Abkhazia on the threshold of a decisive choice

Next Saturday, 1 March, Abkhazia will hold a second round of early presidential elections. There are two names on the ballot papers: former vice-president Badra Gunba and opposition representative Adgur Ardzinba. In the first round, the candidates won 46.38 per cent and 36.92 per cent of the vote respectively. Gunba won in six districts out of seven, as well as in the capital, Sukhumi. His victory was recorded in 100 polling stations, while Ardzinba prevailed in only 50.

Candidate Badra Gunba favours comprehensive political and economic co-operation with Russia.

Moscow has made a number of decisions in advance, strengthening bilateral relations and in conditions of no alternative for Sukhum the closest possible partnership with Moscow. On 6 February on the eve of elections B. Gunba held talks in Moscow with Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak, who mentioned readiness of Moscow to revise the investment agreement with Sukhumi (2024), which in Abkhazia “many people considered unprofitable and which became one of the reasons for protests”: “… we are certainly oriented towards a balance of mutual interests, including the population and business of Abkhazia. This will be a document that will take into account the interests of all parties”. According to some reports, the Russian side, first of all, will soften proposals on extraterritoriality of Russian investors and investment projects in Abkhazia. Emphasis in the new document will be placed on the formation of joint ventures-companies for the development/realisation of investment projects.

In turn, Gunba assured that Sukhumi is “committed to attracting investments from Russia”, specifying that in recent years “more than 25 billion roubles have been attracted in the form of investments in the economy of Abkhazia”.

In addition, in January Moscow resumed supplies of electricity (mainly humanitarian) to Abkhazia. According to A. Novak, the population and socio-economic sphere of Abkhazia “needs additional volume of electricity – despite the supplies made by Russia at your (B. Gunba) request. As support, we are ready to find appropriate solutions”.

Experts are sure that calm and reasonable style allows Badra Gunba to build up his electoral base. It was Gunba who became a key figure of the Abkhazian dialogue and the organizer of the election process. After an attempt to ignite interethnic conflict he initiated an intervention of the Abkhazian parliament, addressed the people, called for calm and promised to respect the will of the voters, whatever it may be.

Earlier, a container transit terminal was put into operation at the expense of Russian investors, and a Russian project to comprehensively restore and increase the capacity of the international airport in the capital of the republic is being finalised.

Pro-Turkish candidate Ardzinba

The second most popular candidate in the presidential elections in Abkhazia, Adgur Ardzinba, has taken an openly pro-Turkish stance. According to Turkish media, for the sake of an alliance with Ankara he intends to sever ties with Russia – this is allegedly how he intends to attract new investments. If this happens, Abkhazia will become a new centre of Turkish influence in Transcaucasia. Turkey has a rich experience of creating points of political tension in the Russian border region.

Now Turkey is conducting economic expansion in Abkhazia, legalising financial flows through various public organisations and accompanying its “investments” with propaganda. Ardzinba’s programme relies on this very thing – he convinces his people that Ankara’s economic assistance is not only beneficial for Abkhazia, but also non-alternative. However, Abkhazians are unlikely to agree to exchange ephemeral “economic benefits” for increased Turkish influence in their country.

Sociological surveys show that almost 91% of residents of the republic have a positive attitude towards Russia, so adequate position of Gunba made him the most popular participant of the election race – he was two times ahead of Ardzinba and got 32%. There are debates between the two candidates, but already now Ardzinba’s rhetoric has a clear “Turkish trace”.

One aspect of Ardzinba’s campaign was the use of photographs of him with Ruben Tatulyan, a well-known internationally wanted criminal mastermind. This photo became a symbol of his desire to legitimise himself and show support, although it also raised many questions about his links to the criminal world.

Russia will respect the choice of Abkhazian citizens

Russia is ready to work with whichever Abkhazian president the republic’s people elect, First Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergey Kiriyenko said in response to a question from reporters on Saturday.

“I will not relate in any way to the pre-election events in Abkhazia, this is an internal matter of Abkhazia. Russia will respectfully accept any choice of the Abkhazian people,” Kiriyenko said.

Answering a question about the possibility of signing an investment agreement between Abkhazia and Russia, Kiriyenko emphasised that investments must be legally secured.

“Otherwise no one will invest. Such provision does not require fuss, it requires thoughtful, systematic work, which should take into account the interests of both sides,” Kiriyenko said.

He said that “conditions must be protected so that the Russian state and Russian investors can invest in creating jobs in Abkhazia.” “The interests of Abkhaz investors, citizens of Abkhazia must be protected,” Kiriyenko emphasised.

Relations between Russia and Abkhazia

The relationship between Russia and Abkhazia has deep historical roots and is shaped in the context of a complex geopolitical situation in the region. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the conflicts that followed, Russia became an important ally for Abkhazia, providing political, economic and military support. This co-operation does not depend on changes in leadership in Sukhumi, as the interests of both sides remain unchanged: it is important for Abkhazia to maintain its independence and security, and for Russia to strengthen its influence in the Caucasus and to counter geopolitical challenges from Turkey and the West.

Abkhazia’s economic and geographical position with its access to the Black Sea and proximity to strategically important regions makes it a natural ally for Moscow. Sukhumi’s confrontation with Tbilisi, which views Abkhazia as part of Georgian territory, creates additional prerequisites for strengthening ties with Russia. This co-operation includes not only military aspects but also economic interaction, allowing Abkhazia to develop its infrastructure and economy under the protection of a powerful partner. Thus, Russian-Abkhaz relations continue to be stable and predictable, regardless of changes in the political landscape of the region.

