Prof. John Mearsheimer : Trump Unintentionally Reshaping Middle East

Russia barely misses Boris Johnson and David Petraeus on their way to Kiev by train. Too bad they missed, is what I say. It was apparently just a warning, but they better take the hint. Russia is going full steam ahead in Ukraine. Prof. Mearsheimer is still saying that the Ukraine war will end in an “ugly victory” for Russia and a “rump Ukraine” on the grounds that Putin does not want western Ukraine, and the Russians he has talked to have said they have no idea of what “victory” will look like. I still say that he is wrong about this. Russia will not allow a “rump Ukraine”, a failed state on its border infested with Nazis and NATO operatives. I don’t know which Russians the Professor has spoken with. Scott Ritter has talked to senior Russian officials, and they have a different idea of what victory will be. Russia will demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine all the way to the Polish border. They probably will negotiate new borders with Poland, Romania and Hungary to give them some territory adjoining their countries. They will install a friendly administration in Kiev headed by a Russia-friendly politician, who will cooperate in ridding the area of Nazis. Ukraine will become a sister state of Russia like Belarus. With a friendly administration in Kiev, Russia will give Ukraine back its access to the Black Sea and will generally restore the whole area devastated by the war.

On the Iran conflict I am in complete agreement with Prof. Mearsheimer. The US is out of military options (other than nuclear). It cannot protect Saudi Arabia from its folly in resuming the war with Yemen it started in 2015. It has begged Trump to bomb Ansarallah’s troops, and Trump has refused twice. He knows he is out of ammo. Every one of his senior military commanders has told him to get out. Scott Bessant’s “Economic D-Day” is a joke. Diesel is already approaching $10 a gallon in California. Yesterday he blamed Zelensky for the rise in Diesel prices, not the Iran war, which he claims he has already won and the Strait of Hormuz is open. He says he has told Zelensky to stop targeting Russian diesel facilities. Everybody is having a good laugh about that one. The Saudi government is faced with the choice of dealing with Iran as a mediator to stop the war with Ansarallah or ceasing to exist. All of its means of producing or exporting its oil have been closed, as may be seen from the map below. With the US gone, none of the Gulf countries have any choice but to deal with Iran as the regional power. The Kingdom of Jordan will not last long, and could even become part of a “Greater Palestine”. Hezbollah will liberate Lebanon, and neither the United States nor anything else will protect “Israel” from the wrath of God.