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Time Runs Out on Operation Ukraine

Time Runs Out on Operation Ukraine

  • Europe has made it clear it is no longer interested in paying for its failed Ukrainian project. 

Authored by Tom Luongo:

Change is now possible in Ukraine. The conflict between it and Russia has been frozen for nearly five years thanks to former President Petro Poroshenko.

He’s gone. Volodmyr Zelensky is in power along with Zelensky’s political party which won close to a clear majority in Verkovna Rada elections recently.

Zelensky’s Servent of the People party won 253 seats out of 450, giving him not only the presidency but no need to build a coalition government with smaller parties of known foreign-controlled players, like Yulia Tymoshenko (Fatherland) or from Poroshenko’s party itself, European Solidarity.

Source: Wikipedia

This was the biggest fear coming into these elections. Ukraine’s system is mixed using both proportional allocation (225 seats) and majoritarian allocation (225).

Zelensky has a mandate now to begin the process of tearing down the barriers to sanity Poroshenko left in his wake. The big one being, of course, the war against separatists in the Donbass.

For the first few months of his presidency Zelensky has sent mixed signals as to what he intends to do on the world stage. He’s offered to meet with Putin, who then asked saliently, ‘to what end?’

He’s tried to pull back on the conflict only to see the shelling continue and, at times, intensify.

Zelensky is dealing with the same kind of bureaucratic revolt against change that Donald Trump has dealt with. In fact, it’s the same people running the both shows.

If there was one thing that has become glaringly obvious over the past three years it is that the coup attempt by the bureaucracy against Trump it is that much of it was cooked up in Ukraine under the dutiful eye of former President Poroshenko.

With Poroshenko out of the way, there is still the inertia of those he put in important positions. Ukraine is practically a failed state so don’t expect good news. If anything it’s become a playground for outside forces to start more fires as Zelensky tries to stamp out the ones currently burning.

All of these fires have one goal in mind, keep Ukraine and Russia separated and in conflict. This is being directed by both U.S. and British interests, if the Steele Dossier tells us anything.

That is the way these things go. But, that said, what Zelensky can have control over are the big issues setting Russia and Ukraine at odds. Obviously the Donbass is the big one.

But what’s really pressing is the gas supply contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz. It’s due to expire in December. I’ve written extensively about the machinations surrounding this and it’s worth your review.

The U.S. is trying to run out the clock on these negotiations by slowing down completion of Nordstream 2 and put Gazprom in the position of not supplying its written contracts with Europe. If Nordstream 2 can’t deliver and there is no supply agreement with Naftogaz then Gazprom can’t deliver contracted gas for the first time ever.

So I found it very interesting that Zelensky is now openly asking for talks with Gazprom and Naftogaz about the supply contract. This is not a difficult deal to get done. But, it has some outstanding issues. From TASS:

After securing control over the Verkhovna Rada, the team of Vladimir Zelensky indicated that it is ready for new gas negotiations with Russia. According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta’s experts, Kiev’s decisiveness is explained by the pressure from the European Union and Ukraine’s interest in receiving transit revenues from Russia. Meanwhile, the real chances of a new transit agreement have grown, the newspaper wrote. Ukrtransgas has not paid for services since March and its debts threaten the company’s stability and question the reliability of its supplies, the European Federation of Energy Traders (EFET) said.

But none of these issues will be difficult to resolve. Poroshenko left Ukraine at the mercy of Putin and Gazprom because they need the gas and the transit fees while Russia has Nordstream 2 and Turkstream coming on line next year.

See Also

Putin energy embargoed Ukraine earlier in the year making things really dicey for Zelensky. At the end of the day, however, Putin and Gazprom will negotiate a deal quickly that will pay Ukraine based on market demand for that gas to satisfy European regulators allaying worries over Ukraine’s finances.

Europe has made it clear it is no longer interested in paying for its failed Ukrainian project. Europe’s gas demand is rising so quickly that there will be room for everyone in the market. The only thing holding up completion of Nordstream 2 is a final permit from Denmark, which Gazprom expects to finally receive in October.

Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller is not sanguine about the prospects of a deal as there are outstanding court cases involved, but the long-term political dividends of signing some kind of deal, even an extension of the existing one pending a more thorough overhaul, would be immense.

