The endgame of the Ukraine war points toward a nuclear ‘game of chicken’.

20 October 2026, posted by Eric Zuesse. (All of my recent articles can be seen here.)

https://theduran.com/desperate-maneuvers-to-get-russia-to-stop/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFXI2hkPzkY

“Desperate Maneuvers To Get Russia To Stop”

20 October 2026 Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris

ALEX CHRISTOFOROU: All right, Alexander, let’s talk about what is happening with Project Ukraine. Uh things are getting pretty crazy with the diplomacy side of things when it comes to the military conflict. Uh Russia is is winning. They’re grinding Ukraine down and nothing is is going to to change that trajectory. Doesn’t seem like anything’s going to change that trajectory. Every day it gets worse and worse for Ukraine. And of course, as you said many times, uh ultimately that is the driving factor to all the madness that we’re seeing on on the diplomacy side of things. If Ukraine was actually winning the conflict, if Ukraine was even in a stalemate with Russia, as they’ve been telling us for the past year, you would not have this this madness, this fighting going on in uh in the collective west. So we do have uh fighting which is taking place allegedly fighting between Trump and Zelensky between Trump and the Europeans. We also have talks of diplomacy perhaps a big three meeting taking place in uh in China in November at the APEC summit between Trump Xi and uh and Putin. The reports are that uh project Ukraine is going to be top of of the agenda. And of course, we have the the Europeans who are now ready for for talks with Russia. Uh we have Witkoff in Oslo traveling to Oslo so that he can coordinate with the Europeans so that they can uh put together some sort of unified proposal to to Putin. And it is rumored that Witkoff after Oslo, he’s going to travel to Moscow to present this unified proposal. So you have this fighting between the United States, Ukraine, and Europe. But you also have this coordination between the United States, Europe, and Ukraine to put together a unified proposal. One more quick uh point, Alexander, Financial Times is reporting that the Europeans, as they prepare these proposals, as they’re ready to talk with Russia, they’re going to present a plan which is based on two options. Option number one, according to the Financial Times, is uh is no NATO for Ukraine, but the conflict uh is uh is frozen at the current contact lines. Or option number two is that uh that Ukraine cedes the Donbass to Russia, but Ukraine gets uh entry into NATO. Those are those are the options that the Europeans are are putting together according to the Financial Times and I’m sure that’s going to be discussed with Whit in Oslo >> and I imagine all of these things if the reporting is accurate and we do see Whit go to Moscow which has not been confirmed but let’s just say this is the the plan. All of this stuff is going to be presented to to Putin and to uh to Russia. What are your thoughts on everything that is going on? >> ALEXANDER MERCOURIS: I mean you’re you’re absolutely right. I mean it is the military situation that is creating this fever. Um and we discussed this in program after program over the course of this autumn. Um from early September it became clear that the situation in Ukraine was changing dramatically and in a way that basically tells us that we’re moving towards some kind of end game. an endgame which represents a Ukrainian defeat and a western defeat, a European defeat mo first and foremost, but also at some level a defeat for the United States or at least now for the Trump administration, which as you have correctly said in many programs because it took the choice when Trump became president to engage in Ukrainian diplomacy and continue to support Ukraine now owns the war. So since early September, they’ve been trying to put some kind of strategy together, some kind of package together to try to persuade the Russians to stop. This is what this is all about now. It’s no longer about um forcing the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine. It’s purely a game of trying to persuade the Russians to stop stop on the existing conflict lines to agree to a frozen conflict. And we had the trip by John Radcliffe to um Moscow. Well, we now know that he did make all kinds of threats. He told the Russians, “You’re losing the war.” He told the Russians that if you continue with the war, it’s all going to get worse for you. that um eventually you will go the way of the Soviet Union which the Russians didn’t like at all and that was why they refused a a meeting for him with Vladimir Putin. Then we got Witkoff and Kushner turning up in Moscow later in September. This time offering bribes, offers of economic cooperation, all of those things. The Russians said no to that again. Then we’ve had further discussions, all kinds of talk about some kind of European American uh package being prepared, an attempt to set up talks between the Russians, the Ukrainians and