Will Russia Attack NATO Countries?

A high-level discussion between two of the world’s greatest experts on foreign policy centered on the question of whether Russia will attack NATO countries such as Latvia for allowing drones to be shot from their territories deep into Russia, killing dozens of innocent civilians in a school and doing serious damage to their oil infrastructure. These nasty Baltic chihuahuas seem to have no fear of Russian retaliation. Many in Russia such as Sergei Karaganov are saying that action is needed to restore Russian deterrence in their minds. Now that Trump is pulling out of NATO, it would seem to be a good time for such retaliation. But Ray continues to say that Russia will not do it. Putin is playing the long game, and to him the relationship with the United States is the major factor. The US is detaching from NATO, but is not all the way out yet. If the US attacks, say, Latvia, there is still a chance that Trump will freak out, invoke Article Five and nuke Russia. Even if there is only a 5% chance of this, Putin does not want to risk it. The deaths of the students at the school was tragic, and the attacks on the oil structure are getting increasingly annoying, but still they are not “existential”. Putin will retaliate by increasing his attacks on Ukraine, attacking all decision centers including downtown Kiev. Foreign countries have been told to remove their personnel immediately. Russia means it. There will be increased missile and drone attacks combined with movements of ground forces toward Kiev. Rather than attack the Western European countries manufacturing and targeting the drones, Russia will develop better drone defenses and wait for their moribund leaders to fall. Trump has his hands full with Iran and doesn’t give a damn about Ukraine anyway. Satisfying as it might be for some of us to see Russia squash Latvia in a reenactment of “Bambi meets Godzilla”, let’s hope that Ray is right. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5R-rbzcEM8A