Getting that problem solved would build trust between Putin and Zelensky and could lead to unwinding the problems downstream of 2014’s U.S. sponsored coup against Viktor Yanukovich.

There are so many forces arrayed within the U.S., UK, northern European and Israeli governments against reconciliation between Ukraine and Russia that it will be difficult for Zelensky and Putin to achieve much.

Europe’s new leadership, under Ursula von der Leyen, will be more confrontational with Russia while the jury is out on Boris Johnson’s new UK government and whether he can even remain in power for long.

But it is clear that the people of Europe are tired of these games and want change. The Ukrainian elections are proof of this. And that, by itself, is something worth cheering.


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Highest Halls of JusticeKnock Knock, anyone home?IvankaUS - known by the company they keepsnax Recent comment authors
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mijj
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mijj

in the long term Ukraine will be Russia’s foothold in Europe.

David Robertson
Guest
David Robertson

On the other hand, Ukraine has always been Russia’s bulwark against invasion from Europe. Today’s Western narrative that Russia wants to invade Europe is mere propaganda to fuel the Russophobia. I am sure Ukraine will return to the Russian zone of influence in due course.

Veth
Guest
Veth

No, Ukraine is Europe, The Russia Asia.

European
Guest
European

1930’s Europe you mean. Now you’ve given me nightmares. Did you really have to?

Rubber necking into the future
Guest
Rubber necking into the future

In the short and long term, Ukraine will be known as the proverbial accident on the road to multi-polar prosperity, where U crane your neck to look at the carnage as you drive by.

Hawaiiguy
Guest
Hawaiiguy

Any discussions with gas supply contracts will be taken with a grain of salt on Russias side. Until Zel can show he’s actually in control of anything he remains at the whim of the neo nazi class. Tanker incident case in point, I doubt he had any say in the seizure. And I’m not discounting Clinton ensures lips won’t run to freely under the new admin. She can’t have a group of Ukrainians telling the truth now.

Zelblinksky
Guest
Zelblinksky

He’s caught between his neo-nazi masters and his American masters, who often work in concert anyway. I don’t think he can choose which socks to wear on his own.

Veth
Guest
Veth

There are no neo -nazzies in Ukraine, unlike in The Russia

Achtung!
Guest
Achtung!

Yeah, we know – they’re all progressive liberals just posing. LOL

US - known by the company they keep
Guest
US - known by the company they keep

BJ Clinton’s wonderful experiment of disguising the narco-mafia state of Kosovo as a lesson in ‘multi-ethnic democracy’ simply carried over by his significant other into disguising the neo-nazi coup d’etat of Ukraine as yet another lesson in some American psycophaths’ fantasy notions of democracy. Not even mob rule. Just some hand picked brown-shirt ideologues straight out of 1930s Germany that fit the bill need do.

snax
Guest
snax

mmmkay, lol. cute how you affix The to Russia, where everyone knows it is understood in the context of the Ukraine, as in the borderland (kraina). When referring to Russia, it simply exposes your limited knowledge of the English language. Carry on.

David Robertson
Guest
David Robertson

.

AM Hants
Member
AM Hants

One of his mentors is Soros, who works closely with Clinton. The other is Kolomoisky. Only we are not meant to notice.

Sally Snyder
Guest
Sally Snyder

Here is an article that looks at Washington’s lie about Crimea and its referendum that the entire anti-Russia narrative was built on:

https://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2019/06/washingtons-duplicitous-approach-to.html

It would appear that the Obama Administration very clearly understood that the people of Crimea wanted to separate from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation and that the results of the March 2014 referendum were valid.

Bo Pally
Guest
Bo Pally

Only morons, Clinton groupies and NATO pencil pushers and their Venn intersects didn’t know or believe that the referendum was genuine.

addendum
Guest
addendum

…..and even if they know, they lie about it anyway.

AM Hants
Member
AM Hants

They knew back in 1994 and so did the UK.

UK and US Always Knew Crimea Wanted to Re-join Russia…

‘….LONDON – London and Washington knew of the overwhelming desire of Crimeans to re-unite with Russia from the early days of Ukraine’s independence. UK and US diplomats predicted that Ukraine would split and that Crimea would look to Russia, British Cabinet papers released to the National Archives in London reveal….’

https://nation.com.pk/29-Dec-2018/uk-and-us-always-knew-crimea-wanted-to-re-join-russia

Thinking like a CIAchik
Guest
Thinking like a CIAchik

Clinton probably sweet-talked Yeltsin just so he WOULDN’T make Crimea’s status an issue. He immediately made NATO expansion a priority so, who can honestly say that he didn’t have Crimea in his sights for NATO even back then, that is in between Lolita Express junkets of course.

