THE U.S. EMPIRE IS ENDING: Iran and Russia Will Never Again Negotiate with Trump. Trump Tries to Merge the Wars Against Iran and Against Russia.

13 August 2026, posted by Eric Zuesse. (All of my recent articles can be seen here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbopXjaKbC8

https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/alastair-crooke-iran-and-russia-give

“Alastair Crooke: Iran & Russia Give Up on Diplomacy & Go on the Offensive”

13 August 2026, Glenn Diesen

00:01

Welcome back. Alistair Crooke joins us today, a former British diplomat and expert on the Middle East. And I would highly recommend following his Substack, Conflicts Forum. And this is at where I go for the best insights into what is happening in the Middle East.

00:20

So, thank you very much for coming back on. >> My pleasure. Always a pleasure. Thank you for having me. >> So, you are very well known for doing yeah, back channel diplomacy, negotiating local ceasefires, especially during the second uh uh Intifada. And you Well, when you served as the security adviser to the EU’s foreign policy chief.

00:44

But, unlike many of your colleagues, you recognized that there’s a need to include, rather than exclude, the different Islamist movements, Hezbollah, Hamas, uh in order to sus- Well, get a sustainable peace. Uh But, I can assume that it’s a good way of making enemies in powerful places to want to include all the different actors.

01:09

But, what I see now though is with this war on Iran, it’s really spreading across the region. It’s opening up tensions, well, conflicts for example, between the Saudis and the Yemen, which would exist quite independent from Iran. And uh it seems to yeah, put an end to this. You would require some complex diplomacy, not just between Washington and Tehran, but attempt to include the different stakeholders in this conflict.

01:37

So, I was just wondering, as this war continues to spread or widen, uh how how how are you assessing the problem? And which which actors do you think have to be involved to put an end to all of this? I know that’s a very wide question. >> Okay, well, um I’d like to take it piecemeal, rather than to do it all at once. I mean, you know, first of all, where are we? And I think it’s pretty clear um from Iran, we’ve seen first of all, a new statement from the Supreme National Security Council.

02:17

Um which is more or less a restatement of the first 10 principles that were enunciated ahead of the Islamic uh the Islamabad talks. Um but it differed in uh a number of points. I mean, the language of it was tougher. Saying, you know, we’re not going to be put up with this sort of mhm [clears throat] you know, vulgar language and calling us names.

02:45

So, forget it. Uh at the same time there was a change in the secretary of the council, the security the SNC. Um the outgoing one um actually made that statement, which is quite important. It wasn’t the new incoming uh Mohsen Rezaei that made the statement. It was the outgoing one who had been nominated by Pezeshkian.

03:13

Now, he loses his vote on the SNC and Rezaei now has a vote as a representative of the supreme leader. Uh and then there’ve been a number of military changes at the same time. What I think we’re seeing is uh a a very concerted consolidation uh around um uh a a leadership and around a vision. And the vision is one um that is the the Iran is not going to look for a solution with this precedent.

03:57

Zarif has always said that outright. Uh that um you know, perhaps we need, we’ll have to keep the war on till 2019. Um the whole most block will be till 2019. Um I don’t think this means that they are looking for an all-out war more that um as Trump pivots or has pivoted to sort of uh moving away from the war towards as Bessent says, you know, economic pressure.

04:35

We don’t have to worry about it. Economic pressure on Iran will be sufficient and we can go on manipulating the price of oil so that people don’t get too fast. Um uh uh in this case then Iran has said we will go on attacking ships. And they seem to have got the measure of the game because on Monday this last Monday um actually half an hour before market opening, instead of um Axios with Barak Ravid saying, “Oh, a deal is about to come.”

05:09

Uh they targeted a tanker just half an hour before markets to to make a point. So they they you know, they’ve understood you know, how the manipulation of markets is is being done and have responded in their own way. So I mean, I think we’re going to go into a situation of uh of extended sort of um uh skirmishing between Iran and um United States.

