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The Russian Masterpiece in Syria: Everyone Wins

Putin has no doubt advised Assad and the Kurds to begin a dialogue in the common interests of Syria. He would have no doubt also convinced Erdogan and Trump of the need to accept these plans.

Authored by Federico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation:

“Moscow and Damascus have always maintained they are against any form of partition or illegal foreign presence in Syria.”

Moscow has managed to maintain contacts with all parties in the conflict, even in spite of its stance against partition and illegal foreign presence. Trilateral talks between Iran, Turkey and Russia occurred in Astana at Moscow’s urging. Putin managed to bring together in Sochi the Syrian government and opposition groups to discuss the future of Syria. In Geneva, Moscow mediated between Damascus and the international community, shielding Syria from the diplomatic skulduggery of the US and other enemies of Syria.

Turkey, solely as a result of its defeat in Syria, now finds itself in active dialogue with Moscow and Tehran. As Ankara experiences worsening relations with Washington and other European capitals, Moscow saw a great opportunity to bring Turkey closer to Damascus.

Russia’s operation was complicated and required a lot of patience; but thanks to negotiations supervised by Russia, together with the bravery and courage of Syrian soldiers, almost all of the terrorist pockets scattered around Syria have been progressively overcome.

Other than the Idlib province, the main problem for Damascus lay with the US occupation in the northeast of the country, under the pretext of protecting the Kurds (SDF) from the “Assad regime”, as well as to “fight Daesh”.

Erdogan currently finds himself boxed in, squeezed in by a collapsing economy, threatened by his allies (the purchase of the Russian S-400 system irritated many in Washington and in NATO): he desperately needs to present some kind of victory to his base.

This may be the primary reason behind Erdogan’s decision to move into Syria under the pretense that the YPG is a terrorist organization linked with the PKK — proceeding to create a buffer zone on the border between Syria and Turkey and declaring “mission accomplished” to boost popularity ratings.

With Trump, he is desperate to shift attention away from the impeachment proceedings (a hoax), and similarly needs to present some kind of victory to his base. Why, what better way to do this than with a mini withdrawal of US troops from Syria, leaving the Kurds to their destiny (Trump’s care factor regarding SDF is minimal, as they are more connected to his political opponents in the Democratic Party), while claiming victory over Daesh for the umpteenth time in recent months?

Trump, with a handful of tweets directed against the Pentagon’s “crazy spending” and America’s past wars, finds himself and his base giving each other high fives on their commitment to the doctrine of “America First”.

Erdogan and Trump have also solved the embarrassing internal conflict within NATO between Turkey and the US, probably reestablishing personal relationships (the tough talk from the White House notwithstanding).

The agreement between the Kurds (SDF) and Damascus is the only natural conclusion to events that are heavily orchestrated by Moscow.  The deployment of Syrian and Russian troops on the border with Turkey is the prelude to the reconquest of the entirety of Syrian territory — the outcome the Kremlin was wishing for at the beginning of this diplomatic masterpiece.

Washington and Ankara have never had any opportunities to prevent Damascus from reunifying the country. It was assumed by Moscow that Washington and Ankara would sooner or later seek the correct exit strategy, even as they proclaimed victory to their respective bases in the face of defeat in Syria. This is exactly what Putin and Lavrov came up with over the last few weeks, offering Trump and Erdogan the solution to their Syrian problems.

Trump will state that he has little interest in countries 7,000 miles from the homeland; and Erdogan (with some reluctance) will affirm that the border between Turkey and Syria, when held by the Syrian Arab Army, guarantees security against the Kurds.

Putin has no doubt advised Assad and the Kurds to begin a dialogue in the common interests of Syria. He would have no doubt also convinced Erdogan and Trump of the need to accept these plans.

An agreement that rewards Damascus and Moscow saves the Kurds while leaving Erdogan and Trump with a semblance of dignity in a situation that is difficult to explain to a domestic or international audience.

Moscow has started joint patrols with the Syrian Arab Army on the borders with Turkey for the purposes of preventing any military clashes between Ankara and Damascus. If Ankara halts its military operation in the coming days, Damascus will regain control of the oil fields.

The world will then have witnessed one of the greatest diplomatic masterpieces ever conceived, responsible for bringing closer the end of the seven-year-long Syrian conflict.

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Luis Garcia
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GOOD ANALYSIS!

Very good here:
“The agreement between the Kurds (SDF) and Damascus is the only natural conclusion to events that are heavily orchestrated by Moscow. The deployment of Syrian and Russian troops on the border with Turkey is the prelude to the reconquest of the entirety of Syrian territory — the outcome the Kremlin was wishing for at the beginning of this diplomatic masterpiece.”

Please consider reading my analysis on Turkey-Russia-Syria-Iran arrangements to eradicate Kurdish-SDF-NATO project in Eastern Euphrates. You will not be disappointed (the title is ironical):
https://nomadicthoughts.blogs.sapo.pt/lets-mourn-the-kurdish-faith-by-luis-21338

ManintheMoon
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ManintheMoon

I glanced at your article, Luis, but dare I say, it’s far too long, so I am afraid I gave up well before half way. I suggest that you try to keep yourself to a maximum of 800 words if you want to get read. You did though make an excellent point in the section I did read, that Russia probably welcomed the Turkish invasion as a way to force the Kurds to negotiate. It does seem possible that the whole thing has been choreographed to save the face of Turkey and Trump. We will see. Putin and Lavrov must… Read more »

Luis Garcia
Guest

1 – Yes, it Putin masterfully managed to guide Erdogan towards the only way to finish SDF-NATO occupation of Syria. 2 – Though Erdogan’s Turkey will suffer painful consequences (I am not very concerned about their problems, knowing the main role they had in NATO’s war on Syria). 3 – The one who benefits the most, directly, is Assad, regaining control over his country. 4 – Indirectly, Resistance Axis wins too: Syria, Iran, Russia, China, Venezuela, etc. All this shows we live a period of great changes in which now the West can be stopped and was stopped. Western imperialists,… Read more »

Jane Karlsson
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Jane Karlsson

Mr Garcia I read your article and loved it.

Luis Garcia
Guest

Thank you very much Jane Karlsson.
The truth about Syria has to be spread! 🙂

Luis Garcia
Guest

Consider reading Thierry Meyssan’s 3-part essay “ALL THAT IS HIDDEN FROM YOU ABOUT TURKISH OPERATION “SOURCE OF PEACE”.
It is an extensive and detailed resume of “The Kurdish Question” not to be missed:
https://www.voltairenet.org/article207992.html

“The unanimous international community multiplies its condemnation of the military offensive in Rojava and watches helplessly as tens of thousands of Kurds flee, pursued by the Turkish army. However, no one intervenes, considering that a massacre may be the only possible way to restore peace, given the inextricable situation created by France and the crimes against humanity committed by Kurdish combatants and civilians.” — Thierry Meyssan

Olivia Kroth
Guest

An interesting text, thank you, Federico.

Sami Tabbara
Guest
Sami Tabbara

Excellent analysis. Thank you

Federico Pieraccini
Guest

Thank you Olivia!

George Hartwell
Guest

The underestimated brilliance of Russian diplomacy, of talking with all parties and making peace throughout this conflict. Patience and competence applied with courage. Much respect to Russia and to Putin’s leadership and Lavrov’s diplomacy. Bravo!

Mike
Guest
Mike

Totally delusional article, I almost puke. What about the Kurds getting killed? You forgot that part intentionally or as directed by the Kremlin?

Terry R
Guest
Terry R

I am pleased that you are suffering. That is your karma for not showing enough compassion for the majority of brave Syrians under the Assad leadership; they chant..”Allah, Syria, Bashar….and that’s all we need”

BobValdez
Guest
BobValdez

If you don’t like the truth, you’re welcome to piss off any time you like. Don’t let the door hit you in the arse on the way out. 😉

Tim
Guest
Tim

Though shit: it’ll teach them not to betray their country and not to trust Washington.

Brad Golding
Guest
Brad Golding

Oustanding result. You have to hand it to Putin and Lavrov, both master diplomats and politicians, mainly because nations are waking up to the fact that Russia can be trusted to keep her word truly help in this conflict with genuine concern for all parties. This is something beyond the comprehension of the US administration which is simply unaware of what Russia has done for them.

Barak G.
Guest
Barak G.

The author likes to repeat what a big looser the Turks have been: defeat in Syria, collapsing economy, boxed in, squeezed, ……..really ? EU’s biggest economy Germany is officially in recession, France gets hit with demonstrations almost constantly, Brexit farce isn’t getting resolved, Hong Kong is a mess, Egypt protests are coming back, Israel is in a political turmoil, Greece and the Eu are getting ready for another wave of refuges, ….should we continue ? The truth is that everybody has some sort of a problem not just Turkey. Now coming back to Syria, Turkey had never intentions of grabbing… Read more »

Jane Karlsson
Guest
Jane Karlsson

Turkey never intended to grab Syria’s resources? What about the oil it grabbed? What about the looted factories?

befairandopenminded
Guest
befairandopenminded

First part you are right EU and all, second about Turkey DEadwrong.
ERdolf bought the IS oil for cheap and financed that way the war and IS was treated and passed in and out via T.
Also Erdolphs son in law dealt that oil and made Millions..it was all over Turkish TV as opposition even took pics and proves the case…E and son in law huge criminals.
Btw HUGE fan or Fred. P. read you since many years on strategic.c. org
excellent analysis for all. I read Zuesse and all others, too but Fred. is by far the very best excellent.

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