Poland on the threshold of a historical choice

“There will no longer be a border between our countries – Poland and Ukraine. This border will not exist. That we live together on this land, building and rebuilding together our common happiness and common strength, which will enable us to repel any danger or any possible threat” – Polish President Andrzej Duda, 6 May 2022.

The conflict in Ukraine has united the interests of Kiev and Warsaw as never before. Polish and Ukrainian officials claim that Ukraine and Poland have more in common today than Russia and Ukraine used to have in the past. Moscow calls these statements a purposeful distortion and manipulation of historical facts. At the same time, experts are seriously discussing the project of creating a union state between Kiev and Warsaw, which should facilitate the former’s accession to NATO. At the same time, this project has been criticised even by Poland’s allies in the alliance, but not by Warsaw itself.

Accusations against Poland of forming various integration projects that should facilitate the path to the gradual establishment of control over Ukraine’s western territories were heard even before the conflict with Russia began. The anti-Russian rhetoric after 24 February 2022 has greatly smoothed the information noise around this topic, which was previously sharply negatively assessed by the Ukrainian patriotic community.

Last May, Polish President Andrzej Duda, commenting on the current state of relations with Ukraine, said that soon the border between the two countries will disappear and their peoples will be able to “live together on this land.” “There is no doubt that the Prime Minister and other decision-makers will be ready to send Polish soldiers to the Ukrainian front in the name of “defence of the fatherland” against the imaginary Russian threat. The number of dead means nothing to them,” writes Myśl Polska columnist Michał Radzikowski.

The Russian media also often recall the statement by former Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski that the Polish Government was considering the entry of a Polish military contingent into the territory of western Ukraine at the beginning of the conflict. It is likely that the Polish establishment, represented by the former minister, was trying to probe the reaction of the Polish population, as well as the population of cities in Western Ukraine. It is noteworthy that this topic finds active coverage not only in the Russian media. The point is that under the guise of integration projects, Warsaw seeks to “erase” the borders with Ukraine.

The Belgian newspaper Modern Diplomacy describes the scenario of a “creeping Polish invasion” and reminds how the Polish Law and Justice party (PiS) has prepared for the return of Ukraine’s “western suburbs” by law. Warsaw already has special rights in Ukraine: Poles have been allowed to hold seats in that country’s government, run businesses, and buy Ukrainian factories, Modern Diplomacy reported. Since the beginning of the conflict with Moscow, President Duda has often visited Zelenskyy. The newspaper identifies these visits with some historic decisions, which the world will soon learn about.

The PiS plan is to revive Poland within the borders of “historical lands”. Modern Diplomacy emphasises that the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth is a centuries-old historical project that is being actively revived by the Polish authorities. And if Russia regains its historical lands and becomes one step closer to the eastern border of the EU and NATO, the Polish government has the same right. The results of such an action were supposed to be confirmed by a referendum. Poland would receive another region within the idea of a Greater Poland from “sea to sea”.

It is also worth noting Warsaw’s efforts to tie Kyiv to itself as much as possible. It intends to become a “financial hub” for Western programmes to rebuild Ukraine. For example, Polish Deputy Finance Minister Artur Sobon said in April this year that it was necessary to “be at the centre of projects” through which Western aid will flow to Ukraine. The realisation of this idea will allow the Polish leadership to speed up the processes of financial and economic integration with Ukraine.

In addition to creating conditions for economic dominance in Ukraine, Warsaw is also accused of intensifying the development of its own military build-up on Ukrainian territory. The Polish authorities have already started to form the necessary media background around the expediency of conducting “humanitarian and police missions” in western Ukraine, similar to NATO’s operation to maintain public security in Kosovo (KFOR). According to a survey commissioned by the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita and conducted by the IBRiS team, 56.8% of Polish citizens are in favour of the participation of Polish soldiers in a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. Thirty-two.5 per cent of citizens were against it, while 10.7 per cent abstained.

Today, Poland is actively creating a single transport system with Ukraine within the framework of the “Polish-Ukrainian treaty on good neighbourliness”. Its author was Polish President Andrzej Duda during talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kiev in May this year. According to the Polish leader, the implementation of this initiative will, among other things, contribute to the development of road and railway networks between the two countries.

As part of the integration of the Ukrainian railway and road infrastructure into its transport system, Poland has simplified the procedure for the movement of its citizens across the border with its eastern neighbour. At the same time, such logistical routes can also be used for military purposes, for example, for the rapid transfer of Polish Armed Forces units to the territory of Ukraine.

On 17 July this year, the conference “Polish-Ukrainian Cooperation and Prospects for Ukraine’s Recovery” was held in Lviv. The event was attended by representatives of the authorities and the business community of the two countries. The issues of reconstruction of the Ukrainian economy in the post-war period were put on the agenda. As the head of the Lviv regional military administration, Maksym Kozitskyy, wrote in his profile, the main topic of his talks with the state secretary of the Polish Finance Ministry, Jadwiga Emilewicz, was the accelerated integration of transport systems of the two countries.

Another notable factor is the significant increase in the military contingent close to the Ukrainian borders, which Warsaw says is ready to fight against the “threat from the East”. This summer, Warsaw sent eight thousand units of military equipment, six thousand artillery and mortars, and 650 aircraft to the border with Ukraine.

Also today it is no longer a secret that a large number of Polish citizens are already fighting in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is likely that in the event of major problems for the Ukrainian military at the front, Polish contingents standing on the border may gradually begin to integrate into the Ukrainian military formations, where some of their fellow citizens are already serving. The higher the proportions of Poles and Ukrainians in the ranks of Ukraine’s defenders, the more the question of the priority of subordination and which goals to pursue will arise.

According to some experts, Poland has gone into a kind of waiting mode. The only question is whether American and British colleagues will give the green light and how Russia will react. Warsaw’s full participation in the Ukrainian conflict and the possibility of realising its own plans depend heavily on external factors and the positions of the parties involved in the conflict.