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Skripal crisis: Russia rejects UK ultimatum; demands chemical samples

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says UK not meeting its international obligations

Alexander Mercouris

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Russia has now publicly responded to the British government’s ultimatum – set out in Theresa May’s statement yesterday – that unless Russia provides a ‘credible response’ to the British enquiry about Russia’s custody of Novichok chemicals by close of business today, then the British government will treat the attack on Skripal as the action of the Russian state.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has dismissed Britain’s claim of Russia’s involvement in Skripal’s poisoning as “nonsense”.  He has also said that Britain has refused Russia’s offer of cooperation to solve the case, and has also refused what he called Russia’s “legal request” for samples of the chemical used to attack Skripal so that Russia can carry out its own tests.

Latest reports also say that the Russians have summoned the British ambassador to the Russian Foreign Ministry.

That the Russians have rejected yesterday’s British ultimatum will surprise no-one.  I would however point out how completely bizarre this whole situation has become.

The Russians are being asked to provide proof of their innocence – already a bizarre request – whilst being denied the evidence which supposedly ‘proves’ their guilt.

The British have referred to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (“OPCW”) as the agency to which the Russians are supposed to provide ‘proof’ of their innocence.

However whenever there have been chemical attacks in Syria the British and others have demanded that this same organisation should be the one to carry out the investigations into those attacks.

Those investigations, whenever they have happened, have taken months.

The British however in this case insist on carrying out the entire investigation by themselves despite the supposed international dimension of the case, refuse to share their evidence with the party they are accusing, claim to have come to a view within days, and are using the OPCW as nothing more than a post box.

The British do say that they have consulted ‘international experts’ who have verified the identity of the chemical that was used.

However we have no word of who these experts are or what were the criteria used for their selection, and their reports have not been published.

All this of course all relates solely to the identity of the chemical that was used in the attack.  Important though that information is, it is not and cannot be the entirety of the evidence used to make a finding of guilt or innocence in a case like this.

Perhaps the British have other evidence which they believe confirms Russia’s guilt but which is too classified to make public.

However in that case this evidence cannot be used to make a finding of guilt or innocence since the party accused – in this case Russia – is being denied access to this evidence and is therefore denied a chance to refute it.

For what it’s worth my opinion based on what Theresa May said to Parliament yesterday is that the British have no such further evidence.  If they did I would have expected her to at least to hint at it.On the contrary the fact that Theresa May even raised the possibility that the attack might have been the work of a rogue element shows how little about the attack the British actually know.

It is precisely because the British have no conclusive evidence which proves Russian guilt – secret or otherwise – that they are trying to create the appearance of such evidence by sending to the Russians an ultimatum which reverses the burden of proof.

There has been much discussion in the British media about how yesterday Theresa May put Vladimir Putin on the spot.

On the contrary my opinion is that the person who Theresa May put on the spot yesterday – and not for the first time since she became Prime Minister – is herself.

Having cranked up the crisis to extraordinary levels – with massive deployments of troops and anti-terrorist police to investigate the incident, and with contradictory and alarming messages given to the people of Salisbury – and having given Russia an ultimatum yesterday – and done so moreover in the most public way possible – Theresa May will struggle to live up to expectations she has herself created.

Already talk of England pulling out of the World Cup in Russia looks to have been abandoned – it would be deeply unpopular with the English public – and wild talk of breaking off diplomatic relations with Russia and launching cyber attacks against Russia are utterly self-defeating and look farfetched.  I sense no enthusiasm in Europe for further significant sanctions against Russia, and talk of an appeal to NATO under Article 5 is already being discounted.

Yet if Theresa May fails to live up to the expectations she has herself created she risks being humiliated and looking weak.

There has been much talk in Britain of how Theresa May has been pressured into taking this extreme stand by hardliners within the British government.

If so then it is yet more evidence – if any more were needed – that Britain has a weak Prime Minister who is easily pressured into taking steps which are counterproductive and contrary to Britain’s own interests.

By contrast Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in Parliament yesterday – by refusing to join in the finger pointing against Russia, by speaking of the need for a continued dialogue with Russia, and by calling for the investigation into the Skripal attack to be allowed to take its course – cut a lonely figure of good sense.

The fact that he did so in the face of what he must have known in advance would be universal outrage and condemnation from across Britain’s political and media establishment shows that he possesses reserves of strength and self-confidence which Theresa May utterly lacks.

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BREXIT chaos, as May’s cabinet crumbles (Video)

The Duran Quick Take: Episode 18.

Alex Christoforou

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The Duran’s Alex Christoforou and Editor-in-Chief Alexander Mercouris take a quick look at the various scenarios now facing a crumbling May government, as the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is forcing cabinet members to resign in rapid succession. The weekend ahead is fraught with uncertainty for the UK and its position within, or outside, the European Union.