05:40

And they’re going to put pressure on Trump and I don’t think they intend to negotiate. In fact, they do not intend to negotiate with Trump unless he wants to capitulate completely. Um, so a change there. Now, you wanted to sort of bring it into the region as a whole. Um, I would say that this again, there’ve been a succession of miscalculations.

06:08

I mean the first miscalculation by the United States was that they didn’t check their inventories, their weapons inventories properly before starting a war, which you’d think would be one of the, you know, the most obvious things to do. But then again, if you assume the war is only for 4 days, perhaps they thought it didn’t matter.

06:33

But that was a big mistake because they didn’t check their inventories. I I think the second big mistake um, is precisely this of um, pretending saying, “Oh, you don’t have to worry about oil or the other elements passing either through the Red Sea or there’s No, because actually we think a lot more tankers than is understood have been passing through and um, we’re managing to manipulate the oil price.

07:06

And he and Bet and keeps reassuring Trump, “Don’t worry about it, you know, the economic pressure is going to be on Iran and they’ll eventually capitulate and we can manage the oil price and we can manage the economy.” Like, I think this is another big mistake. I think it’s a big mistake because first of all, uh, you know, the manipulation of oil of oil has actually become uh, a sign of American weakness for for the rest of the world.

07:41

You know, the the very obvious management of these prices is not fooling anyone at all any longer. And it’s not preparing people for what is coming. Because, you know, it’s fine for Bassant and others to say, “Well, look, you know, the oil price, we’re managing it down to 87 at the moment or whatever.” The price means nothing.

08:07

Forget it. You know, those nice graphs that we had at university, demand and supply and the equilibrium at the middle at the middle where they curve. But, actually, what counts most of all is the supply curve because that is about scarcity and about real, if you like, things.

08:28

And demand is something that is ephemeral and can come and go. But, actually, real supplies, and we all know that the real um supplies, particularly of the middle distillates that make diesel and kerosene, is largely absent. So, then they’ve turned to the idea um of using getting pressure on the Iran by um putting pressure on the region. Um putting pressure on Iran um in Lebanon by promoting the scheme to um disarm Hezbollah that they hatched up, which runs completely counter to the um memorandum of understanding, the MOU.

09:19

Um and they’ve been doing this by putting pressure on the Hashad, the PMU, the the resistance war, if you like, the um uh militia in um Iraq um that um they attacked in recent days. Saudi Arabia and America attacked them during the Arba’een period when most Shi’a were, um, going to Karbala on pilgrimage. And this, too, I mean, it’s been a succession of really egregious mistakes because I know I’ve met the Hashd leaders and I know a little what they’re like.

10:07

I met them in Karbala. And, I mean, you know, we think of them in the West or the West categorizes them Oh, they’re just Iranian proxies. You know, these switch on, switch off proxies, they don’t do what they’re told. Couldn’t be further from the truth. These people are really adamant Iraqi nationalists, hard nationalists, proud people, tough, um, but nationalists.

10:40

And yes, they’re Shi’a. And of course, Iran is the mothership of Shi’aism in in many ways, but that doesn’t mean that they just take orders from Iran. I mean, there’s coordination, but it doesn’t mean that they are just sort of robotics, um, in the hands of Iran. And they’ve promised, um, reprisals for the attacks on them. Saudi Arabia.

11:05

Why Saudi Arabia and America chose to attack them in the first place is a puzzle. Saudi Arabia said it was because they attacked an Aramco, um, refinery. Um, uh, but the Hashd strongly deny it. And I’ve seen no evidence that they were involved with it. Maybe they decided to attack them because Saudi Arabia was anxious not to put the finger on uh the Houthis in Yemen because that would mean they would have to escalate against the Houthis and they are really reluctant to go to war with the Houthis although now the war in Yemen is coming to Saudi Arabia

11:52

whether they like it or not. It’s there now and there’s the flames are getting higher almost every day. So that so um I think this was an attempt both in all of the areas to try and put uh pressure on Iran. Um and actually what it’s done is the opposite. Um it hasn’t put pressure on Iran. Actually, it is putting pressure on all of the allies of the United States like Saudi Arabia.

