INTERMARIUM “George Friedman: This is the intermarium from the Black Sea to the Baltic, that Pilsudski dreamed of, this is the solution for the United States.” importance of Odessa

30:41

“Interviewer:Your Odessa strategy…?

Scott Ritter: Well … a lot has happened since then because when I first articulated, first of all we didn’t have Putin’s address. You know we live in a new world, we live in a different world, things have advanced. I hyphen that argument off a comment Putin made to a reporter in the summer. Remember I talked about the Hungarian reporter. So I think we have to acknowledge that between that time and now things have changed and I’ll give you an example of how things have changed. When Putin made that comment we now know that Putin was still concerned about the collapsing Russian economy. It wasn’t until recently Putin was able to say with confidence that the Russian economy wouldn’t contract 25 percent. Who now could say the Russian economy is confidentiality protected. Two percent and is going to grow and expand in the coming future. So he feels a lot better today than he did in that state. So sometimes when you talk about the Odessa pause, The Odessa option those pauses and those options are a product of the reality, the confidence that you have. So there’s that too the situation in Moldova has changed dramatically since then. There’s a greater threat to Transisteria so a Odessa pause may not be to the benefit of Russia as it was. Or does it pause may actually serve to mobilise rapidly, mobilise a Transnistria option for the other side. So I still believe that Russia could do this…

Russian Victory is the removal of Zelinski, I mean the end game is Zelinski gone. So it’s not even so much that we’ve got to take Odessa”

Aaron Maté on Twitter: “Friedman: “For the United States, the primordial fear is … German technology and German capital, Russian natural resources and Russian manpower as the only combination that has for centuries scared the hell out of the United States.” / Twitter”

Friedman: “For the United States, the primordial fear is … German technology and German capital, Russian natural resources and Russian manpower as the only combination that has for centuries scared the hell out of the United States.”

“George Friedman: This is the intermarium from the Black Sea to the Baltic that Pilsudski dreamed of, this is the solution for the United States.”. This is not about some great Poland, so about Poland taking more land for themselves. Just like Kiev:

“Col. Macgregor: Kiev was historically viewed as an outpost of Western civilization in Eastern Europe. Beyond Kiev were Tatars, Mongols and Russians, nothing else. As a result Western Ukraine is fundamentally different culturally, linguistically and in other ways, because of a long term Polish, Lithuanian influence.”

Similar situation exist with Minsk. Minsk because of Polish and Lithuanian influence is also to a lesser extent at  end of civilization. It is after all Bialorus is Bialo(rus).  Eastern European countries like Bialorus and Eastern Ukraine were closely connected to Russia. That’s why you got Nuclear weapons moving to Bialorus because Minsk is in the same situation like Kiev and they know it. That’s why you got Russification of Bialorus. Unlike the West they don’t do it by force. Bialorus is close to Russia so just promoting speaking Russian is enough while in Ukraine the West forbids the Russian language and have forced people to use Ukrainian.

What is the Intermarium that Pilsudski dreamed of? Answer is “from the Black Sea to the Baltic” its single state, a Polish commonwealth, a land mass from the Baltic to the Black Sea separating Europe and Asia, controlling the land mass from the Baltic to Black Seas gives you control over the whole land corridor between Europe and Asia which includes Russia. One state controlling land trade Between Europe and Asia controls trade with Russia. That’s why Odessa is so important. Poland still can control the land corridor between Asia and Europe with Romania. But the most optimal solution is for Poland to control West Ukraine including Odessa so to have a corridor to the Black Sea which makes it one state that controls land trade between Asia and Europe. That’s Pilsudski’s dream and that’s why the US helped him recrate Poland after over 100 years of it not existing. Poland’s Intermarium was supposed to be a land mass controlling land trade between Asia and Europe which helped the US make sure Russia and Germany won’t get too close and contest its superiority (at the time it was US and British superiority).

So if Putin really would want to try to contest the West, he will contest Odessa which the West will not allow because Odessa is required for the existence of a Polish Intermarium. But since he offered Poland splitting Ukraine it include Odessa because he is not stupid and he has to know about the Intermarium concept. He sees Polish anti-Russian propaganda but he knows in the end Poles are slavs and this propaganda is just to control a bewildered herd. Since when Marcon and France  represent Europe? What happened to Germany? Before when Europe was negotiating with China Merkel was leading? Like I said Germany was taking too much control over Europe that was the whole point, now you got France taking the lead. I suspect part of why the British left the EU was Germany’s control which is now gone and the British may want to come back to contest the leading role in the EU from France. Since Germany lost its leading role now there will be a fight for who will take their leading place.

Whole point of this was not winning against Russia. There was a chance for regime change in Russia but they are not stupid, they don’t take fights they don’t always win. They started a conflict, no matter which side wins, they win. So they would talk about regime change in Russia but they knew there were low chances for it. But even if that doesn’t work they still secure regime change in the EU. Germany because of this conflict, the sanctions and the narrative that Putin is bad will lose its economic leverage which constituted its political leverage in the EU. So either they conquer Russia through regime change or they remove their biggest competitor Germany which thanks to its cooperation with Russia was starting to threaten the US superiority. The rest of the EU went with it because Germany was taking too much control over the EU. The US would not be able to do it without approval of parts of the EU.

That is why I believe in the Odessa moment that Scott Ritter is talking about. Putin is not stupid he will not contest the West. Russian forces will stop at the Dnieper river and so will peacekeeping forces and Ukraine will be split. Putin will secure influence over Eastern Ukraine. Poland will secure control over Western Ukraine if it includes Odessa it will create an Intermarium so one state controlling land trade Between Asia (including Russia) and Europe. This plus US control over all the international seas and waters gives you lots of control, control is leverage and that’s the whole point. Just like Nord stream was created to remove leverage from Poland, Ukraine and Belarus so countries through which other pipelines went through. So we have the creation of Intermarium, a one state controlling land mass Between Europe and Asia creates huge leverage. Leverage which Germany didn’t want Poland to have. That’s why Poland did not accept splitting Ukraine when it was offered by Putin because Poland at that time was controlled by a German controlled puppet government which didn’t want Poland to have such leverage.

Welcome to the World of Leverages and Power Politics, in the world of Realistic Politics. Where Nord Stream was built to remove leverage from Eastern European countries. Where Germany’s control over cheap energy sources in the form of cheap gas from Russia gave them such big economic leverage over Europe which they converted into huge political leverage. It went to such a degree that when people were asking “What the EU will do” this question was often posed in the form of “What Germany will do”. They were holding such economic and political grip over the EU and that’s what Americans did not like.