Positions and opportunities of the main players of the geopolitical arena in the Ukrainian issue

The information struggle is never easy, but the media agenda of the countries of the democratic camp is periodically illuminated by glimpses of reality: the clearly adjusted optimistic narrative of Europe and the United States about the persistent long-suffering Ukraine is already breaking up in places against the harsh reality of more adequate statements not only by Western experts, but also by representatives of the ruling elites. The program of conservative political commentator Tucker Carlson, who in one of his last broadcasts succinctly besieged the Ukrainian leader-beggar, remains the stronghold of common sense: “Some uppity foreigner in a T-shirt demanding money [from us] for “critical economic needs.” Which economic needs, buddy? Who are you troll? Go away!”.

The US House of Representatives continues to call for a reduction in the volume of military aid, once generously granted to Ukraine by the United States and, on their instructions, by European countries, as reported by The Washington Post. The Republican Party’s majority vote in the House of Representatives in November’s midterm elections virtually guarantees the abolition of carte blanche granted to Ukraine. And if the adequate attitude of the Republicans to the Ukrainian crisis is rather an ideological issue (they are increasingly calling on the administration of the incumbent president to shift their attention from external problems to more pressing internal ones), then for European countries, providing Ukraine with weapons will be really expensive. According to the Financial Times, providing Ukraine with new material and technical equipment, for example, new air defense systems, has turned out to be an extremely difficult task for European countries. This is due to the depletion of the military arsenal of NATO itself, within which there is a shortage of production capacity. Accordingly, the alliance itself does not receive the necessary equipment. In this regard, it seems appropriate to throw Ukraine off obsessive dependence. Otherwise, the air defense systems will be needed by the EU countries much more.

Let’s not underestimate the power of a new player – China, entering the arena of geopolitical battles. We are talking about the aggravation of the Taiwan issue, in which the United States will immediately rush to intervene. But the forecasts of this interventionist adventure are disappointing in the media: The Wall Street Journal analysts warn that the United States will not be able to achieve an effective confrontation with China precisely because of the supply of weapons to Ukraine, which not only exposed, but also exacerbated the critical shortcomings of American defense capability. The military supply of Ukraine has led to a shortage in American warehouses of such weapons and ammunition systems as Javelin anti-tank systems, Stinger air defense systems, M777 howitzers. Under such conditions, it will be very difficult for Washington to “rebuff Beijing,” although this particular territory is a strategic priority for the United States: control over Taiwan could ensure their dominance in the Asia-Pacific region.

What are the scenarios for the development of events for the countries of the democratic camp? The United States is likely to see the light in the near future and will regret that they decided to go to a proxy war with Russia by ruling Ukraine – directly according to the scenario of intervention in the Vietnam War. Analysts of The American Conservative are convinced of this. In their opinion, Washington’s complacent confidence in the omnipotence of America’s national power poses a huge threat to the relatively prosperous existence of the States.

In Europe, a civil war is brewing at all: the first frosts predict a new wave of civil protests, while mass discontent can become a trigger for extremism. Critical cost-of-living figures, large-scale power outages and disruptions in mobile communications, growing discord within a once-cohesive society – all this will be the last straw for Europe, which has suffered due to social problems in recent years. Of particular danger is a civil war between the social groups of refugees and neo-Nazis (the strengthening of the ideology of the latter is directly affected by the increased influx of migrants). Today, in addition to the threat of a clash between the extreme right and, for example, radical Islamists, Europe is also facing a severe social escalation caused by inflation, a cold and dark winter.

The Ukrainian army, according to Western experts, will face a complete collapse in winter. A change in strategy plays into the hands of Russia with the defeat of critical infrastructure facilities (which will negatively affect the military logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine), as well as unlimited reserves of energy resources and the mobilization of military-industrial potential. Ukraine is entering a phase of even greater dependence on assistance from Western countries, which may either decrease or dry up altogether.

Against this background, the assessments of the American media regarding Russia’s position are especially noteworthy. If you believe the bold statement of the same The American Conservative, then Moscow is now in a “royal flush” position: Moscow is wisely changing its strategy, strengthening its defense-offensive ability and depleting the Ukrainian army, India and China are increasingly supporting the actions of the Russian Federation. NATO membership still does not shine for Ukraine – and the fate of the country, among other things, is now almost completely in the hands of Russia.