The catalyst that sent the overall situation into an uncontrolled spiral was the phone call made on the 15th April by US President Donald Trump to Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar declaring his support for Haftar. The Trump call was clearly unbeknownst to the US State Department and probably other US agencies and departments, and even some of Trump’s closest advisors.
The mixed signals from Washington create a farcical, even outright comical, set of contradictions that leave all Libyans wondering what the hell is going on while sending the international diplomatic community in Tripoli into utter confusion.
A few days after Haftar’s offensive, that began on the 4th April, France, Italy, the UAE, the UK, and the US released a joint statement calling for an end to the offensive. While other players like Egypt, Russia and Saudi Arabia worked their back channels to Field Marshall Haftar.
But total disunity quickly emerged between all these international
players that has subsequently destroyed UN efforts to get a resolution on the situation.
Is it any wonder why ordinary Libyans are completely confused?
All these international players hold diverging and different opposing interests in Libya.
A White House statement on April 19th said Mr Trump had discussed “ongoing counter-terrorism efforts”, acknowledging the Field Marshal’s “significant role in fighting terrorism and securing Libya’s oil resources”.
The US President’s remarks to Haftar were of course taken as an endorsement. How else could it have been interpreted by anyone, not least Haftar?
The diplomats from US and Russia on 18th April rejected a British proposed draft UN resolution that made any reference to Field Marshal Haftar and his forces; they wanted neither side named in the document. That also gave the impression that both superpowers were backing Haftar.
To compound the muddle, on the 1st May, the White House began, in essence, contradicting Trump, playing down the significance of his phone call and disputing the idea that it was backing Field Marshal Haftar over the UN recognised Government of National Accord, the GNA led by UN selected ‘Prime Minister’ Fayez Al Sarraj.
“The characterisations of conversations between the White House and Field Marshal Haftar are inaccurate,” wrote Garrett Marquis, a spokesman and special assistant to Trump.
Are you in a state of bewilderment as you read? Try and empathize with a Libyan trying to interpret these mixed messages.
All this while UN diplomats frantically scramble to make sense of American policy towards Libya in a bid to salvage diplomatic efforts.
“The US position is not understood. There have been different things said by different people,” a leading UN diplomat admitted though he wished to remain anonymous, adding that the US President’s phone call “may have been misread as support for Haftar.”
What do they smoke in the UN and is it the same stuff as they use in the US State Department?
For now, clearly, the prospect of a UN resolution calling for a ceasefire, is, to say the least, off the table.
In ‘Catch 22 speak’ the same UN anonymous source said “We have not abandoned our approach but we are not going to do something that would show the UN Council divided.” …Oh really!
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo only added to the uncertainty when he said: “the immediate halt to these military operations against the Libyan capital” adding “a political solution is the only way to unify the country and provide a plan for security, stability and prosperity for all Libyans.”
It’s difficult not to laugh at the total lack of a coherent American foreign policy.
The almost Shakespearian tragedy that is Libya today, or aspects of it, can certainly be compared to the insanity of war evoked by the iconic Joseph Heller book, CATCH 22.
Here is a quote from that great anti-war book that most, if not all, Libyans will immediately relate to.
It typifies what the so called international community seem to be collectively saying, like a Doctor, to the Libyan people: “You have deep-seated survival anxieties and you don’t like bigots, bullies, snobs or hypocrites. Subconsciously there are many people you hate.”…”Consciously, sir, consciously,” (for Yossarian, read Libyans) Yossarian corrected the Doctor in an effort to help. “I hate them all consciously.”
As a counter measure, in an effort to neutralize Trump’s apparent (yet patently obvious) personal support for Haftar, Serraj’s GNA in Tripoli signed a contract worth $2m with a leading ‘K Street’ lobbying firm in Washington according to a recent FARA filing, the Libyan government hired Mercury Public Affairs on April 26th to “provide strategic consulting and management services” which in ‘real speak’ means lobbying Congress and the Trump administration, “identify interest groups allied with Client and coordinate support,” the usual public relations BS.
The contract with Mercury stipulates that the GNA will make an initial payment of $500,000, along with paying $150,000 per month and an additional $50,000 per quarter for expenses related to ‘services.’
The contract shows Mercury’s contract was signed by the GNA’s Yousef al-Mabrouk, Chief of Staff for the Office of ‘Prime Minister’ Serraj.
Mercury’s history includes assisting former British Minister, Greg Barker and the Russian Oleg Deripaska linked energy company in an effort to overturn U.S. sanctions on the oligarch’s business. Note David Cameron created several controversial peerages. One was not necessarily the boyish looking Barker, who, in October 2015, was created Baron (Lord) Barker of Battle….of Battle in the County of East Sussex. An aside.
Other Mercury clients have included the Turkish, Japanese, Haitian, Kazakhstani and Qatari governments, as well as a Guyanese political party and a Romanian political party.
The fact is the UN recognised Serraj GNA government in Tripoli has, what constitutes its Armed Forces, a coalition of an unknown number of militias of different shades of political and religious persuasions, and it is they in reality that control Tripoli.
The UAE the other day honestly and accurately described, in a communique, the situation in the Libyan capital by saying “extremist militias control Tripoli and Khalifa Haftar is fighting to capture such terrorist militias” adding “fighting terrorism in Libya is the priority to ending the crisis.”
The UAE’s most senior Foreign Office Minister, Dr Gargash, in a tweet said:
“Priority in Libya to counter extremism/ terrorism & support stability in long drawn out crisis. Meanwhile extremist militias continue to control capital and derail search for political solution,”
UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said on Wednesday 1st May that since the Haftar offensive on Tripoli began,102 civilian casualties have been verified, including 23 fatalities, and over 45,000 people have fled their homes.
If I were a Libyan, I couldn’t escape the truth of this last quote from the book Catch 22:
“When I look up, I see people cashing in. I don’t see heaven or saints or angels. I see people cashing in on every decent impulse and every human tragedy.”