Many people who are on the right side of the multi-polarity debate are worried about Trump’s relationship to many countries and global issues.
With that in mind, here is your Pessimists Guide to Donald Trump.
Right now China holds the American economy by a vice for two reasons: 1. The American market place is heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing of Chinese products and products owned by American and European companies. 2. American and Chinese currencies are inter-dependent.
Because of this, no amount of rhetoric can fundamentally change the fact that China and America will not go to war whether a hot war or a trade war. Both countries need each other, at least for now.
What is at stake is the nature of business relations between the two countries. America has allowed herself to be at the receiving end of poor deals, and China like any other economic-superpower with wise political leaders, has taken advantage of that.
Trump has articulated this sentiment time and time again when praising shrewd Chinese business practices whilst insulting American negotiators.
Donald Trump’s appointment of Terry Branstad as US Ambassador to China, a personal friend of President Xi Jinping, sends a clear message: the US will communicate with China in a friendly, familiar voice.
Trump’s words about the One China Policy being up for negotiation is most likely rhetoric to be used as leverage in future negotiations.
Neither Beijing nor Taipei actually want conflict, and this becomes increasingly true with every passing year.
Military parades and other build-ups are nothing but the visual analogue of Trump’s ‘up for negotiation’ rhetoric.
Because Chinese Taipei’s rulers separated from the mainland during a civil war, one cannot compare its status with those of formerly foreign controlled parts of China, such as Hong Kong and Macau. In this sense, a global two-China policy may become the reality over the next decades. In the Middle East such a concept is called a ‘two-state solution’.
Crucially I do not think Trump will use the South China Sea territorial disputes as leverage in negotiations. I think he’ll wisely stick to dollars and cents and leave the South China Sea issues to be negotiated by the effected parties. So far they’ve done a better job last year than in all previous years.
The ace in the deck of cards when it comes to US-Chinese relations is Jack Ma. The Alibaba founder has promised to create one million jobs in America. He also said that if America didn’t waste so much money on wars and the tools of war, it could have focused more on internal job creation and economic growth.
Ma talks like Trump and I believe that Ma could well exercise an un-official or semi-official role as China’s trade emissary to America.
China and America both talk tough, but I believe cooperation is on the horizon, far more so than under previous US administrations.
Donald Trump has made it clear that he’s no great fan of The Islamic Republic, but name me one US President who was? Many worry about the possibility of the US instigating a regime change war on Iran, but even if the more hawkish people surrounding Trump wanted to do so, it is incredibly unlikely that such a thing would happen.
If George W. Bush and Barack Obama, the twin-emperors of regime change, didn’t touch Iran, what makes one think that Captain American First would do so?
If America made war upon Iran, because of Iran’s deep involvement in Shi’a regions of Iraq and elsewhere in the Shi’a Arab world, it would be a massive regional war involving many Arab states and foreign irregulars in addition to Iran’s formidable armed forces.
There is simply no will to do this. Many in America might even be secretly embarrassed that in spite of America’s technologically sophisticated military apparatus, the likelihood is that any war on Iran is a war that America would lose, and lose badly.
Like with China, Trump is more critical of Obama’s poor negotiating skills than he is with the Iran deal itself.
The best thing for both America and Iran is to ignore each other whenever possible.
Unlike with China and the US who are interdependent in many ways, Iran and America do not need each other for anything and this is frankly a positive fact.
Donald Trump has put reconciliation with Russia at the top of his foreign relations agenda.
In his inaugural speech when he spoke of uniting the civilised world in a fight to eliminate radical Islamic terrorism, cooperation with Russia in this area was the clear inference. I believe that Trump will work hard to make this flagship policy happen.
Whatever counter-productive soundbites Trump or his associates give for internal MSM consumption, is ultimately meaningless.
For all of Obama’s provocation against Russia, his administration did not do anything to hinder Russia’s progress. Russia grew far stronger under Obama than many could have imagined.
Russia is unquestionably a geo-political superpower once again and one whose abilities to moderate global conflicts is respected above all other powers.
The Syrian conflict will be managed by Russia, Iran and Turkey, so long as the latter remains cooperative.
Obama conceded defeat over Syria in all but name and Trump will likely go along with Russia both to save face and also because I believe he genuinely understands that Assad is not a threat to anyone, whilst radical Islamic terrorism is a treat to everyone (except Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the Clinton Foundation).
One must hope that Trump will pull the plug on the American cash flow/life support system to the fascist regime in Kiev. Even if he does so purely for financial rather than moral reasons, the effect will be the same.
If this happens, the independence of the Donbass republics will be assured, and it will then be Russia’s duty to recognise them, embrace them, aid them and hopefully ultimately welcome them to the Russian Federation. Anything less would be a grave injustice, especially since under Trump one couldn’t blame America for Russian reticence to bring Donbass back home.
Donald Trump has not held back in his feelings of contempt for the dying liberal elite in Europe. He was openly critical of Angela Merkel just before his inauguration and has embraced Nigel Farage more than anyone from the corrupt British elite. The fact that Marine Le Pen was pictured in Trump tower a week before the inauguration also sends a clear message.
The message is this: if European states want to be friends with America and trade with America, terrific. But don’t expect a Trump White House to even pay lip service to the failed European project.
The EU may continue to be a voice in the global wilderness clinging on to outdated liberal ‘values’, but the peoples of Europe are getting fed up with all this, and if anything Donald Trump will speak in their favour.
The Deep State
I believe that many in the Deep State will see that their time has come. Trump is a single minded individual and I do not believe he will be led by the tail.
The open war with the CIA may be a protracted and ugly one, but I predict a Trump victory.
I believe that some measure of democracy will be restored even if it takes years. So long as Trump counters Deep State propaganda with Twitter, the people may finally wake up to what has gone on for decades.
Civil Strife in America
Donald Trump has always been an outspoken figure but he has also been ‘the People’s millionaire’. Far from a reclusive Rockefeller style individual, Donald Trump has embraced popular culture until the point that he became popular culture. He has conducted business and has maintained good personal relations with individuals of all racial, national and religious backgrounds.
It was the fake stream media that portrayed Trump as some sort of bigot when he never has been one and is not now. Hopefully through the power of social media people will see that Trump truly wants America to be united. Setting fire to the identity politics of the Democratic Party would be a good way to start.
So there you have it. Your handy guide to becoming a Trump optimist. He won’t be perfect, but he will be better than almost anything which care before him since at least 1945.
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Duran.