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If Theresa May’s ill-fated Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is eventually rejected this could trigger a vote of no confidence, snap elections or even a new referendum…

Here are six possible scenarios facing Theresa May and the UK (via The Guardian)

1 Parliament blocks Theresa May’s draft withdrawal agreement and political declarations

May faces an enormous task to win parliamentary approval, given that Labour, the SNP, the DUP and 51 Tories have said they will not vote for it.

If the remaining 27 EU member states sign off the draft agreement on 25 November, the government will have to win over MPs at a crucial vote in early December.

If May loses the vote, she has 21 days to put forward a new plan. If she wins, she is safe for now.

2 May withdraws the current draft agreement

The prime minister could decide that she will not get the draft agreement through parliament and could seek to renegotiate with the EU.

This would anger Tory backbenchers and Brussels and would be seen as a humiliation for her government. It might spark a leadership contest too.

3 Extend article 50

May could ask the European council to extend article 50, giving her more time to come up with a deal that could be passed by parliament – at present, the UK will leave on 29 March 2019.

Such a request would not necessarily be granted. Some EU governments are under pressure from populist parties to get the UK out of the EU as soon as possible.

4 Conservative MPs trigger a vote of no confidence in the prime minister

If Conservative MPs believe May is no longer fit for office, they could trigger a no-confidence vote.

Members of the European Research Group claim that Graham Brady, the chair of the powerful 1922 Committee, will receive the necessary 48 letters this week.

A vote could be held as soon as early next week. All Tory MPs would be asked to vote for or against their leader. If May wins, she cannot be challenged for at least 12 months. If she loses, there would be a leadership contest to decide who will become prime minister.

5 General election – three possible routes

If May fails to get support for the current deal, she could call a snap general election.

She would table a parliamentary vote for a general election that would have to be passed by two thirds of MPs. She would then set an election date, which could be by the end of January.

This is an unlikely option. May’s political credibility was severely damaged when she called a snap election in 2017, leading to the loss of the Conservative party’s majority.

Alternatively, a general election could be called if a simple majority of MPs vote that they have no confidence in the government. Seven Tory MPs, or all of the DUP MPs, would have to turn against the government for it to lose the vote, triggering a two-week cooling-off period. May would remain in office while MPs negotiate a new government.

Another route to a general election would be for the government to repeal or amend the Fixed-term Parliaments Act which creates a five-year period between general elections. A new act would have to be passed through both the Commons and the Lords – an unlikely scenario.

6 Second referendum

May could decide it is impossible to find a possible draft deal that will be approved by parliament and go for a people’s vote.

The meaningful vote could be amended to allow MPs to vote on whether the country holds a second referendum. It is unclear whether enough MPs would back a second referendum and May has ruled it out.

 

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Brexit Withdrawal Agreement may lead to Theresa May’s downfall (Video)

The Duran – News in Review – Episode 151.

Alex Christoforou

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The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement has been published and as many predicted, including Nigel Farage, the document is leading to the collapse of Theresa May’s government.

During an interview with iTV’s Piers Morgan, remain’s Alistair Campell and leave’s Nigel Farage, were calling May’s Brexit deal a complete disaster.

Via iTV

Alastair Campbell: “This doesn’t do remotely what was offered…what is the point”

“Parliament is at an impasse”

“We have to go back to the people” …”remain has to be on the ballot paper”

Nigel Farage:

“This is the worst deal in history. We are giving away in excess of 40B pounds in return for precisely nothing. Trapped still inside the European Union’s rulebook.

“Nothing has been achieved.”

“In any negotiation in life…the other side need to know that you are serious about walking away.”

“What monsieur Barnier knew from day one, is that at no point did Theresa May intend to walk away.”

“Fundamental matter of trust to the electors of our country and those who govern us.”

The Duran’s Alex Christoforou and Editor-in-Chief Alexander Mercouris discuss Theresa May’s Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, and why the deal is a full on victory for the European Union and a document of subjugation for the United Kingdom.

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Coming in at 585 pages, the draft agreement will be closely scrutinized over the coming days but here are some of the highlights as outlined by Zerohedge

  • UK and EU to use the best endeavours to supersede Ireland protocol by 2020
  • UK can request extension of the transition period any time before July 1st, 2020
  • EU, UK See Level-Playing Field Measures in Future Relationship
  • Transition period may be extended once up to date yet to be specified in the text
  • EU and UK shall establish single customs territory and Northern Ireland is in same customs territory as Great Britain

The future relationship document is less than seven pages long. It says the U.K. and EU are seeking a free-trade area with cooperation on customs and rules: “Comprehensive arrangements creating a free trade area combining deep regulatory and customs cooperation, underpinned by provisions ensuring a level playing field for open and fair competition.”

The wording might raise concerns among Brexiters who don’t want regulatory cooperation and the measures on fair competition could amount to shackling the U.K. to EU rules.

