Next French President will likely be Le Pen.

Eric Zuesse

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“Don’t Believe The Pollsters” – Macron Tells Supporters He Could Still Lose French Election To The “Far Right”

Many untrained political observers probably assumed that the outbreak of war in Ukraine probably bolstered French President Emmanuel Macron’s odds of securing a second term during the French presidential election this month. But the truth is the race is much closer than it might appear.

https://archive.ph/YHTQR

3 April 2022 (First-round vote will be on April 10th; second on April 24th)

“Don’t Believe The Pollsters” – Macron Tells Supporters He Could Still Lose French Election To The “Far Right”

Macron 26%

Le Pen 21%

Melenchon 15.5%

Zemmour 11%

Pecresse 9.5%

Jadot 6%

Likeliest to switch: Pecresse (to Macron)

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Projected 2nd round: 53% Macron, 47% Le Pen. But from what I’ve read, most of the Zemmour votes will switch to Le Pen in the second round. Some of Melenchon’s would. Some of Pecresse’s would. If all that happens, then Le Pen would probably win. Therefore, if I had to bet, I’d bet against the current (as-of April 3rd: 85% Macron, 15% Le Pen) odds, on Le Pen to be the next French President. (Also: this graph — which shows that Macron’s support rose sharply at the Feb. 24th invasion of Ukraine and has been sinking from then on, whereas Le Pen’s has continued her slight rise — leads me to believe that Macron’s support is declining, while Le Pen’s is not. This likewise suggests to me that Le Pen will win.)

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