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Swedish expert: why lockdowns are the wrong policy – The Post

https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

That was one of the more extraordinary interviews we have done here at UnHerd.

Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:

  • UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
  • The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
  • This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
  • The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
  • The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
  • The paper was very much too pessimistic
  • Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
  • The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
  • The results will eventually be similar for all countries
  • Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
  • The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
  • At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

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Sally Snyder
Sally Snyder
April 21, 2020

Here is a fascinating look at the real COVID-19 infection rate from a recent study:

https://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-actual-prevalence-of-covid-19.html

The initial calculations from this study suggests that the fatality rate of COVID-19 may be no worse than seasonal influenza.

Clarity
Clarity
Reply to  Sally Snyder
April 21, 2020

Since it is still the middle of the cycle, the current death rates are irrelevant. It is impossible to calculate something with incomplete data. What we keep looking at with every changing report is a mere guess. Every friggin article has a different way to calculate the death rate. Fact is, that there are clusters with different rates of infection. The City of Vo in Italy has a confirmed infection rate of 45%, which would mean a very low death rate, from corona. But, the overall deaths have increased. Meaning more people die than do on average. In Bergamo Italy… Read more »

jenny 234
jenny 234
April 21, 2020

A lot of us already know this – the point now is how can the people in the UK end this bloody nightmare??

Conor Hanley
Conor Hanley
Reply to  jenny 234
April 22, 2020

You might think you know but you don’t and how the people of the UK can end this nightmare is rather vague at the moment. It’s complex and not subject to gut feelings

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