the Americans in October. Putin told Trump when they spoke to each other on the 9th of October that the Russians are not interested in tripartite talks of that kind. Ukraine has just attacked Russia. It launched the attack on election day. The Russians don’t believe the Ukrainians are interested in negotiations. So tripartite negotiations clearly intended to try to get the Russians to agree to a freeze are off the table. And now we have the latest maneuvers. Uh these very complex offers that you’re talking about Ukraine out uh a freeze on the conflict lines, but Ukraine not joining NATO, at least for the moment, because as far as I can see, there’s not going to be any treaty or anything like that enshrining it. And of course, Zelensky remains in place and he’s going to make sure that that doesn’t there is not going to be a treaty or in the alternative Russia takes Donbass and the rest of Ukraine joins NATO which the Russians have already said is completely unacceptable. And the latest maneuver, and I have absolutely no doubt that this comes from the Americans ultimately and the Europeans, is a meeting um in November, a tripartite meeting between Trump, Putin, and C. And the idea is to get Trump and C to put pressure on Putin to agree to this. And here I want to just say something. The entire reporting is that it was Putin who proposed this tripartite meeting to Trump over the course of their telephone call on the 9th of October. I have not been able to find a single official Russian source that confirms this. I don’t believe that it was Putin’s idea. What the Americans, what the Trump administration has a habit of [clears throat] doing is it likes to present its own diplomatic initiatives as originating with the other side, making it more difficult for the other side to reject it. I think it was Trump’s idea to try to get this tripartite meeting. The Europeans and the Americans have long hankered for this idea of getting China to put pressure on Russia to stop. And I think that this is what this is all about. And if you look at the Russian commentaries about this, they’re very very guarded and um almost dismissive about this idea. They say that nothing has been agreed. there’s been no um actual um proposal made that they can work with. And just to say something, it is inconceivable to me that Putin would have proposed a tripartite summit meeting involving Cining to Trump without getting Cining’s agreement first. And there is no sign, no evidence at all that the Russians and the Chinese have been engaged in any discussion of that kind at all. >> U I I think you’re 1,000% right and I think we even have admission from Trump. >> Yeah. >> As to what you’re saying because when he was asked by reporters outside of the White House about a tripartite meeting to discuss Ukraine is what the reporters floated to Trump. >> Yeah. Trump said, and and I’m paraphrasing, I’m summarizing what he said, but you can you can listen to the interview. >> He said that he’s been wanting to get a tripartite meeting to talk about denuclearization. >> Yeah. >> Between China, Russia, and uh and the United States. So, I think in a way Trump kind of admitted that the United States has been looking for this uh this tripartite uh meeting. And and sure, if they’re in in China, the the thinking, and I think it’s there’s nothing wrong with it. The thinking is if we’re all in one place, then we can get a meeting and talk about denuclearization. And I think that that that got carried over or morphed into the the narrative of a solution for Ukraine because you have all of this this other diplomacy that’s taking place. And that’s how you got this story. I think you’re exactly I think Trump pretty much admitted that the idea of a of a tripartite meeting >> originates with him, >> but he was saying in the form of denuclearization >> and I just think it got manipulated and twisted into what we’re we’re seeing now and and what we saw from the reporting from uh the Wall Street Journal. >> I I absolutely agree. By the way, I I think the Chinese will not be keen on a meeting a tripartite meeting of that kind. I don’t think they want to discuss Ukraine with the Americans and the Russians in the same room. I think they’re perfectly happy with the the arrangements. Now, I think that Xi would be embarrassed to be in a meeting the same [snorts] uh pl meeting room with Trump and maneuvered into a situation where he might appear to be ganging up with Trump against Putin. I don’t think Xi would like that and Xi and the Chinese would absolutely not want to be in a meeting where uh nuclear issues were discussed with the Russians present because the Chinese have consistently resisted proposals that um the United States negotiate with China and Russia together issues of denuclearization because the Chinese worry that what the Americans are trying to do is to cap Russian and Chinese nuclear arsenals at a point when there are jointly equal to those of the United States and that isn’t what the Chinese want. They don’t want to be limited