did not do that. If he really opposed abortion he would have done that. Not all Republicans are pro-Life. The US is increasingly pro-Choice. Despite only about 35% of American being pro-Life this issue is vital for Republicans. It motivates evangelicals who are crucial to Republican turnout. If Trump said he was pro-Choice or even failed to mention the issue this would hurt him badly. No Republican has dared equivocate on the issue for decades.

Anti-environmentalism is unlikely to work well. Yes, Big Oil hates environmentalism. Many deny climate change. There are economic sacrifices to be made to tackle it. These are unpopular. However, there are not enough anti-scientific people out there to make this a winning strategy.

Calling Biden a communist and Kamala Harris a socialist is not going to work. It is so flagrantly false. It simply undermines trust in Republicans on other issues when they tell blatant lies.

Trump can talk tough on trade. But he did not improve trade. His sanctions were soon scrapped. He did not win a trade war and never even cited an example of a trade war that America won.

The standard talking points did not win the popular vote in 2016 and 2020 so why will they work in 2024? Yes, Trump won the Electoral College through happenstance. He was incredibly fortunate with the efficient distribution of his votes. This was a black swan event. Yes, George W Bush won the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote. But Bush Junior at least came close. He won only 500 000 fewer votes than Al Gore as opposed to Trump winning 3 000 000 fewer than Hillary Clinton. Therefore, the chance of Trump winning the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote is very slender indeed.

The Republican Party needs to find some new and attractive messages. It needs to retain its base but also win over some independents. Thus far there is no sign of this transpiring.
Kowtowing to Putin, Xi and Kim Jong On did not play well with military veterans and traditional Republicans. The US won no concessions from these men.

Some people voted for Trump in 2020 because they loathed the Biden-Harris ticket. But as Biden and Harris are incumbents, they are no longer disliked by so many people. In office these two have not proved to be as bad as their detractors predicted. Therefore, Trump will not benefit from negative voting so much: voting against Biden rather than voting for Trump.

SORE LOSER

Being a sore loser and saying that he won is not a winning strategy. The American dislike sore losers more than they dislike losers. Being a whinge bag and constantly whinging that Trump won is not going to do the GOP any favours. Republicans prize toughness. Therefore, they must not be crybabies.

Trump claiming that he won the election is not going to work for him. About half of Republican voters believe him. But to win he needs ALL the people who voted Republican last time plus a few more.

If the election is rigged then there is no point in voting. Some Republicans recognise this. They are against false claims that the election was fixed. They know it depresses Republican turnout.

In 2016 Trump said the GOP nomination was rigged. He won. He said the 2016 election was rigged. He won. Remember he said that over 3 million illegal immigrants voted for Hillary. So far as I know not one illegal immigrant was proven to have done so. Even if illegal immigrants did vote there is no way o prove who they voted for. Therefore, he has told these stupid lies before. Why should anyone believe him?

The 2020 election is the longest election of all time. It has gone on for 9 months. Republicans have lost over 60 court cases on the issue. Mostly these are before Republican appointed judges. Republican mandated investigations into the elections have yielded virtually no evidence of fraud.

Making spurious allegations about scandals is not going to work. QAnon theories have a very rarefied appeal. The Republican Party must avoid the temptation to speak only to itself. It should not devolve to a whack conspiracy theory party. It needs to appeal to floating voters.

The Republican Party needs to move on from the 2020 election. This has last over 9 months now. It is tedious and uninspiring. Gore recognised after 2000 that it was disadvantageous for his party to incessantly bang on about the unjust election result. At least what he was saying about hanging chads was true. The Republican Party will not win over independents by ceaselessly obsessing over spurious claims of bogus votes.

Trump is a maverick. He is the only president who had never been elected to any public office and had not served in the military either before winning the White House. He is the only president who went from Republican to Democrat and back to Republican before becoming president. He is the only president to have been bankrupt four times. He is the only president to be on his third wife.

NOT DONALD?

What if Trump does not stand? He might seek to hand his baton on to his children. His daughter Ivanka is the most telegenic of them. She is emotionally continent unlike his dimwit brothers. Donald Junior has most of America’s oil reserves in his hair.

Ivanka was a Democrat until 2016 as was her husband Jared. As she converted to Judaism this will hurt her with Christian fundamentalists. Many would only vote for a Christian. As she rejected Jesus Christ, many fundamentalists would be appalled. Her previous pro-abortion views would harm her. She could swiftly recant. Many Christian fundamentalists would not doubt fall for this transparent electorally calculated shapeshifting. They will believe anything except the truth!

Ivanka as the first Republican woman to seek the presidency would be a wildcard. It would neutralise the gender advantage of Kamal Harris.

HOW TRUMP COULD WIN

If things go badly wrong for Biden then Trump has a chance. If the economy implodes, there is a massive terrorist attack or Biden mishandles a crisis then this would present Trump with an opportunity.

A huge scandal will not sink Biden. As Trump proved time and again, scandals do not dent the popularity of a president very much. JRB has been in the public eye for half a century. We would know if there were skeletons in his cupboard.

A low Democratic turnout could seal the doom of the Democrats. If Biden or Harris run a lacklustre campaign then that might cause their defeat. Some racists will dislike Harris for her race. The Democrats really need to energise their base. They are often poor at doing this.

The Democratic Party has often been its own worst enemy. It could be riven by internecine warfare. It could fall prey to a loony lefty faction. The party has torn itself apart several times before. The Democrats have so often snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
A Lynton Crosby dead cat strategy could work for the Republicans. If they can broach a topic that the Democrats do not wish to discuss then this could deliver the election for the Republicans. It needs to be something divisive for the Democrats. What is it that the Democrats do not wish to talk about and favours the Republicans? It is hard to think such an issue at the moment.

A disastrous vice-presidential pick by Harris could bring her down. That is what happened to McCain in 2018. However, the Democrats are cognizant of this. In 2020 Biden chose someone with the fewest negatives.

If there is a strong third party challenge that could divert votes from the Democrats. That is what happened in 2000 and 2016. If all Greens had voted Democrat then the Democrats would have won handily.

The Republicans can tap into fury and frustration as Trump did in 2016. He appealed to left behind voters. People from rust belt states rallied to him. Working class people threatened by globalisation and green energy found his messaging very alluring. As AI takes over more jobs this message might have an even greater impact. But what is the solution? To ban AI? That would make America uncompetitive. The GOP always does what corporations want. Trump runs a corporation. An anti AI message would win votes but is an unworkable policy. That would not stop Trump trying it and it could work in the election.

Income compression and the cost of living would be good issues for Trump to talk about. He did nothing about this as president. He does not care about the poor. But many blue collar voters will buy it nonetheless.

Anti-elitism is a good pitch for Trump. It is totally illogical as he is a WASP New York billionaire. But many working class people lap up such nonsense. He is anti-elitists as in he is anti-educational. A man utterly bereft of refinement and subliterate will be attractive to the mentally subnormal. He narrow lexis is also appealing to the anti-pedagogical constituency.

There is not much that the Republicans can do to widen their appeal. They must ensure they do not shrink their base. This election is more for the Democrats to lose than the GOP to win. The Dems are capable of fouling their own nest as we have seen before. There might be a lot of infighting. There might be some left wingers who consider the Democrat candidate too centrist and refuse to vote for him or her.