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Egypt and Ethiopia on the brink of war

Ethiopia fills dam reservoir that could destroy agriculture in Egypt and Sudan

Submitted by InfoBrics, authored by Lucas Leiroz, research fellow in international law at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro…

The tension between Egypt and Ethiopia is worsening. Both countries are raising their regional rivalry and threatening the North African international security with the imminence of a new conflict. The cause of the tension is due to Ethiopia’s intentions to build a large hydroelectric dam on one of the tributaries of the River Nile, the so-called “Blue Nile”. The big problem around the issue is that several studies prove that the project would result in a series of devastating environmental effects for some nearby regions, mainly in Egypt and Sudan, where such consequences would annihilate all traditional farming systems.

Egyptian authorities are trying to prevent the project from advancing by legal and peaceful means. First, trilateral negotiations were established between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, with the aim of reaching an agreement of common interest. But the negotiations were unsuccessful and the authorities in Cairo and Addis Ababa, the main antagonists in the conflict, were unable to reach a compromise. The next step taken by the Egyptian government was to appeal to the United Nations with its demand that Ethiopia be coercively prevented from building the plant.

Despite Egypt’s efforts, the United Nations’ inertia prevented the conclusion of an international agreement on the subject. Last Tuesday, Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia again met to try to resolve the issue with a common agreement. Again, the attempt failed, and countries left the meeting with even more disagreements. As a result, Ethiopia went ahead with the project and has already started filling the dam’s reservoir. When this process is finished, traditional agriculture in Egypt and Sudan will be wiped out.

In fact, the Ethiopian project has come a long way. Since 2011, the country has been trying to build a dam to resolve its electricity issue. Currently, less than 45% of the Ethiopian population has access to electricity. The project, however, would not only solve the energy issue within the country, supplying the population entirely, but it would also allow the Ethiopian State to export surplus energy to other African countries, guaranteeing profits to the public coffers. All Ethiopia’s international claims, both regionally and globally, depend fundamentally on the triumph of the hydroelectric dam project, even becoming a matter of national pride. In short, the project is a fundamental part of the consolidation of Ethiopia as a sovereign national state in the contemporary world.

However, for countries neighboring Ethiopia, the issue is quite the opposite. What would be a pride for Ethiopians would be a real humiliation for Egyptians and Sudanese. In Egypt, about 90% of the population lives on the banks of the Nile, where fertile lands feed all traditional national agriculture, in a millenary structure of organization and production. The triumph of the Ethiopian project would automatically represent the destruction of the Egyptian State, which would have to deal with a major escalation of hunger and economic losses.

There is yet another risk that the Egyptian authorities must consider: the risk of instantaneous release of the waters. If this happens, water currents could destroy more than 70% of the entire Egyptian population, resulting in a genuine genocide. According to evaluations by Egyptian experts, the project has a series of technical inadequacies, which raises concerns about this risk.

We contemplate then the current weakness of the African system for resolving regional conflicts. Ethiopia and Egypt are members of the African Union, which, being an international organization committed to African integration, should be strong enough to resolve these regional issues, creating an alternative between National States and the global system. It is necessary to avoid as much as possible submitting such strictly regional issues to the Security Council, when smaller organizations could resolve these situations because this delay can be fatal for millions of people. The lack of integration between countries and a strong regional supranational power could lead to a new war or to the end of the Egyptian state.

Now, it may be too late for a UN or African Union statement. Ethiopia is already filling the reservoir and with that the dam’s activities begin. The impact on Egypt and Sudan will be inevitable and the responses will come soon. Sudan has been more patient and flexible than Egypt in relations with Ethiopia, but Cairo’s position is different. Visibly, Egypt is currently trying to resume a posture of strong geopolitical relevance in Africa, as we can see with the country’s important role in the Libyan civil war, aiming to guarantee its regional interests and to consolidate itself as a North African regional power. Certainly, therefore, Ethiopia will have to deal with aggressive responses.

Violent reactions are already inevitable, but a war is not. More than ever, international organizations must work together with the affected states and Ethiopia to reach a common agreement. If such an agreement is not possible, a gigantic conflict will break out in the region, and may even result in foreign military interventions.

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Brian Gray
Brian Gray
July 20, 2020

Scary… exactly who would be the foreign powers that might get dragged into this conflict and on which nation’s side? Is this dam project part of the BRI? As far as energy demand for Ethiopia maybe there should be an aggressive push to meet that demand with nuclear energy stategy.

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Brian Gray
July 20, 2020

None will be dragged in. Who in his right mind would go fighting in “shithole countries” of Africa? (Using Donald Trump’s apt terminology here).