12:25

All of these states are actually coming under pressure because the tensions are rising. Um the the atmosphere in the region is getting hotter. I mean actual flames are taking place in many parts and and affecting everyone including the West Bank. Particularly important what’s happening in the West Bank and in Gaza. That is you know the bedrock of um possible uh flare-up in in the Middle East which may come at any time.

13:00

So in short all of those things um indicate um you know major mistakes having taken place. And so people are not prepared so I don’t think they’re prepared for the economic consequences. I mean it’s it’s uncanny and it’s not even mentioned in the Western press at the moment at all. I think it’s mentioned much about it.

13:29

It’s assumed that it’s all being managed by Bessent with his manipulations of the price. So, that’s really where we where we are. Um Trump has pivoted away from Hekseth um blaming him at Camp David saying, “You know, you misled me about the munitions. I thought this had all been resolved.” And he’s turned to Bessant.

13:54

And Bessant is saying, “Look, you don’t have to worry. Everything is fine. You know, the Iranians will run out of oil very soon, and um they will be We just need to keep the blockade, and we will win the war. And I believe uh this is absolutely uh mistake. Iran uh has uh um positioned enough oil and tankers before the start of the war.

14:23

It’s sold 80 million barrels since um is continuing to sell and allow traffic to China, for which it will get paid. Uh and so, actually, if anything, it’s probably slightly ahead of its budget. Um I don’t think Yes, I mean, economic pressures at some point, but I don’t think Well, I mean, we’re not talking about anything imminent.

14:48

We’re talking about months, maybe next year that we would see some pressures. But again, the misreading of Iran because if Iran gets to a point where its situation becomes existential, then they have a choice of capitulation or escalation to a bigger war, they will choose escalation to war, I believe.

15:17

And that’s pretty much confirmed if you look at the the choice of the military leaders who’ve just been appointed by the supreme leader. >> So, what What is the What are the options of the United States here though because as you said, Iran appears to not be on the offensive, at least harden its position in terms of both rhetoric and uh and the actions.

15:42

It doesn’t uh have to wait for American attacks and try to mirror it. It goes, you know, takes the initiative itself. Uh What what what can the United States do here? I mean, the options are the table cuz uh it’s very hard to read the United States at the moment. You have Trump making the speeches that, “Well, we already control the Strait of Hormuz and uh it’s wide open.

16:05

” And then you have Scott Bessent arguing, “Well, the Strait of Hormuz is not really relevant at all. We’ll just reroute everything through underground pipes.” And uh it’s uh Yeah, it’s uh It’s it’s it’s it’s a little bit like the market manipulation referred to it. It sounds like they’re only trying to make the whole thing go away with empty talk, but uh it’s it’s not going away and uh the situation won’t really improve.

16:32

>> So, what What What is the goal here? Or what what are the possible options because if they can’t win, if their military option is not convincing, there’s no uh well, path to peace which the US can accept. I mean, I think when they signed the MOU, they didn’t really have any intentions to unfreeze the you know, the the the Iranian assets and pay reparations and all this war.

16:57

So, what What What is left here? What What can the United States do? >> Uh I I I I think you you hit it the nail on the head exactly. I think that, you know, they think that and Trump has been quite good at it during his career, is to just say reality is not the reality that you see in front of you. This is the reality and I’m managing it and I’m conducting it.

17:28

And quite often that reality, you know, that he proclaims bears no relation to to what you know. Like when he says, “Oh well, Hormuz is right open. Hormuz is open. We and we’re running a a wall of steel around Hormuz.” Uh when we know in in in these days nothing is moving through. Uh and when you look at something like Saudi Arabia, um which is um uh has now suffered uh both ends of its pipeline to Yanbu, the the the loading area in the Red Sea, been destroyed.

