Lebanon: A Truce with Glass Legs

The agreed ceasefire of November 27 between Hezbollah and Israel on the one hand highlights the fatigue in the ranks of both belligerents, on the other hand it declares the failure of Israel on the ground in southern Lebanon and the inadequate air defense of Hezbollah. In addition, each side has its own particular reasons for accepting the ceasefire.

Hezbollah has defeated Israel on the ground, completely achieving its goal of pinning Israeli forces to their original positions in the cross-border area. The Shiite organization has kept its defense positions intact, maintaining control of all border villages and towns centered on Hiam. In two months, Hezbollah destroyed sixty Israeli Merkava tanks, ten bulldozers and twenty unmanned aerial vehicles worth several million dollars. At the same time, from the air, despite having a significant problem in its air defense against the Israeli air force, it has succeeded in stabilizing its missile capability with rockets, ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles in two-thirds of the territory controlled by Tel Aviv. All of this constitutes a significant and unprecedented military progress and success for Hezbollah against Israel.

For its part, Israel agreed to the ceasefire for three reasons: a) it completely failed in its attempted ground invasion, b) there is fatigue in the ranks of the Israeli army, and c) there is a shortage of military equipment. By involving the Lebanese army as an intermediary force in the cross-border area, Israel seeks to create the conditions for civil conflict in Lebanon.

The prospect of converting the ceasefire into an armistice is small if there is no immediate ceasefire on the Gaza front. At the same time, the ceasefire is precarious and can be terminated at any time because there is no reliable intermediary monitoring force. Israel as a belligerent power and the weak official Lebanese army is not a reliable actor.

One of the main conclusions drawn from the two-month war is that Israel’s spearhead, its air force, has been the one that has kept the balance against Hezbollah (although killing mostly civilians and destroying homes, which constitutes a war crime), which lacks a substantial air defense infrastructure against Israel’s warplanes. If Hezbollah had had a stronger air defense, then the war would have already ended with Hezbollah’s victory, at least in terms of the use of conventional weapons.