The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of this site. This site does not give financial, investment or medical advice.
What follows is a full transcript, machine translated with some editing done by myself for clarity and correction. (Note: this editing may continue after the piece is published, in hopes of best representing the thoughts of the original writer in the English langauge. Any errors in the translation are my own – SH)
Some years ago, Evgeniy Prigozhin came to the world’s attention as “Putin’s chef”. The Wikipedia piece here linked is probably questionable, at least in its English-language representation, but a careful reader should be able to sift through the propaganda, especially readers of The Duran! The wikipedia site does put together enough data to show that this is a very smart man, and his commentary here shows a solid understanding of the military and political calculus underway in Russia AND in Ukraine – that is to say, on both sides. It is a recommended read.
Editor’s Note: Some of Mr. Prigozhin’s language is rather crude – Parents should exercise their God-given need for discretion before sharing this information with children.
Christ is risen!
Only a Fair Fight: No Agreement
April 14, 2023
The Wagner Private Military Company [Ed: “Wagner PMC”] continues to grind the Ukrainian army on Bakhmut. Zelensky sends more and more units into this meat grinder, into a destructive funnel that sucks in the best units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and mercenaries. Why is Zelensky so intent on keeping Bakhmut? Why, starting from December 20, when I challenged him with a comical challenge from the artillery guns of the Wagner PMC, did Zelensky behave like a boy and run into Bakhmut? And our intimate dialogue with him has been going on for four months. We both enjoy, but the orgasm never came.
What is the secret of the Bakhmut meat grinder?
The strategic role of Bakhmut is not so great. Bakhmut is followed by Seversk, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka and Chasov Yar: settlements that are part of the so-called “Donbas ring” and form a fortified area. On the one hand, Bakhmut is part of this fortified area, on the other hand, the capture of Bakhmut itself will not ensure a short-term victory over Ukraine, the road to the Dnieper, or even the capture of Donbass.
The top leadership of Ukraine endlessly argues about the need to keep Bakhmut. They are trying to shake this city as a sacred symbol. In the morning, sacredness is shaken, in the evening they decide to retreat, and the next morning thousands of soldiers are again thrown in, and so on ad infinitum.
The Ukrainian army has gathered a sufficient number of forces – about 200,000 already sufficiently trained fighters, who have undergone two to three months of training and coordination, and are ready to perform combat missions. The amount of weapons and ammunition is quite enough for these 200,000 to go on the offensive in various directions.
The troops ready for the counteroffensive are in the areas of concentration – they have enough of everything. In those tank wedges that they try to drive into the defense of the Wagner PMC every day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lose from 30 to 50 pieces of equipment every day, and they don’t experience problems with these losses. And for people they have, as they say at the front, unlimited.
However, announced first on December 20, then on January 1, then at the end of January, then on February 24, then on April 3-5, and now on April 15 – the offensive is postponed every time. The army of Ukraine is in the areas of concentration, they beat with a hoof and prepare to move forward. But, as they say, “A donkey that has stood in the shade will not work in the sun.” If the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not go on the offensive in the near future, they will gradually begin to lose their combat potential. The war will reach a stalemate, and those territories that are now under the control of the Russian Federation may remain at the disposal of the Russian Federation for years.
Political aspects of Bakhmut
Politically, Bakhmut is of little interest to the Kiev regime, it is more of a destabilizing factor than a factor of holding its positions. Every cry on Bakhmut, every captured soldier, every hundred killed hit Zelensky and the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine much harder than the benefits they get from holding the remnants of this city.
At the same time, the long battle for Bakhmut is extremely beneficial for Russian troops, because they have already squeezed a large piece of Ukrainian territory in 2022. If the special operation remains within these boundaries, plus or minus a couple of tens of kilometers, then this will solve many of the tasks of the Special Military Operation. Bakhmut makes it possible for the Russian army to build up strength, take advantageous defense lines, deal with internal problems, and prepare the mobilized and fully armed to meet any number of counter-attacking airmen.
Bakhmut is extremely beneficial for us, we grind down the Ukrainian army there and restrain their maneuvers.
