Steven Sahiounie
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of this site. This site does not give financial, investment or medical advice.
Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
The political and strategic confrontation between Turkey and Israel has entered one of its most dangerous phases in decades, raising growing concerns that the war of words between Ankara and Tel Aviv could evolve into a broader regional crisis. Amid mounting tensions over Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, the Eastern Mediterranean, and regional influence, both countries are increasingly viewing one another not merely as political rivals, but as long-term geopolitical threats.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan intensified his rhetoric against Israel recently, warning that Israel’s expanding military operations in the Middle East now constitute a direct threat to Turkey’s national security and to regional stability across the Mediterranean basin.
Speaking before lawmakers from his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the Turkish parliament on June 10, Erdoğan said, “The attacks carried out by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his network of killing across Lebanon and Syria have reached a point where they now threaten Turkey as well.”
“Restoring Israel to the boundaries of international law is no longer the responsibility of a few countries; it has become a duty for all humanity,” he stated.
Escalating Political Hostility
Erdoğan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have repeatedly exchanged harsh accusations in recent years. Erdoğan has frequently accused Israel of destabilizing the region and escalating conflicts across the Middle East, while Netanyahu has condemned Turkey’s support for Hamas and criticized Erdoğan’s increasingly assertive regional policies.
The current wave of tensions intensified after remarks made by Turkish Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi, who expressed hope for the “liberation of Jerusalem,” saying:
“Just as we witnessed the liberation of Damascus, Aleppo, and Karabakh, we will one day witness the liberation of Jerusalem as well.”.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz responded sharply criticizing what he described as “Ottoman imperial dreams,” arguing that modern Turkey was drifting away from the secular legacy established by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.
Strategic Competition in the Eastern Mediterranean
According to Israeli newspaper analyses, Ankara is deeply concerned by Israel’s expanding regional influence following the October 7 attack by Hamas. and Israel’s subsequent military operations in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran. Turkish officials reportedly view these developments as evidence of Israel emerging as a dominant regional power.
At the same time, Turkey itself has pursued an increasingly assertive foreign policy over the past decade. Ankara has conducted military operations in northern Syria, supported Azerbaijan during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, deployed forces to Libya, and repeatedly clashed with Greece and Cyprus over maritime boundaries and energy exploration rights in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “Erdoğan, who suppresses his own people, imprisons political opponents, and supports Hamas, is the last person who can lecture Israel on morality.”
Israel’s Evolving View of Turkey
According to reports, recommendations issued in early 2025 by Israel’s Nagel Committee — an intelligence advisory body composed of defense and security experts — classified Turkey as Israel’s primary long-term strategic threat over the coming decade.
Israeli analysts increasingly portray Turkish decision-makers as sophisticated geopolitical actors rather than merely populist political figures. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett reportedly described Turkey as “the new Iran,” warning that Ankara’s growing regional influence poses a serious challenge to Israeli interests.
Israeli concerns center on Turkey’s attempts to build a regional security framework involving major Muslim powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan. In response, Israel is reportedly working to strengthen an alternative strategic alignment involving Israel, Greece, Cyprus, India, and France.
Analysts argue that these competing regional blocs could redefine power balances across the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean for years to come.
The Syrian Dimension
Syria remains one of the most sensitive arenas in the Turkish-Israeli rivalry. Turkey views Israeli engagement with Kurdish armed groups and certain minority factions (Druze) inside Syria as a threat to Syrian territorial integrity and to Turkish national security. Ankara also fears that prolonged instability in Syria or the fragmentation of neighboring states could fuel separatist movements and regional chaos.
Israeli analysts, meanwhile, increasingly view Turkey’s deep involvement in Syria as part of Ankara’s broader ambition to establish a dominant sphere of influence stretching from the Caucasus to the Levant.
The newspaper argued that Turkey’s growing role in Syrian political stabilization and regional diplomacy reflects Ankara’s ambition to position itself as a central power broker in the emerging regional order.
A Regional Power Struggle
The broader geopolitical implications of the Turkish-Israeli rivalry are becoming increasingly evident.
Some analysts now believe the Middle East is witnessing the emergence of two competing strategic camps.
One bloc is said to include Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan. The opposing alignment reportedly consists of Israel, India, the United Arab Emirates, and Greece.
This realignment has accelerated following the weakening of Iran and its regional allies after recent conflicts involving Israel and the United States.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently summarized Ankara’s evolving worldview by declaring, “There is no Palestinian problem, Lebanese problem, Syrian problem, Yemeni problem, or Iranian problem. Clearly, there is an Israeli problem.”
Could the Rivalry Turn Military?
Despite increasingly hostile rhetoric, most experts still consider the possibility of direct military confrontation between Turkey and Israel unlikely in the near term.
Turkey remains a NATO member with the alliance’s second-largest military force, while Israel maintains overwhelming technological and intelligence superiority in the region.
However, analysts warn that indirect confrontation is already underway through political influence campaigns, economic pressure, proxy conflicts, intelligence operations, and diplomatic competition.
Turkish analysts believe Israel could attempt to weaken Turkey economically or politically through international pressure and influence networks, such as AIPAC.
A New Middle Eastern Order
The current Turkish-Israeli confrontation reflects more than a temporary diplomatic crisis. It signals a deeper transformation in the regional balance of power.
As Iran’s regional influence weakens and traditional Arab alliances evolve, Turkey and Israel are increasingly emerging as rival centers of power competing to shape the future political and security architecture of the Middle East.
Whether this rivalry remains confined to political rhetoric and strategic competition — or escalates into something far more dangerous — may become one of the defining geopolitical questions of the coming decades.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist.
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of this site. This site does not give financial, investment or medical advice.
