Russia or China (or both) Must Guarantee Iran’s Security

Maria Zakharova, of Russia’s Foreign Ministry, stated publicly on April 9th that, “Tehran cannot be held responsible for the consequences of the illegal actions of those who, through their shortsightedness and erroneous forecasting, undermined agreements”.

However, potentially more of a pragmatic strategic proposition, rather than a political statement, Zakharova also said that Russia hopes for “effective negotiable solutions” that will reduce tensions and prevent a war with Iran – a war that Israel and its subordinates (including many in US Congress) have brayed for, for decades now.

Both Russia and China oppose nuclear proliferation worldwide. And as such, both nations disfavor the prospect that Iran may achieve status as a nuclear power. But, like North Korea, Iran is always on the US ‘hit list’ and in the crosshairs, which places Iran in a precarious and supremely awkward position.

For Iran, the religious fatwa with regard to Iran’s possession and/or development of WMD’s is quite rigorous. Doctor Sirjani’s 2013 University of Kent paper on the subject states that:

‘The Fatwa issued at the highest level of state authority in Iran, is far more than, either an ordinary religious edict, or an expedient governance order of limited duration. Rather, it is both an extremely important religious edict, reflecting an Islamic primary order banning WMD, and a very significant governance order, with highly important legal, political, military and developmental implications.’ [1]

Uncharacteristically and ill-advised (in this author’s opinion) Iran’s leadership recently led the news with a story about Iran rescinding its fatwa on nuclear weapons, if US-Israeli threats versus Iran continue to mount. [2]  For Iran to make such a statement prior to negotiations taking place between Israel’s proxy – the United States – and Iran, about nuclear weapons (supposedly to occur Saturday the 12th of April) seems uncharacteristic of the Islamic State, and perhaps a blunder.

When Trump publicly announced direct talks with Iran three days ago  in the company of Netanyahu, Netanyahu appeared quite taken aback and seemed genuinely surprised, glancing sideways apparently with alarm, to his underlings to his right. (see from 2:11) Of course no statement of any kind from the White House may be believed or trusted, and it is unclear whether the talks with Iran will be direct or indirect, or even occur at all.

For many decades now US-Israeli threats versus Iran have escalated, since both see Iran as being a strategic competitor to western dominance in West Asia. With the Gulf Monarchies fully in Wall Street’s pocket, Iran could be the last major Middle East sovereign for the US and Israel to regime change.  Israel has threatened Iran with the so-called “Libya model”, where Libya’s leader agreed to abandon Libya’s nuclear weapons program, but was then murdered in a CIA regime-change coup.    Such a threat as that made by Israel, will only provoke Iran and not lead to Iran’s abandonment of any potential nuclear program.

Now, word within certain diplomatic circles (unreported in the west) is that Russia and/or China – may offer a security guarantee to Iran if Iran agrees to abandon any existing or future nuclear program. Russia and China could draft an ironclad agreement for Iran along those lines, to then present to US/Israel. Unfortunately, based on the chaos and duplicity endemic to the west, Russia and China may view US/Israel as being too unstable and too unreliable to negotiate with, ie to defuse the Iran crisis of Trump/Netanyahu’s making.

On the other hand, if Iran were to rescind its fatwa on nuclear weapons, and renew its nuclear enrichment efforts, wouldn’t consideration of that option force the hand of Russia and/or China, to outright publicly condemn US/Israeli threats versus Iran? And behoove Russia/China to provide that security guarantee to Iran?

As we have seen from Vietnam, to Iraq, to the Ukraine and Gaza, the concept that the US military may simply bludgeon a real or imagined enemy, and conquer it via occupation, war, death, and horror … no longer applies. Russia and China – and for that matter Iran, should take some wary comfort from that fact. And a scenario where Russia and China provide Iran with a security guarantee in lieu of Iran developing a nuclear weapon, seems to be the best solution to these western threats. Of course we know that the US and Israel are totally irrational and that both would rather engage in war than peace, for profit and hegemony.

But in the end, when all options are considered, for Russia or China (or both) to provide a security guarantee to Iran may be the only means by which the bloodshed that the US and Israel constantly bray for, may be avoided. Likewise, no one of sound mind wants a world war. But then again, the former United States, Israel, UK, and EU have proven their leadership to be of unsound mind… narrowly missing WW3 only due to Russia’s composure and restraint.

Another point is that Iran is not defenseless. I wrote about the folly of a western attack on Iran on this site some years ago – an article I still stand by.  Since then, we have seen Iran successfully retaliate versus Israeli aggression on October 1st 2024, (Nevatim airbase).  And when Israel attempted to attack Iran again October 25-26, 2024, the Israeli attack was easily repulsed.

Finally. The elephant in the room? – is that the MAGA “peace president” who railed against the MIC / CIA Deep State during his 2024 electoral campaign – is not a “peace president” at all. Trump is not MAGA. Trump is just as beholden to his donor masters as any president has ever been, since and including Lyndon Johnson. Trump is precisely the same limited hangout model that I wrote about here precisely six years ago.  Then again, US voters had virtually no choice. By analogy, the 2024 US presidential election was like a choice between death by hanging, or by the electric chair. The result, regardless of US political party in charge, is inevitable.

Hopefully. a US-Israel war on Iran is not.

[1]  Anne Applebaum/ Jeffrey Goldberg of the Atlantic magazine – a Neocon Atlanticist publication – just as strenuously deny that Iran’s religious fatwa vs nuclear weapons (as documented by Dr Sirjani’s paper) is valid. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/iran-nuclear-weapons-fatwa-khamenei/

[2] Khamenei’s adviser Ali Larijani made the statement on PressTV, Iran’s state television channel.

Steve Brown