Last edited 3 months ago by Olivia Kroth
Matthew Mekonnen
Matthew Mekonnen
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 20, 2020

“shithole” is your country , interfering in other countries affairs and enacting unilateral diktats that left major wars on its wake – recall Palestine , India- Pakistan border wars, India-China border wars, Sudan-Ethiopia border wars, Eritrea -Ethiopia border wars , Kenya -Somali border wars, South Africa, Zimbabwe land distribution conflicts ….you are the “shithole”

Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  Matthew Mekonnen
July 21, 2020

Well-said!

Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  Matthew Mekonnen
July 21, 2020

Well-said. Corporate capitalist shithole U$A lectures the world about human rights yet 40 million Americans live in poverty and are on food stamps which is (larger than the whole population of Venezuela)! 15 million American children reside in xtreme poverty, 28 million Americans live without health insurance, with widespread urban decay and yards filled with sewage and the most explosive and the deadliest coronavirus epidemic in the world. Moreover, the pro-ISIS, pro-Al-Qaeda, degenerate and turbulent U$A has rampant levels of crime, extreme violence, very high rate of suicides, has the largest prison population on earth and hundreds of thousands are… Read more »

Last edited 3 months ago by Theodros
Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Matthew Mekonnen
July 21, 2020

You do not know which country I live in and which is “my country”, Matthew Mekonnen; I was simply using a quote by Donald Trump but that does not automatically make the USA “my country”. God forbid! I would not like to live in that hellhole at all.

Theodros
Theodros
July 20, 2020

As experts stated many times over the past few years the effect of the follow of the Nile water from Ethiopia to Egypt will be no more than 0.6 percent maximum and that will do no harm to Egypt. What is worrying Egypt more is what might happen if drought strikes Ethiopia in the future and wants guarantees from Ethiopia concerning that kind of scenario and Ethiopia is hesitant to sign binding agreement with Egypt to safe guard its national interest and sovereignty. Egypt is putting pressure on Ethiopia using the Arab league, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and… Read more »

Last edited 3 months ago by Theodros
Smoking Eagle
Smoking Eagle
Reply to  Theodros
July 20, 2020

As I understand it, Egypt and the Sudan were asking that Ethiopia take 10 years to fill the dam so that they can adjust to a reduced water flow during that time. Ethiopia plans to fill the dam in only three years, which may have a devastating effect on two countries downstream that rely on the Nile for their drinking water and agricultural irrigation. Once the dam has been filled and is operational, the flow should remain consistent although, given Ethiopia’s hot climate and the huge water surface area of the dam, it will lose a lot of water to… Read more »

Matthew Mekonnen
Matthew Mekonnen
Reply to  Smoking Eagle
July 20, 2020

the Aswan lake should buffer shortcomings if and when it occurs. Are not all people equal and is not saving drought hit Ethiopians more human than loosing water to evaporation from the Aswan like that astronauts can see with bare eyes?

Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  Smoking Eagle
July 21, 2020

Ethiopia has the sovereign right to manage its own water resources for electricity or otherwise. Let arabs and their Western allies go to hell.

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Smoking Eagle
July 21, 2020

In Europe there are long rivers like the Rhine River or the Donau River, with several states taking part in these rivers. And yet there is no petty squabbling about who will do what with the river. They use common sense and decide together, what will be done, so no single state will have damage either by the Rhine river or the Donau River. This is what I call using intelligence for the common good. In Africa this is not possible. They squabble and screach like apes in the jungle, in those shithole countries of Africa.

Last edited 3 months ago by Olivia Kroth
Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 21, 2020

None sense!

Over 120 millions Europeans are dead, slaughtered a few decades ago during their savage first and second world wars and for NO reason at all. No that kind of mass slaughter of humans happened any where else in human history, mind you!

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 21, 2020

But this was not over questions how to use the Rhine River or the Donau River. This was an entirely different thing.

Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 21, 2020

Then over what did 120 million Europeans got savagely killed in two world wars a few decades ago? Basically over nothing!!! No savagery bigger than this exists anywhere else!!!

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 21, 2020

Is “Nonsense” your standard way of answering people here who have their own opinions? How utterly rude and uneducated you are, Theodros. Phui! Crawl back into the hole where you crept out from!

Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 21, 2020

Nonsense is your argument which is full of ignorance and racism. You are calling a whole race of people ‘shithole’ and you are complaining when I called that insult nonsense???

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 21, 2020

You are full of ignorance yourself, bloated up by Orthodox zealotism and fake concern for African countries, another one of those fake Greek Orthodox preachermen that we strongly dislike.

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 21, 2020

Theodros – the poor fool. Was he born that way, or did someone hit him on the head with a shovel?

