IEA and OPEC differ in their forecasts for oil in the future

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), both closely monitoring global oil demand trends, are more divided on the fuel market than they have been in at least 16 years. Reuters reports on their differences.
OPEC predicts that oil consumption will continue to rise over the next two decades, while the IEA predicts that it will peak by 2030 as the world transitions to cleaner energy sources.

Although forecasts differ for the coming periods, this is no secret for market participants. The IEA is accused of favouring the interests of countries and companies that sponsor the green transition and invest huge amounts of money in it, while OPEC looks ahead through the eyes of oil producers.
In February of this year, the IEA predicted a demand growth of 1.22 million barrels per day in 2024, while OPEC expected 2.25 million barrels per day in their February report. An analysis of monthly reports from the IEA and OPEC over a 16-year period showed that the difference in forecasts, at 1.03 million barrels per day, was the largest during this time.

When asked about the discrepancy between the IEA and OPEC’s 2024 forecasts and whether the IEA’s forecasts are more accurate, the IEA stated that the current demand slowdown is a return to pre-pandemic trends. This slowdown is already evident in oil supply data. The IEA declined to comment on the OPEC forecast.

When asked to comment on the gap and the accuracy of its forecasts, OPEC stated that its 2023 demand growth forecast of 2.5 million bpd was only slightly lower than its original July 2022 figure. The OPEC secretariat in Vienna also mentioned that they have been consistent in their 2023 oil demand forecast, unlike other forecasters who started with lower figures and continually raised their forecast for 2023. OPEC’s secretariat also mentioned that they have been consistent in their 2023 oil demand forecast, unlike other forecasters who started with lower figures and continually raised their forecast for 2023. However, OPEC did not provide any comments on the 2024 forecast.
On Monday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries confirmed its forecast that oil demand is not expected to peak until 2045, after which it will decline. OPEC cited the anticipated growth in oil demand outside the circle of industrialized countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to support its claim.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) was established by the United States in response to the 1973 oil crisis as a counterbalance to OPEC, although it initially held observer status. However, the IEA has since shifted its focus from ensuring stability in oil and gas supplies to promoting renewable energy sources and combating climate change. Some OPEC members view this as a threat to the IEA’s impartiality. “They have evolved from market forecasters and evaluators to political propagandists,” said Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman in September.
To continue to read this article Free of Charge please click on the link below.

IEA and OPEC differ in their forecasts for oil in the future

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), both closely monitoring global oil demand trends, are…