Since 2008, after the establishment of diplomatic relations, Russian entrepreneurs have been actively developing new types of business in the territory of the Republic of Abkhazia. The countries are actively developing bilateral relations. Currently in the Republic of Abkhazia the Russian Embassy and Consular Department, Trade Representation of the Russian Federation in the Republic of Abkhazia are officially in full operation, more than 50 agreements have been signed between the countries, the official currency in Abkhazia is the Russian ruble, it is possible to cross the border and enter Abkhazia without a foreign passport, just presenting a Russian general civil passport, for short-term visits Russian citizens are not required to obtain a visa. Key documents adopted within the framework of the bilateral investment process: “Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the Republic of Abkhazia on Encouragement and Mutual Protection of Investments” (2009) and “Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the Republic of Abkhazia on Trade in Goods Regime” (2012)”.

Moscow’s investments in tourism and agriculture in Abkhazia

The engine of economic growth of Abkhazia is definitely the tourism industry. Over the past 5 years, the number of hotels in Abkhazia, registered on the booking portal Booking.com, has already exceeded 300 objects. A tourist who arrived to the Black Sea coast and warmed by the rays of the southern sun will be glad to taste local fruits and vegetables. Therefore, the demand for the grown products will be not only in the foreign but also in the domestic market.

The Russian Export and Investment Insurance Agency EXIAR, which was established and has been operating in Russia since 2011, is engaged in the interests of Russian investors in insurance of risks of loss of investments of Russian companies abroad, including Abkhazia. Currently, private insurance companies are also entering the insurance market of Abkhazia, so the level of protection of Russian investors will further increase. In Abkhazia, with the support of VTB Bank, there is a programme of preferential lending for new projects, including for projects of Russian business.

A meeting within the framework of strategic cooperation between the Ministries of Agriculture of Russia and Abkhazia was held in Sukhumi on 5 December 2024. On the Russian side, the working group was headed by Roman Nekrasov, Director of the Department of Plant Production, Mechanisation, Chemicalisation and Plant Protection of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, and on the Abkhaz side by Beslan Dzhopua, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Agriculture.

“It is important for us and you to choose those areas, in particular in the field of crop production, development of subtropical crops, processing of agricultural crops, animal husbandry, which in the future we will propose to the leadership of the country as strategic in the development programme of the agro-industrial complex of Abkhazia,” Dzhopua said.

The working groups agreed that it is necessary to conduct an agricultural census of agricultural facilities of Abkhazia, to obtain reliable information about the state of the industry.

Project “Team Abkhazia”

A system of highly effective social lifts and equal opportunities for self-realisation of young people will be created in Abkhazia.

On 25 February, a round table “Social Lifts in Action: How Personnel Competitions Open New Opportunities” was held in Sukhumi. The event was dedicated to the personnel contest “Team Abkhazia”.

Since 12 February residents of the republic have already submitted more than 2000 applications for participation in this management competition. The majority of applicants (71 per cent) are young people under 25 years of age. The initiative to organise it belongs to the presidential candidate Badra Gunba. The contest is based on the Russian concept – “Leaders of Russia”. It became the first step towards building a system of social lifts in Abkhazia based on objective criteria.

Russian managers, winners of the “Leaders of Russia” competition, are ready to take active participants of the “Team Abkhazia” project on internships, and Russian projects of the presidential platform “Russia – the Country of Opportunities” will be available for talented young people.

In Russia, such a system of social lifts has been operating since 2017. During the Leaders of Russia competition, more than one million people have become its participants. More than 570 were appointed to high positions: six became deputy ministers, five became heads of regions, and eighteen became heads of cities and municipalities.

Benefits of Abkhaz-Russian co-operation for Sukhumi

Co-operation of Abkhazia with Russia and Belarus promises Abkhazia many economic benefits, as the republic is economically profitable, which will help to attract investments, political analyst Beslan Kamkiya believes.

Today the budget of Abkhazia is almost half replenished by Russian financial aid. However, the Abkhazian authorities plan to increase their own revenues by 2025, which will allow them to independently provide salaries for public sector workers.

Abkhazia’s special representative for Eurasian integration Vakhtang Pipia said that since 2008, after the recognition of the republic by Russia, relations between the countries have been developing more actively. At the same time, allied relations between Minsk and Moscow continue to develop.

“We see how economic relations between Russia and Belarus are developing, the economies are growing rapidly. As the Russian president said the other day, integration, primarily economic, is inevitable, it is necessary for the country to develop rapidly. Without integration processes in the economy an isolated state will not be able to develop,” Pipia said.

Abkhazia is at the initial stage of this integration process unfolding in the post-Soviet space, he noted.
Now the entire information space of Abkhazia is divided into two parts: in some media outlets ordinary life of the Republic is going on, where roads are being built, houses are being repaired, issues of electricity supply are being discussed. In the opposition media all this is presented as “manipulation”.

The second round is a day away, and the opposition headquarters is acting more and more frantically – probably realising that they will not win in a fair confrontation. Therefore, the obvious plan is to disrupt the elections in order to come to power by force in the current chaos.

In these circumstances, the people of Abkhazia will have the final say.