As Bloomberg’s Emma Ross-Thomas writes, “There’s a clear sense in the documents that we’re heading for a customs union in all but name. Firstly via the Irish backstop, and then via the future relationship.”

Separately, a government summary of the draft agreement suggests role for parliament in deciding whether to extend the transition or to move in to the backstop.

But perhaps most importantly, regarding the controversial issue of the Irish border, the future relationship document says both sides aim to replace the so-called backstop – the thorniest issue in the negotiations – with a “subsequent agreement that establishes alternative arrangements for ensuring the absence of a hard border on the island of Ireland on a permanent footing.”

On this topic, recall that the U.K.’s fear was of being locked into the backstop arrangement indefinitely in the absence of a broader trade deal. The draft agreement includes a review process to try to give reassurance that the backstop would never be needed. Basically, the U.K. could choose to seek an extension to the transition period – where rules stay the same as they are currently – or opt to trigger the backstop conditions. In fact, as Bloomberg notes, the word “backstop,” which has been a sticking point over the Irish border for weeks, is mentioned only once in the text.

As Bloomberg further adds, the withdrawal agreement makes clear that the U.K. will remain in a single customs area with the EU until there’s a solution reached on the Irish border. It’s what Brexiteers hate, because it makes it more difficult for the U.K. to sign its own free-trade deals, which they regard as a key prize of Brexit.

Predictably, EU Commission President Juncker said decisive progress has been made in negotiations.

Meanwhile, as analysts comb over the documents, Jacob Rees-Mogg, chairman of the European Research Group, has already written to Conservative lawmakers urging them to vote against the deal. He says:

  • May is handing over money for “little or nothing in return”
  • The agreement treats Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the U.K.
  • It will “lock” the U.K. into a customs union with the EU
  • It breaks the Tory election manifesto of 2017

The full document…

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4 resignations and counting: May’s government ‘falling apart before our eyes’ over Brexit deal

The beginning of the end for Theresa May’s government.

The Duran

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Via RT


Four high profile resignations have followed on the heels of Theresa May’s announcement that her cabinet has settled on a Brexit deal, with Labour claiming that the Conservative government is at risk of completely dissolving.

Shailesh Vara, the Minister of State at the Northern Ireland Office was the first top official to resign after the prime minister announced that her cabinet had reached a draft EU withdrawal agreement.

An hour after his announcement, Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab – the man charged with negotiating and finalizing the deal – said he was stepping down, stating that the Brexit deal in its current form suffers from deep flaws. Esther McVey, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, submitted her letter of resignation shortly afterwards. More resignations have followed.

Labour’s shadow Cabinet Office minister, Jon Trickett, predicted that this is the beginning of the end for May’s government.

The government is falling apart before our eyes as for a second time the Brexit secretary has refused to back the prime minister’s Brexit plan. This so-called deal has unraveled before our eyes

Shailesh Vara: UK to be stuck in ‘a half-way house with no time limit’

Kicking off Thursday’s string of resignations, Vara didn’t mince words when describing his reservations about the cabinet-stamped Brexit deal.

Theresa May’s EU withdrawal agreement leaves the UK in a “halfway house with no time limit on when we will finally become a sovereign nation,” his letter of resignation states. Vara went on to warn that the draft agreement leaves a number of critical issues undecided, predicting that it “will take years to conclude” a trade deal with the bloc.

“We will be locked in a customs arrangement indefinitely, bound by rules determined by the EU over which we have no say,” he added.

Dominic Raab: Deal can’t be ‘reconciled’ with promises made to public

Announcing his resignation on Thursday morning, Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab tweeted: “I cannot in good conscience support the terms proposed for our deal with the EU.”

Raab claimed that the deal in its current form gives the EU veto power over the UK’s ability to annul the deal.

No democratic nation has ever signed up to be bound by such an extensive regime.

Former Conservative Party leader Iain Duncan Smith said that Raab’s resignation as Brexit secretary is “devastating” for May.

“It sounds like he has been ignored,” he told the BBC.

Raab’s departure will undoubtedly encourage other Brexit supporters to question the deal, political commentators have observed.

Esther McVey: Deal ‘does not honor’ Brexit referendum

Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey didn’t hold back when issuing her own letter of resignation. According to McVey, the deal “does not honour” the result of the Brexit referendum, in which a majority of Brits voted to leave the European Union.

Suella Braverman: ‘Unable to sincerely support’ deal

Suella Braverman, a junior minister in Britain’s Brexit ministry, issued her resignation on Thursday, saying that she couldn’t stomach the deal.

“I now find myself unable to sincerely support the deal agreed yesterday by cabinet,” she said in a letter posted on Twitter.

Suella Braverman, MP Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for the Department for Exiting the EU © Global Look Press / Joel Goodman
Braverman said that the deal is not what the British people voted for, and threatened to tear the country apart.

“It prevents an unequivocal exit from a customs union with the EU,” she said.

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