18:14

Um and the Yemenis are um putting a siege on the ports um at Yanbu and any Saudi vessels leaving um are being threatened and either turning back or some are attacked and even some commercial shipping of Saudi Arabia’s been attacked uh recently as well, which is going to have a big impact on the Red Sea as a whole because what that means is um as I understand it, that the short insurance companies are now going to go up to um uh war premiums for all shipping in the Red Sea.

18:58

It’s not just going to be one, it’s going to have a wider uh a wider a wider effect. So, Saudi production is down uh by 74%. Um they can’t sell um the oil. They need I mean oil at $100 to break even with their government budget. And selling the full amount and they’ve just just collapsed by 74 percent. At the same time, because of the crisis with Japan, Besant has made it very clear no one’s allowed to sell US Treasuries.

19:43

So, what does Saudi do if it can’t sell its oil and it can’t sell its Treasuries? I mean, you know, the only thing that can happen is the United States has to bail it out by saying, “Okay, well, you know, give us your Treasuries and we’ll give you the money and you’ll we’ll swap it back again in a repo account at a later date, like they’re doing with Japan.

20:09

” Um The UAE, I do not think has exported any oil. Um liquefied gas is not passing through um uh either or well, it it wouldn’t from from the Red Sea, but it’s not passing through Hormuz. So, I mean, Trump faces a you know, more than just one dilemma. It’s not just you can sit there and wait to see it all, you know, that Iran gets no more under more and more pressure.

20:44

And Iran has been under pressure for years. It knows how to manage. It’s spent decades finding byways and backways and other ways of living despite all of the sanctions on it. And as I say, if they’re faced with that option, um but it equally what we I think are going to see, uh unless we are very fortunate, is an escalation across the region.

21:15

And I think the most dangerous part of it is going to be um in Israel. It’s going to be very dangerous in Israel because the elections have become um a really um uh toxic. And there is a big divide opening out uh between, if you like, the secular Ashkenazi, Europeanized Jews who came in search of sort of safety to uh uh in in Israel.

21:51

And the other part, uh partly Messianic, National Religious, um and they are much more um Talmudian in their outlook, and hardline. And the two are almost at the point of violence about the future. But what is really concerning is that the right-wing parties, the polling shows that Israelis as a whole um are favoring the right um by a clear clear, you can see a clear shift towards the Israeli right.

22:32

But most of those right-wing parties, Likud, the National Resistance, and um uh uh uh Ben-Gvir’s party of um Israel First. Um uh they are not getting the seats. They’re not getting seats. I don’t know why. And it’s not clear why they’re not. If the mood is going that way, why are they not in the polls sort of picking up um a a a a better position.

23:03

And um so what we hear increasingly from those that element Ben Gvir and Smotrich and others that what is needed is an intifada in the West Bank. Or some action taken uh concerning Al-Aqsa Temple Mount Haram al-Sharif. Um because that’s is the way we can win the election. If the electoral balance is moving away from us, we are not going to concede power.

23:40

And Netanyahu is making all the arrangements so that he doesn’t have to concede if he loses the election. He’s gerrymandering the system, putting in his places, saying we don’t need to obey the Supreme Court on this or that. There’s a very strong We record it all on our Substack for people who are interested and following it because it’s very important.

24:10

And at the moment the West Bank has already started. Settlers are going in, attacking Palestinian villages. Um there I there it’s very clear that the army is about to go into the refugee camps in West Bank, not in Gaza, they’re already doing that in Gaza, but to go into West Bank uh and to attack the Palestinians there and to really get back to a sort of ’48 type situation in the West Bank where Palestinians leave.

24:43

And they believe this will mean that this is the path to winning the election. Um and the election is very fraught and it’s not clear that um Netanyahu can win it. He’s doing all sort of maneuvers like inventing new parties to sort of to create the strategic aim is to create a circumstances in which no other government can be elected except his.

25:15

Um because as you recall, he he he if he is no longer prime minister, he may have to go to prison. Um so um uh the whole region and if you like the war between Yemen and Saudi Arabia is certainly heating up. The Houthis have fired missiles at the Saudi-aligned forces in the south, sent them fleeing. Um many missiles, big attacks.

