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DEATHS IN ENGLAND & WALES 2019-20: Comparisons From February And April

Broadly speaking there are two views of the coronavirus pandemic: one is that this is the biggest threat to civilisation in a long time, one that is a lot more tangible than the nuclear annihilation with which we in the West were threatened during the Cold War. The other, extreme version, is that the whole thing is a gigantic hoax.

The governments of the world are caught between a rock and a hard place. If they assume the latter is closer to the truth and it turns out to be a rerun of 1348, we could see tens or even hundreds of millions of deaths, while if they assume the former and it turns out to be no more lethal than common or garden influenza, then literally billions of people will have experienced everything from inconvenience to bankruptcy and worse. Assuming the former isn’t a failsafe error but is by far the lesser of evils.

We have had many reports of identifiable people dying from the coronavirus, many of them quite young. Boris Johnson is 55, and is lucky to have survived the disease. Other, mostly younger people who were not so lucky include these NHS staff. Many famous people have also died, most of them not so young. These include American singer-songwriter John Prine, who was 73, and musician Adam Schlesinger, a relatively youthful 52. Younger people whose deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 are said largely to have had underlying health conditions. Let us though consider just two comparisons from UK statistics. The following estimates of deaths registered in England and Wales can be found on the British Government website:

week 6, 2019 – 11,660 deaths from all causes

week 7, 2019 – 11,824 deaths from all causes

week 6, 2020 – 10,986 deaths from all causes

week 7, 2020 – 10,944 deaths from all causes

week 11, 2019 – 10,567 deaths from all causes

week 12, 2019 – 10,402 deaths from all causes

week 11, 2020 – 11,019 deaths from all causes

week 12, 2020 – 10,645 deaths from all causes

While there were significantly more deaths in week 11 this year and a couple of hundred more for week 12, there have been fewer deaths overall. It remains to be seen if there would have been significantly more without the lockdown and social distancing, but who wants to find out?

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Tom Welsh
Tom Welsh
April 13, 2020

Congratulations on writing an article that sums up what everyone already knows, without adding a single iota (even of speculation) to it.

Robertx5
Robertx5
April 13, 2020

I accept that governments are caught between a rock and a hard place, but both opinions above were driven by speculation and nothing more. Governments however have data, and from the modelling provided by Imperial College (based on the latest inputs from countries further ahead in the virus cycle than the U.K.) they had a worst case scenario – Do nothing, 500,000 dead over 2 years but most occurring in the initial surge, or social distancing for everyone, 9,000 dead over 2 years. These figures need to be set against a normal death toll of 600,000 people in the U.K.… Read more »

Clarity
Clarity
April 13, 2020

The UK is still at the beginning of the curve. Deaths allocated to Corona did not exceed a total of 100 until March 18th. March 26th a daily death toll of 100 was reached, increasing ever since. March 28th the overall deaths breached 1000 for the first time. The curve got steeper. April 1st it was over 2300 in total, April 12th it had reached 10612. From April 1st to the 12th the total deaths allocated to Corona is 8823. Lots of month left, so we need to look at the total number of deaths for April (May, etc) and… Read more »

diana
diana
April 13, 2020

Governments are not caught between a rock and a hard place. They have received their instructions and woe betide them if they dare go against them. As to the number of deaths from coronavirus, how can they be counted when there isn’t a specific test? How about the baby that died supposedly from coronavirus in the US? Apparently the mother was so freaked out by the propaganda which made her think she had the virus that she went into labour weeks too early and the baby died. Another baby supposedly died of the virus in Connecticut (I think) and its… Read more »

ken
ken
Reply to  diana
April 14, 2020

You have a Most Intelligent way of summing this fiasco up…Thank You.

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