Any mid-level commander knows that if you have created tension for the enemy in some place and have enough reserves, then you need to make a maneuver and strike nearby – where the enemy is not ready and where he will break. The most logical step of the Armed Forces of Ukraine would be a rebound from Bakhmut and sharp flank attacks to try to break through our defenses. However, every single day, columns of equipment come and go from Chasov Yar, and every day, before reaching the front line, hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers die, littering the “road of death” and the surrounding fields with thousands of corpses and hundreds of burnt armored vehicles, going to the slaughter.
A dramatic pause
As you know, the military operation on the part of Ukraine is tactically controlled by the Ukrainian military, and strategically by the so-called Western coalition led by England and the United States. In early April, there was a leak of documents from the Pentagon. The documents themselves do not pose any strategic danger. They simply collected everything in a row from the world on a single thread – most of it from open sources. However, the leak was widely publicized and immediately after it, active statements from sources close to the Pentagon began to be made about the need to delay the offensive announced for April 15 until the summer period. Why is the army ready for the offensive again detained at its borders and why is the “last Nanai warning” on April 15, the deadline for the Ukrainian offensive again postponed until the summer? After all, it would be much more painful for Russia if Ukraine started an offensive before May 9, damaging the Russian reputation [Ed: public morale] by inflicting troop losses before the holiday, or by gaining even minimal success of a few meters of land now held by Russia. And why does the Ukrainian army again “give a head start”? It is the Western coalition that takes “dramatic pauses”, it is this group that every time endures the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Perhaps 21-year-old Jack Teixeira leaked documents foolishly, perhaps he was used “in the dark” [Ed: “set up”], but if this leak had not happened, it would certainly have been invented in short order. I emphasize that the documents themselves are not strategic and do not pose any threat to the Armed Forces of Ukraine after their publication. This means that they cannot in any way add risks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the event of their exposure.
There are a huge number of conspiracy theories about the events of the 90s, and then 2014 – the Maidan in Ukraine and the transfer of Crimea under the control of the Russian Federation. There are a huge number of different prophecies that tell about the meanings of these events. One thing is absolutely clear – the United States and the Anglo-Saxon group had been planning the collapse of the USSR, their main geopolitical competitor, for a long time. In the late 80s and early 90s, they managed to overlay the ruling elite of the USSR with a huge number of agents of influence, give new meanings that changed the ideology of the existence of this ruling elite, put the population on a consumer needle and destroy the USSR. The collapse of the USSR was the most painful, the most difficult collapse of empires over the past hundreds of years, but it did not lead to the complete destruction of Russia and its division into small principalities. In the bowels of the American intelligence services, a plan has long been ripened to take the next step towards the complete collapse of Russia, which is fully consistent with today’s US doctrine.
The fragmentation of African states and the collapse of the former Warsaw Pact countries.
The smaller the country, the easier it is to manage, the more financially dependent it is, and the more obedient it is. The basis of modern US policy is financial neo-colonialism. This is when even the richest countries in mineral resources do not process the wealth of their mineral resources, but are fully integrated into the production and financial flows offered by “Western partners” – becoming American satellites, subcontractors and puppets. Therefore, the final task of the United States in the Ukrainian confrontation is to launch powerful centrifugal impulses in Russia, weaken the power and national identity in society and force it to turn towards the West, as it was doing in the early 1990s. At the same time, of course, in order to exercise control over the political situation in the country, the West must, first and foremost, gain control over financial instruments within the Russian system, over its production capacities and over its subsoil [Ed: “natural resources”].
Presently, when the Special Military Operation began, and the Russian Federation was not able to achieve the results that society expected, the United States had the opportunity to return to its original plan. The original plan, I repeat once again, was as follows: to destroy the Soviet Union, and then walk along the perimeter of the country and turn its former allies away from Russia. Over the last 30 years, with many former republics, this was almost achieved. We lost – first – full control, and then we lost good neighborly relations.
The “Deep State”
The collapse of Russia by military means cannot happen. Forests, swamps, vast territories, climatic specifics reliably protect the country’s territory, making it a huge fortified area. Throughout history, any enemy who reached Moscow, as a result shamefully fled, turning the “road of victory” into a “road of death” on the way back.
Why are the Anglo-Saxons holding Zelensky back, arranging internal conflicts and slowing down the offensive? Just in order to hit the main jackpot – the collapse of Russia into many principalities. The US does not need a quick war. They need a war that will lead to the Deep State’s persuasion and victory.