Olivia Kroth
July 20, 2020

Will Africans and Middle Eastern Arabs ever be able to keep peace? Constantly fighting! Have they got nothing better to do? It is nerve racking for normal people!

Last edited 3 months ago by Olivia Kroth
Smoking Eagle
Smoking Eagle
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 20, 2020

Constantly being deliberately stirred up into fighting too. How much strife would there be now if it were not for the creation of Israhell and the west’s warmongering for control of oil reserves in countries such as Iraq, Iran, Syria, Yemen, Libya, and minerals and heroin in Afghanistan?

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Smoking Eagle
July 20, 2020

Nobody needs to jump on such provocations, Smoking Eagle. Only Africans and Arabs jump on the horse and gallop away. Iran is too big and sopisticated. Nobody is going to pick a fight with them. But the smaller ones are easy prey for western vultures.

Smoking Eagle
Smoking Eagle
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 21, 2020

It appears that Israhell and the US are intent upon stirring up trouble in Iran. http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/55374.htm

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Smoking Eagle
July 21, 2020

They might be “intent”, but not successful. Iran will not be lured into war.

Matthew Mekonnen
Matthew Mekonnen
July 20, 2020

Ethiopia should suffer recurring famine and hunger bouts and suffer the humiliation of becoming synonymy to hunger and famine…is the author’s verdict . Conveniently he left out the Aswan Dam , the biggest electric producing dam since 1950’s and Aswan Lake, the biggest man made lake/ reservoir in the world. Besides, Egypt had become drinking water exporter to Israel because Ethiopia contributed upward 90 % of the Nile flow selflessly. And, just because Ethiopia decided that the free flowing river should , at least turn electricity producing turbines on its ways, Egypt and Sudan will suddenly lose all agricultural means,… Read more »

Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  Matthew Mekonnen
July 21, 2020

The author has no idea of what he/she is talking about and is probably a hired hand for Egyptian propaganda. Go Ethiopia!

Last edited 3 months ago by Theodros
Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 21, 2020

That whole article is entirely superfluous. Let the shithole countries of Africa decide or not decide what they want or do not want, without bothering the rest of the world. Who cares, what Egypt and Eritrea do!

Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 21, 2020

You are misinformed and ignorant. You have to understand that Egyptians and other Arabs think they are superior to dark-skinned Africans and these same Arabs in North Africa don’t even consider themselves as Africans and call black Africans as ‘Abed’ or slave. In fact, there are open slave markets in Libya as we speak where Arab Libyans are selling dark-skinned Africans as slaves right now in 2020! That is why Egyptians want to dictate to black Ethiopians as to how they use their own water. Unfortunately the Egyptians have the support of the U$A, the EU, the Arab league and… Read more »

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 21, 2020

Speak for yourself, misinformed and ignorant Theodros. I do not want to “understand” anything you are blabbering here. I do want to be taught by you. I choose my teachers – if I need them – myself.

Last edited 3 months ago by Olivia Kroth
Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 21, 2020

You know or understand NOTHING about the struggle that exists between Arabs and Africans and in this case about Ethiopia and Egypt and you better refrain from talking stuff which you understand nothing about.

Last edited 3 months ago by Theodros
Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 21, 2020

But I do understand that you are a bloated up “Ochsenfrosch”, full of asinine self-righteousness, babbling away about “Africa”. Theodros, Godsent jackass? The new self-assigned Orthodox “Africa expert” on this board? Which hole did you crawl out from? And in which century?

Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 22, 2020

You keep saying Africans and Arabs keep fighting over rivers and yet you CAN’T prove a single war between Africans and Arabs fighting over rivers any time in history. This proves your deep, nonsensical ignorance!

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 21, 2020

Nonsensical Theodros nonsensing again. Nonsense off, idiot!

Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 21, 2020

You are full of ignorance and shit, not surprised at all here, nothing better would be expected from a shithole like you, coming from a shithole mafia state like the U$A! Go to hell!

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 21, 2020

Orthodox preacherman is spamming the board with his junk.

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 21, 2020

Theodros – a goofy gasbag from Greece? Maybe?

Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 22, 2020

As I said, you look like another Christ-hating, degenerate, pro-ISIS, Western, secularist faghead and I think it is a waste of time to debate with an uninformed and ethnocentric entity like you.

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 21, 2020

Theodros, God’s special gift for the Duran, another one of those phony Orthodox showoffs! Chattering windbag, blabbering bullshit (like brother Seraphim, the Godsent Archangel).

Last edited 3 months ago by Olivia Kroth
Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 22, 2020

Now you started to insult Orthodox saints?!

