The Collapse of NATO May be Sooner than we Think

The collapse of the Soviet Union marked the start of a new age. The Soviet Union had been decimated to 16 independent states, all of whom struggled to manage the transition from communism to capitalism. After 45 years of an idealogical struggle between the two world superpowers, the world was now dominated by a unipolar American world order. America had inherited an unprecedented amount of global influence.

NATO was formed in 1949. Its official charter states that it’s purpose is to contain the Soviet Union. Despite there being no Soviet Union after 1991, NATO would remain in place. On September 11, 2001, NATO was attacked for the first time in history. It’s response was swift; NATO jointly invaded Afghanistan. After 10 years, NATO now had a clear cut enemy: radical Islamic terrorism. This gave way to the opportunity to change NATO’s charter and to remove any references to the Soviet Union. But it never happened. Instead, NATO’s role in the war on terror became minimal. The alliance had no role in the 2003 invasion of Iraq. To this day, the vast majority of NATO’s funds do not go to the war on terror. What then, is NATO’s purpose? The answer is far more complicated than it may seem.

One of the main reasons NATO remains in place is due to the influence of the American military industrial complex. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it became more difficult for the federal government to justify maintaining and expanding such a large army. This would undoubtedly hurt defense contractors, many of whom have been caught giving bribes to politicians and generals. Keeping NATO intact would therefore allow the United States to justify continuing to deploy a huge portion of its military to Europe. In other words, Europe would benefit from free protection, and American defense contractors would benefit as well.

The emergence of China as a power with the capacity to soon rival that of the United States is by far the more important factor. For decades, China chose to cooperate with the agenda of the western elites. George Soros even stated in 2016 that China must lead the new world order, “creating and owning it.” Soros, however, has changed his rhetoric. In 2021, Soros stated that he considers “Mr. Xi the most dangerous enemy of open societies in the world.” Chinese state media has also came out and labelled Soros as an “economic terrorist” and the “son of satan.” Since then, President Joe Biden (who is notorious for his soft positions on China), has chosen to significantly increase aggression against China and the CCP compared to his term as Vice President, possibly echoing the interests of the elites that financed his campaign.  That being said, China is not 1990s Russia. It is a thriving autocracy with the potential to remake the world order. Although it may have cooperated for a while with the interests of the western elites, it most likely no longer does so. This means that our elites have a sudden crisis at hand and must focus US military strength to contain China and prevent it from emerging as a superpower. In doing so, it will need to relocate its military from Europe to the Pacific and East Asia. Regardless, the rise of China entails that at least some of the America’s attention will have to be diverted away from Europe and into East Asia.

In addition, it is likely that in the coming years the US will find it more and more difficult to maintain such a large military budget. Due to the unprecedented amounts the American government is currently borrowing, there will come a time when congress will be forced to return to a policy of fiscal responsibility. In such scenario, cuts to defense spending will be necessary in order to balance the budget.

With the rise of China and the inevitable return to a balanced budget, the United States will no longer be able to afford to continue to pay for Europe’s defense. If such were to happen, NATO would cease to have a purpose. Unless a new threat were to emerge, NATO will inevitably become a relic of the past.