Veth
Guest
Veth

There was no referendum, not even a legal one, silly girl. A country can not hold a ref under gunpoint in another counry

Plain and Simple Truths
Guest
Plain and Simple Truths

The IQ monkey is back, I see. How many five year old debunked talking points have you managed to memorize there, Bobo? I count three, not counting the one about the Buddhist monks in Odessa that burned themselves to death in protest. Eat govno, Ukrop.

Ivanka
Guest
Ivanka

I’ve never understood why they even bothered to hold a referendum. They should have just unilaterally seceded, like Slovenia.

Frost
Guest
Frost

Just facts: Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina did have referendums in 1990. Monte Negro in 2003. Macedonia and Kosovo did not.

snax
Guest
snax

kosovo did have a referendum in 91. in any case, legally it does not matter if Russian forces helped to secure a peaceful referendum. the question is, did the referendum reflect the will of the people of crimea? …undoubtedly so considering several preceding referenda and confirmed by numerous foreign delegations (incl. officials from Italy, France and Germany) that came to visit Crimea since it’s secession.

Ivanka
Guest
Ivanka

I stand corrected. You know I’m emotionally driven anyway, so facts are an afterthought. It’s true that’s how wars start but you know, that’s not ‘in my purvue’.

Highest Halls of Justice
Guest
Highest Halls of Justice

Was Slovenia’s referendum extra-constitutional? Was the OSCE there to monitor? Was it even initially recognized as legitimate by the US? No. Exact analog then to the Crimean referendum, plain as day. Case closed.

Blah
Guest
Blah

All fine and dandy but all it means is that the EU will just pass more anti-Nord Stream 2 legislation to force Russia into an onerous long-term contract with Ukraine to feed it transit fees so the EU can cut it loose and still think it hasn’t.

Oh, sorry. About the legislation, The EU just did that. Guess I forgot.

If I were Russia, I’d just shut Ukraine transit down flat come Jan. 1 and live with the consequences. Cap the NS2 pipeline and pull out lock, stock & barrel. Man cannot live by bread alone.

AM Hants
Member
AM Hants

Nought to do with the EU. Russia set it up, specifically to keep the EU out of it all.

Scratching my Head
Guest
Scratching my Head

Huh?

Blah
Guest
Blah

OK, I’ll modify my thinking somewhat. The ONLY deal I’d make would be to set up a guarantee that I’d sell gas at the RF/UA border on spot basis ONLY and that the EU and UA can take it from there, including maintaining system pressure. Put ALL the onus on the EU and see how quickly they fold.

As far as honoring EU supply contracts in case the US’ EU lackeys manage to shut down NS2, I’d declare ‘Force Majeure’. American stupidity, duplicity and its sanctions on everything but the kitchen sink, which is clearly an act of war.

Walk Like an Egyptian
Guest
Walk Like an Egyptian

No, much simpler solution. You have to adopt western thinking. What would MI6 or CIA or their SBU flunkies do? Send Spetsnaz in to blow up the pipeline in western Ukraine somewhere, blame it on Yarosh who already threatened it, and then declare Force Majeure.

Platon
Guest
Platon

SERPENT of the People Party.

AM Hants
Member
AM Hants

I like the work of Tom Luongo, but, not with him on this one. The Comedian who is now President of Ukraine, is mentored by Soros and Kolomoisky. The reasons why I do not trust him. Funnily enough, wanted Trump, owing to him providing a 50% chance of peace, unlike Clinton. Now, he just irritates me and comes across as a ‘Trojan Horse’ character. I assume the Comedian, will be the same. The other part I disagree with, is the fact Rothschild purchased Naftogaz, on condition it is full of Russian Gas. This will attract investors, who they hope will… Read more »

Katherine Ashton
Guest
Katherine Ashton

I’m really still very puzzled by this whole Ukrainian thing.

Knock Knock, anyone home?
Guest
Knock Knock, anyone home?

I suspect you’re even more puzzled by the doorway leading to your kitchen.

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