The Deep State is a community of near-state elites that operate independently of the political leadership of the state and have close ties and their own agenda. These elites work for different masters: some for the existing government, some for those who have been on the run for a long time, but, thanks to their connections, after the flight of the elder, they remain in their places. A typical example of the “Deep State” is the spitting of Khodorkovsky, Dvorkovich, and so on. Dvorkovich, who fled abroad, whom I mentioned many times, left behind a whole tail of scum who were under him and above him, and who are elements of this “Deep State”. The Deep State leaks information endlessly and is ready to side with any ally or enemy for its own interests. The Deep State is easy to approach because it is a sponge within a country that is red on one side, black on the other, white on the third, and green on the fourth. And from each side, having a connection with a part of the “Deep State”, you can get into its center. The Russian Deep State is currently in a serious crisis.
Many of those who supported the Special Operation earlier are now in doubt, or categorically against what is happening. The representatives of the Deep State want to urgently return to their normal lives, old habits and comfort. The Deep State is cunning and dodgy, the conversation of Joseph Prigogine is a vivid example of this. They are ready to mimic anyone. This is our inner, affectionate, cunning, bloodthirsty chameleon.
At meetings they are silent, express their doubts. And when making decisions on bureaucratic procedures, certain actions aimed at winning this war are hindered. Since the bureaucracy in Russia today is at a transcendent level, within the framework of the “legitimate bureaucracy” it is possible to destroy any decisions of the top leadership aimed at winning. These are internal enemies. In the theory of Alexander Dmitrievich Beglov, this is called a “bureaucratic sieve” – a sieve that you can get into, but impossible to get out of.
The Big Picture of the Game (Orig. ‘Super Game)
For the authorities and for society as a whole, today it is necessary to put some fat point in the Special Military Operation. The ideal option is to announce the end of the operation and to inform everyone that Russia has achieved the results that it planned. Admittedly, in a sense, we have actually achieved them. We have destroyed a huge number of fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and we can report to ourselves that the tasks of the Special Military Operation are completed.
Theoretically, Russia has already received this “primary objective” by destroying a large part of the active male population of Ukraine, and further by intimidating another part of it, which fled to Europe. Russia cut off the Sea of Azov and a large piece of the Black Sea, seized a fat piece of Ukrainian territory and created a land corridor to the Crimea. Now there is only one thing left: to firmly gain a foothold, to permanently secure those territories that already exist. But there is a slyness – if earlier, Ukraine was a part of the former Russia, now it is an absolutely nationalist-oriented state.
If before February 24, 2022, the European Union was greedy to give Ukraine tens of millions of dollars, now tens of billions are being poured into Ukraine [Ed: original transation read “turned off”, but I suspect this is what was really meant.] for the war. Of course, some of these funds please the pockets of the ruling elite of Ukraine, which benefits from the conflict. Many of those who were forgotten yesterday have received a new chance for self-realization and enrichment today.
Ukraine needs a victory, the US needs a process
The Ukrainian leadership is certainly getting rich, but due to the large losses of population at the front and the general fatigue from the war, its political leadership needs a victory. For Russia, there is always the risk that after the start of the counteroffensive, the situation at the front may worsen.
Preserving the existing borders as of February 24, 2023 is an exchange that the United States can offer the Russian leadership today as a negotiating position. For this, a “dramatic pause” is needed. If the government refuses, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine will go on the offensive. In this situation, there may be various options for the development of events. One of them is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will run into the defense of the Russian Federation, suffer serious losses, after which a colossal counteroffensive of the Russian troops will begin to the borders of the DPR, or to the Dnieper, or even to Poland. But, given the current dynamics and problems, such a counteroffensive, to put it mildly, is not very likely. The second option is that the Ukrainian army will launch a counteroffensive and somewhere be able to break through the [Russian] defenses.
In this case, in the Russian army, which for years considered itself one of the best armies in the world, decadent [Ed: I think “discouraged” is what is meant here] moods may begin to take root, and then worsen as the situation degrades, as happened after the defeatist wars of the early twentieth century – Finnish, Japanese – and the tragic events of 1917.