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 22, 2020

I wonder, how can one single tattling twat like “Theodros” produce so much bullshitting baloney? This must be a very special talent.

John Ellis
July 21, 2020

All of the sickening ads on this WEB page that almost make you vomit,
I wonder why the rich owners so oppose our working-class doing
nothing more than communicating?

Slavonac
Slavonac
July 21, 2020

This simply wreaks of hypocrisy from Egypt, it was ok for them to build the massive dam and lake to the detriment of life in general down south but it is now not ok for the south to do the same? How can this dam possibly have an effect on Egypt so far upstream?

John Ellis
July 21, 2020

If I should think that I deserve more, while others suffer want, than my mind exists in a make believe and non-existent world. Then my physical being cannot possibly have a purpose in life other than to seek all pleasure and avoid all pain.
On the other hand, if I clearly understand that I deserve nothing so long as others suffer want, than my life has purpose and I draw near to others in mutual affection and unified support.

John Ellis
July 21, 2020

Ethiopia has the most violent, invading and slaughtering
government in all of Africa, a very sad state of affairs.

Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  John Ellis
July 21, 2020

Nonsense!

Ethiopia is the pride of Black Africa, the honor of the black man every where, the only country in Africa that is uncolonized, is an ancient Orthodox Christian country that resisted and defeated the European and the Islamic colonizers for millennia. From Jamaica to South Africa to the US, you see black people everywhere waving the Ethiopian flag and Ethiopia remains the HQ of African Union to this day. Ethiopians are peaceful, conservative and brave people who won’t accept abuse from anyone. Long Live Ethiopia! Build the Dam Ethiopia and let the shithole haters go to hell!

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 21, 2020

“Nonsense”? Pot calling the kettle black. Theodros and his nonsensical views spamming this board. Another one of those fanatic Orthodox Christian zealots inundating the Duran. Phui!

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 21, 2020

Nonsensical Theodros nonsensing again! And don’t you dare giving John Ellis or anybody else here a minus, you fanatic Orthodox idiot, or we shall minus you until a hundred minusses minimum! What an axhole you are! Rude and uncivilized. Piss off!

Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 21, 2020

Go join ISIS, like your satanic, anti-Christ U$A!
You think you are a civilized person by calling Africans
shitholes?

Last edited 3 months ago by Theodros
Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 21, 2020

Theodros, Godsent jackass? Another one of those self-righteous Orthodox babblers, ignoramusses and spammers? There must be a nest somewhere ….

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 21, 2020

A nest full of inane village idiots, aka Orthodox spammers and blatherers.

Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 22, 2020

If you hate Christ and Orthodox Christians, then why not join ISIS/Al-Qaeda and serve them as an obedient s***slave? Your Hollywood masters do it all the time!

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 22, 2020

Orthodox loudmouth Theodros prattling rubbish and spreading tripe again. Without this blathering buffoon the world would not know how to dig out the potatoes. I wonder why the Orthodox Church produces so many halfwits. Does it happen through incest? Hm! Good question ….

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 22, 2020

This is why Greece is bankrupt, owing the EU billions of Euros. Because it is full of cackling clowns like this “Theodros”. A country of featherbrained fools on the hill, aptly managed and kept in ignorance by the Orthodox Church. LOL!

Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 22, 2020

Now, you are showing your genuine, godless (LGBTQ) colors! like i said before, go join your anti-Christ buddies like ISIS and AL-Qaeda and serve them as an obedient s***slave, like your fagheaded Western women do all the time!

Last edited 3 months ago by Theodros
Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 22, 2020

By repeating your piffling hogwash it will not get any better. And your silly youtubes do not help either. How did you escape the straight jacket? Prey tell.

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 22, 2020

Or did Theodros live in an Orthodox cloister and they kicked him out, because even his fellow monks could not support so much gabbling gibberish of one single fool in one single day?

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 22, 2020

Now the slabbering simpleton is running around leaving his hogwash on internet boards.

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 22, 2020

It does not take a psychiatrist to notice that the Orthodox zealot is mentally challenged.

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 22, 2020

A world without idiots would be lonely, especially without Orthodox idiots, because they are always good for a laugh.

Theodros
Theodros
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
July 22, 2020

‘World without Orthodox’. That is why Western, pro-ISIS Hollywoodized fags hate Russia and Orthodoxy and u are one them! Their motto is: hate Russia, hate Orthodoxy… Get lost. Join ISIS, your buddies in hate!

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 22, 2020

Theodros uses idiocy as a means of expression? Idiots write idiocy. It is in their nature.

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  Theodros
July 22, 2020

“Harebrain” is one of the terms, the mildest, which could be applied to the Orthodox crap talker Theodros.

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