Middle East security alliances include Russia and China as a result of Trump’s war

Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator

Journalist Steven Sahiounie interviewed Dr. Nesma Abdel Nabi Abdel Aziz, Professor of Iranian Studies at Beni Suef University, and Researcher at the Iranian Studies Unit, Center for Political and Strategic Studies.

1. Steven Sahiounie (SS): A new round of political, military, and economic confrontation has emerged between Tehran and Washington, and both sides appear unwilling to de-escalate. In your opinion, is the region at risk of remaining trapped in a cycle of violence, and what are the possible ways to end this tension?

Dr. Nesma Abdel Nabi Abdel Aziz (NANAA): The region is undoubtedly facing a serious danger as military and political escalation between the United States and Iran continues. After more than ten days of military exchanges, including reported U.S. strikes targeting Iran’s southern coast and areas surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, Washington appears to have adopted a two-pronged strategy.

First, it seeks to pursue a strategy of continuous military attrition aimed at weakening Iran’s military capabilities. This includes reducing Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz by targeting missile systems, radar installations, and launch platforms, ultimately enabling the United States to establish greater control over the strategic waterway.

Second, it appears to be implementing a policy of isolation by targeting bridges and infrastructure to cut the Strait of Hormuz off from military and missile reinforcements, paving the way for tighter American control.

As a result, the region faces the risk of a catastrophic escalation, with ongoing reciprocal attacks potentially spiraling into a broader regional war that could erupt at any moment. The most effective path toward reducing tensions is through renewed international mediation and a return to the negotiating table.

 

2. SS: The Islamic Republic of Iran has suffered significant political, economic, military, and security losses. In your view, is Tehran capable of confronting the United States and its Arab allies for a prolonged period, especially given the collapse of its national currency?

NANAA: Iran is experiencing an extremely severe economic crisis, accompanied by substantial political, military, and economic losses. Inflation has reportedly reached 88.6%, while food prices have risen by approximately 138.8%. These figures illustrate the depth of the economic difficulties facing the country and explain Tehran’s continued demands for the lifting of sanctions and the release of approximately $120 billion in frozen assets.

Despite these challenges, Iran continues to rely on what is often referred to as its “shadow economy,” which is estimated to account for more than half of the country’s gross domestic product. This informal economy is reportedly managed through a complex network of military and religious institutions, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as well as oil “shadow fleets.” It seeks to circumvent sanctions through cryptocurrencies, front companies, and alternative shipping networks. While this weakens the formal economy, it also provides Iran with additional resilience, enabling it to withstand U.S. pressure for a longer period.

 

3. SS: Pakistan attempted to mediate between Washington and Tehran by hosting talks between the two sides, but these efforts have so far failed. Why do you believe the Pakistani initiative was unsuccessful, and who is capable of bringing the two sides closer together and ending the conflict?

NANAA: Pakistan’s mediation efforts failed to produce even a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran. However, this failure should not be attributed to shortcomings on Pakistan’s part, but rather to the profound differences and longstanding disputes separating the two countries.

The widening gap between Washington and Tehran, combined with more than four decades of accumulated mistrust, has made progress extremely difficult. At present, there is little optimism regarding a return to negotiations.

Ultimately, economic interests may prove to be the only factor capable of narrowing the differences between the two sides, particularly given the dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz and influence over regional maritime navigation. If both parties were able to reach an arrangement that provided mutual economic benefits—such as U.S. President Donald Trump’s reported proposal that Iran receive a 20% share of revenues generated through transit or logistical service fees in the Strait—this could gradually open the door to compromises on broader issues.

 

4. SS: Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are both approaching critical elections. Trump faces midterm congressional elections, while Netanyahu faces parliamentary elections that could ultimately lead to his removal from office and legal proceedings. Do you believe both leaders can continue the war against Iran despite domestic and international pressure, and what are they relying on?

NANAA: Although both Trump and Netanyahu have repeatedly stated that they are prepared to prolong the conflict and continue military operations against Iran, the reality is considerably more complicated.

Both leaders face significant domestic and international pressures. Regarding Trump, congressional debates have at times sought to limit his authority to launch further military operations, although subsequent developments in the U.S. Senate restored greater executive flexibility.

At the same time, the financial burden of maintaining large-scale U.S. military deployments in the Middle East has reportedly exceeded $1.5 billion, placing substantial pressure on the Pentagon, which has sought additional funding from the U.S. Treasury. These economic and political constraints could ultimately influence Washington’s strategic decisions.

5. SS: U.S. military bases in the Gulf have reportedly come under heavy attacks and suffered significant losses. What do you believe is the future of these bases, particularly if they are unable to protect themselves or their host countries?

NANAA: The attacks and losses sustained by U.S. military bases in the Gulf may prompt Gulf states to reconsider their military strategies. This could signal a gradual weakening of the American security umbrella; as regional governments recognize that the United States may no longer be able to guarantee their security to the same extent as before.

As a result, Gulf countries may increasingly diversify their strategic partnerships rather than relying primarily on Washington. This could encourage the development of a regional Arab security framework while simultaneously expanding Russian and Chinese influence in the Middle East as alternative major powers. Consequently, the conflict has the potential to reshape the region’s strategic alliances.

 

6. SS: Iran and its allies have threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait alongside the Strait of Hormuz. If the Houthis become directly involved in the conflict, does this suggest that the escalation will continue and expand?

NANAA: The Houthis’ control over areas surrounding the Bab el-Mandeb Strait represents one of Iran’s most significant strategic pressure tools in the Middle East. Tehran appears determined to make effective use of its regional allies while pursuing a calculated and gradual escalation strategy.

The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has already affected maritime traffic. Should the Houthis also contribute to closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, international shipping across two of the world’s most critical waterways could be severely disrupted. Such a scenario would likely trigger an unprecedented surge in global oil and energy prices, increased market volatility, and major disruptions to international trade.

In conclusion, Iran appears to be attempting to leverage its influence over key maritime chokepoints to secure political, economic, military, and geopolitical advantages, while challenging established international maritime norms, including the principles reflected in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist.