China’s trade with the US down as trade with Russia is up in 2023

By Rhod Mackenzie

The export of goods from China to the United States decreased by 16.4%, and its imports from there decreased by 6% according to data published by the General Customs Administration of the People’s Republic of China based on the results of the first three quarters of 2023. What is the explanation for the sharp drop in the trade volume and the possible impact of this trend on China’s trade turnover with Russia and other nations.

This represents a negative trend.
Trade between China and the United States declined by 14% YoY during the initial three-quarters of 2023. The General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China notified a trade value of £495.9 billion. Specifically, exports of Chinese goods to the United States dipped by 16.4%, to £372.2 billion, in contrast to the first nine months of 2022. The imports of goods from the United States also fell by 6% – to £123.7 billion. Let us recall that trade turnover rose by 0.6% and reached £759.427 billion at the end of 2022. The United States, together with the ASEAN countries and the EU, continues to be China’s leading trade partner.

In September, the trade between Russia and China amounted to $21.1 billion. Russia supplied goods worth $11.5 billion to China, while China supplied $9.6 billion worth of goods to the Russian Federation. Chinese statistics indicate that imports of energy resources increased significantly in September, which benefited Russian exporters of oil, petroleum products and coal. Thus, China’s buying of crude oil rose by almost 14%, imports of petroleum products surged by nearly 85%, and imports of coal increased by 27.5%.
In September, prices for Russian export oil reached their highest levels since the beginning of the year. According to the Ministry of Finance, the average price of Urals was $83.01 per barrel, which heightened the value of Russian energy exports to China.

However, the situation may be more challenging for metallurgists as China decreased its imports of copper by 5.8% and steel products by 28%. Among the noteworthy alterations in the structure of non-commodity trade, we observe that China lifted the prohibition on pork imports from Russia in September 2023, something that Russian pig producers have been trying to accomplish for approximately a decade.

After Western companies left Russia China is filling the void, noted by Olga Belenkaya, the head of macroeconomic analysis at Financial Group Finam.

This trend spans various products, yet it is most evident within the car market. The Federal Customs Service reports that the proportion of Chinese cars in total Russian car imports rose to 92% by the end of the first eight months in 2023. For comparison, the analyst provides an example wherein the percentage was at 70% by the end of the first half of 2023, while in 2021 it was only 10%.
Until 2022, the EU was Russia’s primary trading partner abroad. However, sanctions, the exit of European companies, plus the financial and logistics limitations have caused a significant decline in both exports and imports. Eurostat reports that from February 2022 to June 2023, EU exports to Russia diminished by 61%, and imports from Russia to the EU plummeted by 84% during that same period.

However, Olga Belenkaya has suggested that some European products continue to enter Russia through the parallel import system via friendly and neutral countries.

The situation will not be vacant.
A decline in trade between China and the United States will be advantageous for Russia. This trend is already apparent. According to the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China, amidst decreasing statistics for the US, the trade between Russia and China has grown.
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China’s trade with the US down as trade with Russia is up in 2023

By Rhod Mackenzie The export of goods from China to the United States decreased by 16.4%, and its imports from there decreased by 6% according to data…