Iraqi Parliamentary elections see high voter turnout and new dynamics

Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator

On November 11, tens of thousands of Iraqi voters took to the polls to elect a new parliament, marking the country’s sixth legislative election since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled the regime of late president Saddam Hussein.

More than 20 million Iraqis were eligible to cast their ballots to choose 329 members of parliament, with 46 seats allocated to the Kurdistan Region, including five reserved for minority communities.

According to the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC), voter turnout exceeded 55% of registered voters — a figure described by observers as a positive sign of renewed public engagement.

A total of 7,743 candidates competed across multiple coalitions and alliances, with nearly one-third being women. The Iraqi constitution mandates that no less than 25% of parliamentary seats be held by women.

In addition, 75 independent candidates ran in the election, marking a modest but symbolically important participation outside Iraq’s dominant political blocs.

Polling took place in 8,703 voting centers and 39,285 polling stations spread across the country’s 18 provinces.

25 international and domestic monitoring organizations observed the voting process to ensure transparency and credibility.

Preliminary results are expected within 24 hours of the polls closing. Analysts predict that the Reconstruction and Development Coalition, led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, will perform strongly — though this does not necessarily guarantee his return to office.

Voters in general are demanding an improved economic situation, and especially seeking an increase in jobs and income.

However, in Sadr City, a stronghold of the influential cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, many voters stayed home in obedience to his call for a boycott of what he described as a “corrupt process.”

Al-Sadr’s movement had won the largest number of seats in the 2021 election (73 seats) but withdrew from parliament after disputes with the Coordination Framework, a coalition of Iran-aligned Shiite parties. The resulting political stalemate led to months of unrest and deadly clashes.

Iraq’s political scene remains dominated by Shiite factions, many of which maintain close ties to Iran.

The elections are a prelude to the selection of a new president — a largely ceremonial post traditionally reserved for Kurds — and the prime minister, who holds executive authority.

Both appointments typically require months of negotiation and political compromise.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani rose to power in 2022 after more than a year of political paralysis caused by disputes between Sadr’s movement and the Coordination Framework. His government has been credited with maintaining Iraq’s relative stability amid heightened regional tensions.

While Shiite parties ran separately this year, they are expected to reunite under a single bloc after the vote to form the largest parliamentary coalition.

Among Sunni parties, former Speaker of Parliament Mohammed al-Halbousi is expected to make notable gains.

In Kurdistan, competition remains fierce between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) — a rivalry that continues to shape Kurdish politics.

Iraq’s role as a balancing actor between Tehran and Washington has grown increasingly important amid the shifting regional landscape since the outbreak of the Gaza war in 2023.

Despite regional turmoil, Iraq has enjoyed relative calm, even as Iran-backed militias have launched drone and rocket attacks on U.S. positions in Iraq and Syria. In response, Washington has targeted several of these groups within Iraqi territory.

The United States continues to press Baghdad to disarm non-state militias, a demand that remains one of the most sensitive issues between the two governments.

U.S. Special Envoy to Iraq Mark Savaiya, under President Donald Trump, reiterated Washington’s opposition to the presence of armed groups operating outside state control, emphasizing that “all weapons — especially those of Iran’s proxies — must be under the authority of the legitimate Iraqi government.”

The Iraqi government welcomed the remarks, calling them “an accurate understanding of Iraq’s internal dynamics and sovereignty.”

Early election results revealed that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s “Reconstruction and Development Coalition” took the lead in Baghdad, securing 15 of the city’s 71 seats, followed by Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law Coalition with 11 seats.

Other notable results in Baghdad included:

“Taqaddum” (Progress) led by Mohammed al-Halbousi: 9 seats

“Sadiqoon” (Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq): 5 seats

“National State Forces” led by Ammar al-Hakim: 5 seats

“Badr Organization” led by Hadi al-Amiri: 4 seats

“Al-Asas” Alliance: 4 seats

“Azm” Coalition: 4 seats

“Siyada” (Sovereignty): 4 seats

“National Resolution” led by Defense Minister Thabit al-Abbasi: 3 seats

“Huquq” (Hezbollah Iraq-affiliated bloc): 1 seat

Christian minority list: 1 seat

The remaining seven seats were distributed among smaller parties and independent candidates.

A notable upset occurred when Labor and Social Affairs Minister Ahmed al-Asadi, a prominent figure in Sudani’s coalition, failed to retain his seat after securing only 3,500 votes — far below the 20,000-vote threshold estimated necessary to win a seat In Baghdad.

In Basra, which holds 25 parliamentary seats, Asaad al-Eidani’s “Tasmeem” coalition led the race with 95,000 votes, winning six seats.

“Sadikoon” followed closely with five seats, while Sudani’s coalition took three. Other winners included the State of Law Coalition (4 seats) and the Badr Organization (2 seats).

In Babil Province (17 seats), Sudani’s coalition again led with three seats, while in Diyala (14 seats), the Badr Organization secured three seats, followed by several smaller alliances each winning one seat.

According to electoral sources, the three leading blocs nationwide are:

1. Reconstruction and Development (Sudani)

2. State of Law (Maliki)

3. Taqaddum (Halbousi)

The close results suggest no single coalition will achieve an outright majority, paving the way for intense post-election negotiations to form the next government.

Prime Minister Sudani hailed the high voter turnout as a “new success in Iraq’s democratic journey.”

“This broad participation,” he said in a statement, “reflects our citizens’ renewed confidence in the electoral process — a goal my government has worked tirelessly to achieve.”

A New Political Chapter

Analysts believe the preliminary results point to a reshaped political map and a potentially more balanced parliament, with gains for moderate and civilian forces over traditional parties.

Yet, the road to forming a new government is expected to be long and complex, involving multiple alliances and power-sharing negotiations among Iraq’s competing blocs.

As Iraq continues to navigate regional pressures and domestic reform challenges, the 2025 parliamentary elections may mark the beginning of a new, cautiously optimistic phase in its evolving democratic experiment.

Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist.