in ,

Biden’s chance in 2020

Submitted by George Callaghan…

What chance does Joe Biden have of winning the presidency in 2020? At first glance one would assume that an incumbent would be re-elected. 75% of the time a sitting president who seeks a second term gets it. As George W Bush said peace, prosperity and incumbency confer major advantages. Trump has two of the three barring the minor scuffles in the Middle East.

Look at the opinion polls. The poll of polls shows Biden 10% ahead. If he maintains this lead he shall win by a country mile.

At this stage in the last electoral system Hillary Clinton was riding high. On average polls showed her 8% ahead. Polls tightened towards November as they usually do Polls showed her 3% or 4% ahead on election day. As we know she won the popular vote by 2% but lost the electoral college. Even if there is an error in the polls which understates Trump’s support by a similar amount to last time he is still 8% behind at the moment. Making up that shortfall is a tall order.

The demographics are moving the way of the Democrats. Hispanics break heavily towards the Democrats and they are a growing percentage of the populace. The same goes for Asians but they are a small community at the moment. African-Americans are not growing as a percentage of the population by they are hugely inclined towards the Democrats. The junior generation of whites leans towards the Democrats. Women lean towards the Democrats. The Republicans have the advantage among the elderly and uneducated white males. The Grand Old Party is also stronger among churchgoers, gunowners and rural people. These groups often overlap.

Trump has mishandled coronavirus. His maladroit response should sink him. However, he inspires blind faith among many. His polling at 41% is astonishing in the circumstances. He has never gone below 35%. Then again he has never touched 50% either.

The Democrats won the midterms by 8%. They tend to do better in the presidential years. If last time is anything to go by then they should win the presidency handily.

The Democrats cannot afford complacency. Gloating would redound to their disadvantage.

Biden is tight lipped. Why? After Trumps twitter storms, rants and unceasing barefaced lying people might welcome placidity and laconicism. Left to his own devices Donald J Trump will foul his nest.

Joe Biden is playing his cards close to his chest. He may calculate that this election is his for the taking. He will say as little as possible. Play it safe. So long as he does nothing idiotic he shall win by default.

With Donald J there is always a wild card factor. What will he do next? He might try a desperate gambit. He could bomb Iran or try some audacious demarche.

Poll ratings for a president always rise when he bombs another land. Rally to the flag. The commander in chief will have to choose his moment carefully. The day before the election will be too late. If he does it four months before the election it will be too early. By then a war will drag on without much success and his poll ratings will dip.

Right on cue no doubt another caravan of illegal immigrants will be spotted crossing Mexico. Trumpsters will say they have to vote for Trump to stop the illegals. Remember how previous caravans disappeared as soon as they no longer served Trump’s purpose?

How is that border wall going? Has he won a trade war? Has he beaten ISIS? He he withdrawn from Afghanistan? Or Iraq? Or Syria? Have Americans tired of winning? Has he drained the swamp? Has he locked her up? Has he got a great relationship with Russia? Has he funded Medicare? Or Medicaid? Has he made drugs better? Has he made them cheaper? Has he ended the opoid crisis? Has he stopped all Muslim immigration? Has he brought back worse than water boarding? Trump has failed to deliver on almost every promise.

Biden need only point out that Trump has reneged on his electoral pledges. Biden needs to offer a platform of his own.

Much depends on whom Biden selects as his running mate. He is inclined to select an ethnic minority person or a woman but ideally both. Kamala Harris would be ideal. The two have crossed horns in the past. But neither bears grudges. They could easily publicly forgive each other. Biden could express remorse about his relative indifference to the plight of African-Americans.

Miss Harris has the brains, the experience, the media savvy and let’s face it the looks. Rightly or wrongly women are often judged by appearance. Psychologists have often shown people vote for men on the basis of a  leadership look. A leader man or woman is unlikely to win if he or she is totally ugly. Trump apart from obesity is not bad looking.

Kamala Harris is telegenic, sincere, composed and self-assured. In many respects she would be a superb choice. She has disappointed some radicali within her party. She comes across as haughty but that is the norm in politics. Is haughtiness merely self-belief? Trump’s stratospheric arrogance is deemed to be appealing by many.

Biden has his weaknesses. He is even older than Trump. If he falls in public that could hurt his chances. But Trump is swaying in public and his mental declension and pre-Alzheimer’s is plain for all to see. Neither is in the first flush of youth. But Biden seems to be in ruder health than his rival.

Trump had some genuine successes. The stock market and unemployment were both going well. However, these advantages have evaporated. Much of its can be put down to COVID-19. But the president badly mishandled the situation. He greatly aggravated the situation. By contrast Biden was highlighting the gravity of coronavirus in January. In February the president said that coronavirus was a ‘hoax.’ Later that month Trump was still saying that coronavirus would be close to zero by March 12. His wilful ignorance and stupid suggestion that people should take hydroxychloroquine or disinfectant was extremely harmful.

I give Biden a 60% chance of winning. His margin of victory will be 5% of the popular vote.

1.4 16 votes
Article Rating
Help us grow. Support The Duran on Patreon!

Report

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Duran.

What do you think?

-18 points
Upvote Downvote
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
30 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
TEP
TEP
June 20, 2020

Very biased article, no accurate reference to Biden’s obvious senility and why he is quite rightly known as ‘Creepy Uncle Joe’. No mention also of his now widely accepted corruption, with particular regard to Ukraine. Biden has so many skeletons in his closet he will be a complete puppet to the deep state, as well as Hillary. Trump is an idiot and the choice once again is of the lesser of two evils, but with a senile powerless puppet as POTUS I think we should all be extremely concerned as to whether we would even survive Biden’s first term. TEP.

SteveK9
SteveK9
Reply to  TEP
June 20, 2020

Agree.

Clarity
Clarity
Reply to  TEP
June 20, 2020

All valid points. Although the Biden supporters do not see it that way and obviously don’t care. With all the skeletons, how do you explain the polls? Even by Trump friendly polling.

Blind leading the Blind
Blind leading the Blind
Reply to  Clarity
June 20, 2020

How to explain the polls? Because the American electorate feeds on fluff. They wouldn’t recognize a truly serious issue if it bit them.

Sue Rarick
Sue Rarick
Reply to  Blind leading the Blind
June 20, 2020

Polls are as accurate as the statisticians employers want them to be. They are just like what every University calls Grant money studies – You give the people paying you the Grant money the answer they want to hear. This isn’t new.

ManintheMoon
ManintheMoon
Reply to  Sue Rarick
June 20, 2020

I don’t why anyone pays any attention to polls any more. They have been consistently wildly inaccurate as regards conservative voters on both sides of the Atlantic. The media obsession with politically “acceptable” opinions means that many people won’t answer honestly if they think their views aren’t mainstream. I expect like last time the polls massively underestimate Trump’s support. I think he has much more to fear from multiple and fraudulent voting and rigging of election machines. (Incidentally, Hillary’s vote was almost certainly inflated by all these factors, so to say she won the popular vote is very questionable). However,… Read more »

Biden shoe-tying competition
Biden shoe-tying competition
Reply to  Sue Rarick
June 21, 2020

Ask 4 economists and get 5 answers.
 
Ask 4 statisticians and get 50.

Glocken-spiel
Glocken-spiel
Reply to  Blind leading the Blind
June 20, 2020

Europeans do not understand the realities of life in the US, because they do not live here. The recent looting, arson and violence against whites has alarmed those who live in the suburbs outside of the dysfunctional, crime-prone Democrat-administered large cities. Biden has no chance with employed white adults who have families and who view BLM and Antifa as operatives of the DNC-NYC East Coast Establishment. Those who doubted it before do not doubt it now.   It is ironic that many Europeans make condescending comments about Trump voters. These are the very voters who oppose the deconstructive, unemployable criminals… Read more »

Last edited 1 month ago by Glocken-spiel
Ugh...
Ugh...
June 20, 2020

The same thing I hear out of street interviews from residents in LA. Voters who vote republican are uneducated white males. Yet with all that education, they can’t find North Korea on a map. Don’t know US history. Their wonderful education centers like Berkeley make opposing views near impossible. Their followers look like Hairy, rainbow colored, mutant rejects that aren’t employable because of the awful attitudes they have. Such people are highly dependant on government assistance. These people never take any kind of responsibility, are narcissists, and anything goes including sedition. Flag burning, kneeling (no self esteem), and destruction of… Read more »

Blind leading the Blind
Blind leading the Blind
Reply to  Ugh...
June 20, 2020

Just Berkely? Berkeley’s been a hotbed of extremist views since the end of WWII. It’s the Harvards and Yales and Stanfords that lead the pack in brainwashing of the so-called elites that have been compromised into centers of mindless propaganda and now lead the pack.

Fun Facts
Fun Facts
Reply to  Blind leading the Blind
June 21, 2020

…..and now we discover that Yale is named after a British slave trader.
 
 

paul
paul
Reply to  Ugh...
June 20, 2020

Great choice.
Dogshit sandwich or catshit sandwich, just so long as it’s kosher.

Glocken-spiel
Glocken-spiel
Reply to  Ugh...
June 20, 2020

Only woke, leftist ignoramuses go to overpriced Berkley. It’s been that way for three quarters of a century.
 