in terms of what they can achieve on the nuclear side by uh these American maneuvers. So I I I think that there might be a meeting by the way and as you rightly say it would be in some ways strange if the three leaders weren’t together but my s my suspicion is if a meeting does take place it will be relatively short and it will be basically ceremonial. Uh in other words an informal meeting between the three leaders which will not however deal with any of the substantive questions. Certainly not the questions about the crop the conflict in Ukraine. And here by the way we come to the fundamental critical point because the Russians as you absolutely rightly say are now visibly winning the war and events are moving towards a situation where the war is going to take an even more decisive turn in a few months. We  are probably seeing the Rasvet system already in operation in some respects. The Russians are conducting drone strikes in western Ukraine. Many I including myself believe that this can only be because the drones are getting some help from Rasvet. But the constellation, the Rasvet constellation is far from complete. When it is completed, the Russians will be in an even stronger position to attack anywhere they want, wherever they want in Ukraine 24/7, which they’re not able to do at the moment. And we will start to see even more powerful Russian weapons start to appear. We have the Oreshnik in the background. We have a new version of the Scandal in the background. They’re all coming on stream. And of course beneath everything there is this deepening financial crisis in Ukraine itself. The European Union is rushing to try to plug the financial holes. But these are getting bigger and bigger and it’s causing enormous strain in Europe and it’s leading to further dissension in Europe about what to do with the Russian assets. So everything the picture is getting worse and is getting darker. But the one thing that the Americans the Europeans continue to refuse to do and are imaginatively unable to do is to negotiate with the Russians on the basis of the Russian proposals Istanbul plus. Even though my own view is that the window for with is stumble plus is rapidly closing. If you look at Putin’s comments over the last few weeks, especially his comments at the last meeting of the generals, he is clearly looking now at a military end to the war. It’s it’s odd that you have this uh [sighs] this very publicized fighting that is taking place between Trump and Zelensky. Trump even going as far as as saying that uh that Ukraine needs a new um person to negotiate, a new leader to negotiate. basically Trump saying that Zelensky has to go and and you have the the reports that the United States is cutting intel, that the United States is messing around with Starlink. You have all of this which is very public, but in the background you have the exact reverse, the exact opposite. You have Witkoff working with the Europeans and and the articles claim that Witkoff has been working with the Europeans for a couple of weeks now as you have all this fighting taking place in the public sphere. You have Witkoff allegedly working with the Europeans and the Ukrainians in the background so that they can put together this proposal. And a lot of this proposal, if you go once again off of the Financial Times article and their reporting, a lot of it is is being driven by the Europeans. In other words, the Europeans are are saying these are the two options that we should we should present to Russia. We’ll see if if this is indeed what’s going to be presented to Russia. But basically, they’re presenting nothing to Russia. >> No. >> Right. Because they go back to Ukraine getting into NATO or they say we’ll uh we’ll um we’ll freeze the conflict and no NATO. Well, the Russians have already said they’re never going to accept a freeze. So, that option is off the table. And then the other option of ceding Donbass and Ukraine going into NATO. Well, the Russians are going to take Donbas. You have to be freaking delusional at this point to believe that Russia is not going to capture Donbas. Russia is going to capture Donbas. Whether it’s next week or whether it’s in one year, Donbas is going to be captured. That’s that’s just just a fact now. Yes, >> it’s going to happen. So, the Russians are going to sit back and say, “Well, what exactly are you offering us, right? You’re offering us nothing.” But it seems as if as if we’re being set up for for for some sort of of of a of a fake out, some sort of a deception where once again the the the Europeans, the collective West will find a way to unite with the United States as well and they’ll blame everything on Russia and this will lead to another reason for more escalation. I believe the >> the whole talk about Starlink is is all about getting to a point where the uh the United States turns on Star Shield for Ukraine and turns on Starlink over Russia. I I believe that’s where all of this is leading so that we get to a point where where Russia’s blamed. Russia Russia will accept