On Monday, the Russian foreign ministry squarely denied the allegations of Russian interference in Germany’s electoral campaign in anticipation of Bundestag elections in autumn 2017. The elections will decide if Angela Merkel, who had been reelected for the ninth time in a row as the head of her Christian-Democratic Union, will remain the chancellor of Germany for the next few years.
The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s European Department, Sergei Nechayev, made the following statement:
“Russia’s president Vladimir Putin said not once, but many times that we do not interfere into the affairs of other states. It is the German people that decides. May be, someone likes to view us as all-powerful hackers, but this hackneyed story, in my view, is losing the capacity to entertain even the precious few people it did make interested.”
However, the version of “Russian influence” as a likely explanation for Merkel’s possible future defeat at the autumn elections has been circulating for quite a few weeks now. Chancellor Merkel herself made some dubious comments on the matter. In the wake of Donald Trump victory on 8th November 2016 in the US Presidential election she made the following comment:
“We are already now having to deal with information out of Russia or with Internet attacks that are of Russian origin. There are also a lot of news from Russia, which sow false information.”
Since then, two heads of German secret services made statements accusing Russia of meddling in the German elections, with direct threats voiced against RT and Sputnik, two of Russia’s international media organisations.
The heads of the BND and the Federal Office for the Defence of the Constitution, two of Germany’s strongest special services, in many ways echoed the recent accusations by the CIA against the Russian “hackers” who supposedly tipped the balance at the US election in Donald Trump’s favour.
Meanwhile, the pro-Atlanticist European elite is investing a lot into Merkel’s victory in Germany’s elections, which are due to take place in autumn 2017, since her victory is seen as a crucial element in future confrontation with Russia.
Javier Solana, NATO’s ex-Secretary General, said in his recent interview to a Russian TV-channel Rossiya 24:
“Trump is not good for the US, he is not good for the world… and he is not good for almost anything. I think Merkel should take his place.”
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Solana is not alone in that opinion. President of the European Council Donald Tusk, a representative of Poland, echoed Solana in his comments published by the EU Observer:
“It will be harder to keep the West united against Russia with Donald Trump in the White House.”
In this situation, in Tusk’s opinion, the role of Merkel as the key element in the European solidarity against Russia becomes even more important.
The Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczikowski, whose Law and Justice party is seen as an opponent of Tusk inside Poland, said in Monday’s interview that “Poland sees no alternative to Merkel” at the helm of Europe.
The significance of Solana’s and Tusk’s statements is hard to understate. They voiced two trends in EU foreign policy for the post-Obama period: 1) The EU elites do not see Trump as a reliable partner in their foreign policy on Russia; and 2) They are ready to see Merkel replace Trump as the leader of the Western Front against Russia.
Trump has just nominated Rex Tillerson, CEO of Exxon Mobile, as Secretary of State.
Tillerson had friendly contacts with Russia’s leaders years ago, and this “worries” not just the American elite alone. The EU’s bigwigs also view the mere possibility of someone not hostile to Russia becoming the head of American diplomacy as a threat to themselves.
Despite the multi-billion losses for the European national economies, the EU’s establishment certainly wants to continue its economic war on Russia. It will continue to cover it up with Russia’s ‘failure to comply with the Minsk accord’, a document where Russia is mentioned zero times.
Apart from that, NATO is not willing to reduce military tensions with Russia. On the contrary, NATO is currently doubling down on the war games near the Russian borders with additional troops being sent to the Baltic states and Poland.
Meanwhile the anti-Russian hysteria propelled by government officials and mainstream media is skyrocketing in Germany.
One incident in Germany with even a distant linkage to notorious Russian hackers can trigger a diplomatic war.
One incident at Russia’s border with, say, Lithuania, where hundreds of German troops are being stationed, – one such incident might be enough to ignite an all-out war against Russia.
Russia is perceived by the EU establishment as a clear threat to their globalist agenda. By contrast, to the EU’s disappointment, by his plans to appoint Tillerson Trump has made clear his intention to do business with Russia instead of fighting that country.
The EU establishment sees yet another threat to its anti-Russian agenda in the much touted European democracy: France, Italy and the Netherlands may soon elect leaders who will want to restore a decent level of dialogue with Russia.
Feeling abandoned by the US, the anti-Russian elite of the European Union is now looking for a substitute for Trump to lead the West’s confrontation with Russia and by default Angela Merkel is their top candidate for the role.
However, for Merkel to be able to do the job, the ruling CDU/CSU coalition needs to win the German parliamentary election next year.
At this stage, this still seems feasible. According to recent polls, the CDU/CSU coalition has 31.5% of popular support, SPD 22%, and AfD (Alternative for Germany) has 15%.
The AfD overtly opposes the government’s policies, especially those concerning refugees and Russia, and is gaining popular support.
However, the dissatisfaction of the population may still not be enough to win the election.
Most likely we will see the pro-Merkel wing of Germany’s political class, as well as the mainstream media, silencing the opposition voices by declaring them not just “Islamophobes” or “populists”, but also ‘Kremlin agents’.
Most certainly they will also double down on accusing AfD of fascism.
While these tactics did not work with Brexit and in the US presidential election, they might be more successful in Germany, where for obvious historical reasons the topic of fascism has another dimension.
With all this said, there is still a chance for the tables to turn. The year 2016 has already provided brilliant examples of surprising outcomes which hardly anyone had believed possible.