 

Last edited 1 month ago by Glocken-spiel
Clarity
Clarity
June 20, 2020

George, interesting article.   Biden is tight lipped because he can no longer speak well.   The caravans disappeared only from the media, because the press realized they had miscalculated and instead the caravans were playing into Trumps hands. The caravans persisted, lessened, but the flood of illegals didn’t suddenly stop. The press just stopped reporting on them.   Using the misses of Trumps promises as an argument can also misfire on Biden. Easy enough for Trump to say that he has been sabotaged from day one and been kept from fulfilling on the promises. Which is at least in… Read more »

Sue Rarick
Sue Rarick
June 20, 2020

Totally biased but let us assume the Democrats win the whole game – House/Senate and Presidency…. What is the outlook with their talking points. Open Borders – That will put Blacks firmly on the bottom rung for a long long time. They are already getting ready for a conflict with Russia (Russia as a co – creator of WW2 ignoring all the appeasement by France and Britain that they accuse Russia of as the reason) Economy – Expect all the old regulations to be reinstated along with a slew of new regulations that ought to assure no new manufacturing in… Read more »

Bob
Bob
Reply to  Sue Rarick
June 21, 2020

Of the above points, I would of course support the Health Care one, as free health service for everyone is indeed a basic human right – along with free education for all – two fundamental human rights recognised in all civilised countries of the world today. However, you are absolutely correct: for these phonies “Health Care” would be merely a “talking point”. (Just think of that “Obama Care” fraud, whose author was actually deeper in bed with the “health insurance” vultures than anyone in memory.)

The Pundit Whodunit
The Pundit Whodunit
June 20, 2020

America’s political agenda of both parties is to elect people that will undo the previous party’s doings. It’s become a dead end country in perpetual deadlock.

Vera Gottlieb
Vera Gottlieb
June 20, 2020

Got nothing younger???

Tony123
Tony123
June 20, 2020

Once the rallies go full blast I think the polls will change. I think he mishandled the virus but not for the reasons you state. He never should have allowed the country to shut down. That was his greatest mistake.

John C Durham
John C Durham
June 20, 2020

From this article one might conclude that Donald Trump never has done anything in the last 4 years. I doubt the author is that ignorant. So, his article is not worth the paper it isn’t printed on.
Only one reason Trump will lose an election. The Press gave one side of every report almost 100% of the last 4 years. People must therefore conclude based on what they have been taught.
 

Last edited 1 month ago by John C Durham
paul
paul
June 20, 2020

May the Good Lord save us from “superb” Kabbala Haaretz.
Doing a soft shoe shuffle into the White House when Creepy Joe goes totally Ga Ga.

no mange
no mange
June 21, 2020

I believe the polls, but for a serious independent, Biden is a non-starter. An important key to Democratic success in November will be Biden’s running mate. If Harris’ record and credibility is the measure, her candidacy will be a non-starter. The author obviously doesn’t know a damn thing about Kamala Harris other than her photogenics, and candidacy branding. She is also a darling of AIPAC. But no surprise there.

Olivia Kroth
June 21, 2020

I do not think that President Trump has “mishandled” the coronavirus. I also do not think that Joe Biden has a 60 percent chance of winning. I believe that Donald Trump has a 60 percent chance of winning the presidency again, in November. He is doing a good job, overall.

The communal couch
The communal couch
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
June 21, 2020

I think you tend to over identify with his persecution.

Biden shoe-tying competition
Biden shoe-tying competition
June 21, 2020

He’ll be the token white guy in the White House vegetable garden.

Clarity
Clarity
June 21, 2020

This has some interesting points
 
Why the Polls Are Wrong on Trump | Louder with Crowder
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeDiyKFjwvw
 
 

Steve Brown
Steve Brown
June 21, 2020

‘Minor scuffles in the middle east…’ ?? Well nut case Americans/ Zionist bootlickers may see it that way. But millions have been harmed by America’s genocidal brutality/Warfare State there. And no mention of the central government filth-who-rule in US State and the CIA… colluding with depraved criminal banks and militarist mega-corporations. To highlight Kamala Harris, the psychotic deranged prosecutor, as being emblematic of that sickness at the core of the US Evil Empire is of course entirely appropriate however.

gax
gax
June 22, 2020

You disparage Trump’e mental health and say he is ohviously suffering from Dementia???….is that a typo…did you actually mean Biden who cannot even finish a single complete sentence?

che
che
June 25, 2020

Fantasy analysis.
These are polls created by the same narratives engineers who gave the world “Hillary by a landslide”.
 
Granted it doesn’t bring much media attention or excitement to report “Trump by a landslide”. But it would be the most honest analysis of the likely result in November. Everything the Davos elites and their minions in BLM, DNC, Antifar do to hurt Trump they end up driving people to support him. Even a fool can see these Davos elites are conducting an insurrection against Trump. It won’t fly.

A Av8r
A Av8r
July 17, 2020

This is my first time to this website.

So much bias in this article.

I have choices, so…

This is my last time to this website.

US to form icebreaker fleet for the Arctic

The Miserable Pseudo-Science Behind Face Masks, Social Distancing And Contact Tracing