no ceasefire. They’ll accept no deals. Therefore, the only way forward is is more escalation. And we’ve seen Trump flip-flop many times. Yes, he’s fought with Zelensky, then he’s hanging out and buddying around with Zelensky. So, we’ve seen this this movie play out over and over again. And that’s that’s the sense that that I’m getting from all of this. and and I just can’t help but but but come to the conclusion that the United States is working very closely with Ukraine and with the Europeans and you have this Financial Times article drop so that they can present once again some sort of uh terms to Russia and Russia when Russia turns down those terms everything’s going to flip. >> Yeah. >> And we’re going to get back to to the escalation escalator. I mean what do you think of of of all of that? >> I am absolutely of the same view as you. First of all, as you know, I am deeply skeptical about all of these reports that we’ve had about problems, issues with Starlink um intelligence, lack of intelligence sharing. My own view, which I’ve never shifted from, is that if the Ukrainians are indeed having problems getting advanced warnings about Russian missile strikes, that tells us more about the missiles and the nature of the way in which the Russians are conducting the strikes than it is about a lack of intelligence sharing by the United States. The the Americans themselves have actually at times pushed back. They say we have not stopped intelligence sharing with the Ukrainians. They can’t come out and straightforwardly say that we we can’t track Zircon hypersonic missiles because they’re too fast because that would be revealing a military secret. But if there are problems as I said getting advanced warnings I suspect that’s where they come from. Similarly about Starlink itself, there’s been over the last couple of weeks a clear attempt to sow confusion between Starlink and Star Shield, which at one time [snorts] we’re being told are completely different systems and then at other times they sound as if they’re just aspects of one in the same system. Again, I don’t think there’s been any change in American provision of staling to Ukraine at all. I think that the Americans have not up to now given Ukraine full use of of Star Shield because they’ve been worried about deep strikes inside Russia, which would be a major further escalation. But this entire debate that we’re now starting to see strongly suggests that that is now a topic for discussion of giving the Ukrainians Starshield. Whenever the Americans have tried to get the Russians to stop and the Russians have refused to stop, what has happened has been that the Americans have turned to escalation. We saw this in the late spring of last year when the Russians rejected the Kellogg plan. You remember the Kellogg plan, the ceasefire and all of that. And uh Trump was then persuaded by Radcliffe and all of the others to give the green light to what I have no doubt was the already existing plan to conduct massive drone and missile strikes against Russia to authorize this huge drone offensive that was already being prepared. And now it’s now I’ve actually read it somewhere that it’s acknowledged that Trump in the late spring early summer authorized a huge expansion in American intelligence and targeting support to the Ukrainians to enable them to carry out these deep drone attacks on Russia. So there was this enormous escalation over the course of the summer. It didn’t achieve the results that were expected. The Russians remained firm. Their economy and their political system remained stable. There’s been, I am sure, a lot of recrimination about this. Trump angry with Ratcliffe probably. Trump angry with Zelensky. Zelensky is in some ways the easy target to criticize. He doesn’t want to talk, you know, criticize Radcliffe himself. But I mean, there’s all of this uh noise that we’re hearing is partly probably recriminations about the failure of the big drone offensive against uh Russia. That’s probably one of the reasons why Trump is criticizing the attacks on the refineries. But ultimately that what they’re trying to do is to to repeat the Kellogg plan, persuade the Russians to stop to agree to a ceasefire on the existing conflict lines. And um if the Russians refuse to stop, then we’re inevitably going to see another turn to escalation. Again, by the way, there is nothing new about this. I remember I’m one of these people who have, you know, sometimes people say, cursed with a good memory. I remember this all happening during the Vietnam War leading to American exit from Vietnam. It was exactly the same. We had years of it, by the way. The Americans trying to get the Vietnamese to make fundamental concessions. The Vietnamese refusing to make those concessions. The Americans one moment trying negotiations to try to get the Vietnamese to change and back down, the next moment escalating. There was, for example, the famous or infamous Christmas bombings of Hanoi. and um the Vietnamese remaining firm in response to all of this and the Americans becoming increasingly frustrated and increasingly angry and if you read Kissinger’s memoirs it’s all that so um it’s essentially the same thing and it’s playing out now we are going to see one at least one further another big round of escalation attempted by the United States and the Europeans probably um sometime this winter. >> Well, it they’ve only got one one big round left unless we talk about troops in Ukraine, boots on the ground or nuclear war. They’ve really only got one big round left. And that big round is, and we’ve said it many times, it’s uh it’s turning on Starlink over Russia. Yeah. >> As well as uh as long range missile strikes, ballistic missiles, Tomahawks and missiles such as such as the Taurus cruise and and ballistic missiles long range into Moscow coupled with Starlink being uh turned down. That’s the one big round of escalation that they have left which they probably believe will not lead to to an allout NATO-Russia war. The United States believe this. The Europeans I think are there’s parts of the European elite that would be more than happy to see a NATO Russia war. But absolutely the people in the Pentagon and and the Trump administration are probably saying, “Look, we can do this one more >> uh big escalation and Putin will still show restraint.” >> So So that’s the big escalation that that they have left. And I think that’s where we’re we’re heading uh towards. >> I mean, just one final point. It’s it it’s so it’s so manipulative, so deceptive what’s happening in the public space with this fight between Zelensky and Trump that you even have Axios reporting that Zalensky is lobbying US senators against Trump, even Republican Senators. He’s had a phone call with the senators in uh in DC, >> even on the Republican side of things, as well as the Democrats like Blumenthal and these guys. and he’s telling them that uh that Trump he believes that that the Trump White House is is making things difficult on Ukraine. They’re not sending Patriot missiles to Ukraine. What? They don’t have any Patriot interceptors anymore. But it was what Zelensky is telling senators that they’re turning off intel that they’re messing around with Starlink. Even Zelensky, when you go through the transcript that Axios magically obtained, [laughter] they managed to get a hold of the transcript of the call. But when you read through the transcript, it’s obvious Zelensky doesn’t even know what’s going on. >> No, >> it even says, I’ll even read you one part of the transcript. It says, “On on three occasions the past week, including on Sunday, Ukraine didn’t receive early warnings from the US about Russian ballistic missile attacks,” Zelensky said, suggesting it was a sign that intelligence sharing has been curbed. “We have received no clear explanations from Washington this happening,” he added. He doesn’t even know. He’s saying it’s suggesting that Intel has been cut off. He’s been going on TV saying Intel’s been cut off. >> Exactly. >> And in this transcript, he’s telling senators in the United States, I don’t really know if Intel’s been cut off. The fact that we’re not receiving warnings suggests it has. >> But isn’t it even more strange? Just a final point so you can close out the video. Isn’t it even more weird that you have Axios reporting about some some leader in Ukraine, this guy in Ukraine >> lobbying? Yes. >> US senators against the president of the United States. What the f is going on here? >> Well, absolutely. I mean, this is if I’m glad you brought this up because I mean it’s outrageous actually. I mean, they should be refusing his calls. I mean I if a foreign leader telephones uh uh members of Congress to lobby against the president of the United States, whatever opinion of those of the president those um congressional leaders have, they should be refusing to take his cause. I mean they they it is fundamentally a political leader of a foreign country inserting himself into the American political process. It is incredible that it is taking place. Now, by the way, about Zelensky himself, probably not understanding very much, still believing that it is within Trump’s power to magically produce Patriot missile interceptors when that is impossible. I I think this is absolutely true. By the way, I think that Zelensky’s grip on reality has never been particularly strong and I suspect it’s got even worse for him. And by the way, for lots of people, the idea that the United States has limits is something that they find extraordinarily difficult to accept or understand. And I think Zelensky is a particularly acute case of this.

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Investigative historian Eric Zuesse’s latest book, AMERICA’S EMPIRE OF EVIL: Hitler’s Posthumous Victory, and Why the Social Sciences Need to Change, is about how America took over the world after World War II in order to enslave it to U.S.-and-allied billionaires. Their cartels extract the world’s wealth by control of not only their ‘news’ media but the social ‘sciences’ — duping the public.