25:48

They the Houthis saw a build-up of forces amongst the Saudi-aligned forces in the south that they saw preparing the ground for an attack um in the north in Sana’a on on the Houthi-controlled uh territory. So, they took action to destroy that build-up and that massing of forces. And um uh and as I say, um you have the uh Hashd al-Shaabi militia uh in in Iraq uh promising retaliation against Saudi Arabia on the borders of Saudi Arabia.

26:26

Saudi is moving troops on its to its borders. You have Iran incursion into Iraq to smash the Kurdish, as they see this, Kurdish forces in the in in Iraq um to because there was reports that the Americans were still looking at whether it’d be possible to um push the Kurds to try and invade into Iran and seize an area as a sort of sovereign state of Kurdistan.

27:04

Um um we saw the same thing being done by Ukraine and Russia a little time ago, as you recall, um as a pressure point. Um and so the Iranians have come in to that, killed many assassinated some of the leaders, destroyed the the munitions and the logistics for for that. Uh and um the Iraqis have also told the Syrians if they start, as Trump has been suggesting they do, that they should be involved in in Lebanon and they should be involved in managing Lebanon.

27:48

Trump has suggested it would be good idea if Sharaa should be involved in managing the disarmament of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Um the Iraqis are on the Syrian border ready and they say, “You move against Lebanon or we move into Syria.” That’s the equation there. So all in all, you have a very messy, increasingly heated situation across the Middle East.

28:20

And far from putting pressure on Iran, it’s actually going to put pressure on all the allies like um Saudi Arabia, um UAE, all the Gulf states will be very anxious uh at the sudden um you know a rustle of um of um Iraqi um militancy of um Hezbollah militancy uh and across the region um with the Iranians continuing to um threaten and perhaps act to destroy the infrastructure of the Gulf states um if America tries to destroy the infrastructure of Iran.

29:18

Netanyahu is pressing for um United States uh in in these words, I’m quoting um to destroy the infrastructure such that the state is unable to provide services to its people. I’ve described that as effectively a slow nuclear bomb rather than a fast one because that’s what it would mean, particularly in the middle of summer with to have no electricity, no water, no facilities.

29:50

I mean, it would be difficult to maintain uh the situation uh at at all. So, um uh it’s it’s it’s it’s it’s it’s a very tense um a tense situation and I think the thing to keep an eye on will be very much to keep an eye on what happens in West Bank. That explodes, it can set off um explosions everywhere. And Hamas is due to be moved according to Trump’s peace plan into their sort of concentration camps.

30:30

They didn’t call it a concentration camps, but they’re the sort of secure areas. Um and to try and disarm them as well. So, altogether in a very unsettled area. And one uh it looked for a minute as if that was going to be sort of merged into a war the war on between uh Ukraine and Russia because um Ukrainians fired on a Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea.

31:00

Um and the point here was that just days before it, the Americans attacked um Iranian bases in the Caspian for the first time. And then there was the attack on the um Iranian vessel in the Caspian. And it looked as if that was about to you know, become a part of this conflict. However, it seems that the Ukrainians have now backed off and sort of apologized and um backed away from it. I don’t know.

31:37

Um it uh Are there people in Washington that are crazy enough to think merging the two wars is a good thing? What do you think? I don’t know. >>

31:50

>> I think the assumption that they would be able to control such a such a situation is very difficult and I think that’s part of the hubris. They sit and think they have you know, they can twist some buttons and uh dials and they can uh be able to essentially control how it escalates where the conflict is fought. Uh I think we’re very close to this whole thing going off the rail, not just in Iran, but with the Russians as well.

32:16 >> Exactly.

MY COMMENTS:

On 20 July 2020, I headlined “The U.S. Empire Is Ending”, and opened,

On July 26th, Germany’s Die Welt (The World) Sunday newspaper headlined “USA threatens German Nord Stream 2 contractors” and reported that, “The construction of the Russian Nord Stream 2 pipeline has long been a thorn in the US’s side. Now they are increasing the pressure on German and European companies involved in the project — and announce sanctions. German politicians are outraged.”

The U.S. regime is demanding that Germany cut pipelined gas from Russia and replace it with far costlier gas from U.S. fracking companies, which are facing hard economic times and are desperate to increase their exports. … For the very first time, the U.S. regime is so desperate to crush Russia, as to endanger America’s continued alliance with Europe and especially with Germany. This is unprecedented, and must be marked as a turning-point in post-World-War-II history. …

Back at that time, the U.S.-and-allied billionaires who control Germany’s Government had not yet gone through the desperate measure to effectively merge Germany’s liberal SDU Party into Germany’s conservative CDU/CSU Party in the way that the post-JFK U.S. Democratic Party became just a branch of America’s Republican Party; but, when the Democratic Party U.S. Biden on 26 September 2022 had the Nord Stream pipelines blown up, he was simply doing what the Republican President Trump had been wanting to do but not yet gotten around to doing.

Back on 11 July 2018, the Democratic Party President Obama had pressed against the Nord Stream pipeline; CNBC headlined “Behind Nord Stream 2: The Russia-to-Germany gas pipeline that fueled Trump’s anger at NATO meeting”, and noted that

President Barack Obama opposed Nord Stream 2 and President George W. Bush came out against the original Nord Stream prior to its completion in 2011. Like the central and eastern European countries, they worried it increased Russian influence over the Continent. That policy has carried over into the Trump administration. Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan summed up the U.S. position during a trip to Kiev earlier this year.

Anyone who thinks that America’s weapons-makers and extraction-firms, a.k.a. ‘military-industrial complex’, or “neoconservatism,” isn’t absolutely bipartisan in the U.S. Government, has no understanding of the U.S. Government. Virtually 100% of the U.S. Government has as its top priority further expansion of its global empire.

On the day when Russia invaded Ukraine, 24 February 2022, to defend itself against that ever-expanding empire, I headlined about how the U.S. regime’s energy-war against Russia had played a role in forcing Russia into that invasion, “The Real History Behind Ukraine, Putin, the EU, Gas, & Donbass”, and opened:

Russia’s long-predicted invasion of Ukraine finally happened, but the reasons for it are widely misrepresented. Basic history is necessary in order to understand it.

The Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, from Russia, under the Baltic Sea, to Germany, was planned in order to enable greatly increased sales-volume of the lowest-cost natural gas, which came from Russia, into the EU, without having to rely upon the irregular pipelined supplies through the unstable and unpredictable nation of Ukraine. In fact, the planning-document noted on its page 12 that “Import of Russian natural gas to Europe takes place through three main routes, whereof 80% of the gas is in transit through the Ukraine.” They didn’t need to say that that was unstable; everyone knew it was; so, diplomatically speaking, this unfortunate fact about Ukraine wasn’t mentioned by them in the document, though the fact was a crucial reason for the Nord Stream project, which would transmit gas directly from Russia to Germany, no longer through unstable Ukraine.

The U.S. regime now has become so desperate that it’s treating its war against Iran and its war against Russia as being just two fronts in its war to crush any energy-rich country that refuses to become another American colony. This is like publicly announcing that Russia and Iran will either win together their defensive wars against the hyper-aggressive U.S. empire, or else, if not united, both become defeated by that empire. Obviously, therefore, Russia and Iran will now increasingly need to unify. The only way to defeat the American empire snake will be to cut off its head. There  is  no other choice.

—————

Investigative historian Eric Zuesse’s latest book, AMERICA’S EMPIRE OF EVIL: Hitler’s Posthumous Victory, and Why the Social Sciences Need to Change, is about how America took over the world after World War II in order to enslave it to U.S.-and-allied billionaires. Their cartels extract the world’s wealth by control of not only their ‘news’ media but the social ‘sciences’ — duping the public.