This could lead to global changes in Russian society. The Russian people are already looking for someone to blame for the fact that we are not the strongest army in the world, and in this situation they will look for an “extreme”. And these “extremes” will, of course, be representatives of the Russian Deep State. That is, those people who today, without putting any effort into a military operation, are as far away from the theater of operations as possible, trying not to lose their capital, to live a familiar life, and this is absolutely unacceptable for a people tired of the war and losing the taste of victory.
Patriots’ craving for justice can be hard on that very deep state, mired in luxury and bureaucracy.
At the same time, nothing threatens the supreme power of Russia, since it is a symbol of national unity and resistance to the West, and this is the basis of today’s existence and the main explanation for any problems for patriotic forces inside Russia.
The Deep State will push the supreme power to make serious concessions. And, according to the existing tradition of the Deep State, with any changes they only seek to improve their own position by any means, including by betraying the interests of Russia. Their task is neither to protect a nation or a people – their task is to butress their own position in society, their own comforts and their own wealth.
If you fall down, if the load of problems does not improve your situation, but pulls you to the bottom, then there is an expression: “Go to the bottom, then push off and rise up again.” This is what Americans are afraid of. They are afraid that excessive pressure on Russia and an increase in internal problems may pull her to the bottom. And if Russia reaches the bottom, pushes off from it, throwing off the burden of its own Deep Dtate, then it will surge upward like a huge sea monster, demolishing everything in its path, including the plans of the United States.
And there are many examples of this in world history. In the middle of the 20th century, China being one of the poorest countries in the world, under partial occupation, Germany after the First World War, Japan after the Second World War, Turkey after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. They all resurfaced, pushing off the bottom.
Radical national feelings will rise as after any military defeat, the Russian military industry will begin to work with a tenfold effort. Economic efficiency will crowd out sluggish, inefficient public capital. The state will get rid of its bureaucracy, processes will become transparent, and, step by step, Russia will turn into a Bristling Military Monster, which the international community will have to more than reckon with, to bend so that at every deflection we see their parted buttocks.
However, if we do not prove that we are strong militarily, no one will reckon with us, and they will turn us around as they please. For America, it is extremely unprofitable for Russia to hit bottom and bounce back. The United States needs a slow process where they negotiate with the elites, with the Russian Deep State, and then convince the country’s top political leadership to make new concessions, step by step.
In the event that soft agreements take place, then, according to the American principle of gradual humiliation, the Fridmans and Chubais will first be returned to Russia, then the Khodorkovskys and Dvorkoviches. Then the liberalization of the elites will gradually take place, and the “deep state” will accept them out of a sense of self-preservation, transform and turn from black or red to blue or pink.
[Ed: “blue” is often the word used to denote homosexuals in Russia, presently seen today as complete perverts and undesireables. “Pink” is the Western equivalent to denote sexually perverse people, the LGBT alphabet soup community and so on. While it is not for certain Mr. Prigozhin means this, the connection is certainly suggested in his text, and should not be ignored.]
Of course, such a development of events is unfavorable for Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelensky, they need to resist and fight. But if these processes happen quickly enough, within a year or two, then the liberalized, Americanized, Western-facing Russian Deep State will force the Russian political authorities to make concessions and, under various pretexts, it will return to Ukraine those territories that are now under our control, and which the West considers occupied.
These processes, along with the question “Why did we fight, then?” will certainly launch the mechanism of centrifugal forces in the regions. And the Americans will get their way. In this situation, the main plan of the United States will be implemented with, at first glance, a beautiful looking, “soft, calm agreement.”
Russia cannot accept any agreement, only a fair fight. And if we come out of this battle battered, there is nothing to worry about. The fortified regions of Russia make it impossible to penetrate into its depths. And the Russian people have never broken down and will never break down.
Therefore – the only way through this is a Fair Fight! And the Sooner it Starts, the Better.
I summarize. The Ukrainians are ready to attack. We are ready to repel the blow. The best scenario for healing Russia so that it rallies together and becomes the Strongest State is the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in which no handouts and negotiations will be possible.
Either the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be defeated in a fair fight, or Russia will lick its wounds, build up muscles and tear its rivals to pieces again in a fair fight. Therefore, I believe that the option of agreements is impossible for the future of Russia.
See you in Bakhmut.
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of this site. This site does not give financial, investment or medical advice.