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Tension between Iran and America

When Soleimani was operating close to opium fields in Afghanistan, he fought against the drug trade.

Submitted by Mousumi Roy…

We are entering a dangerous period in the world , the middle east will flare up again, the US will continue to disrupt, and attempt ” regime change in Iran and Syria,” this will be meet with stiff resistance. Global economies will weaken, stock markets will not have much growth.

Trump is playing a very desperate and dangerous game to remain in power. Qassem Soleimani will forever be a controversial figure in the western world, but for an overwhelming majority of Iranians he was a hero, a martyr, and an incredibly popular figure. Qassem Soleimani was probably the single most respected military man not only amongst Shias and Christians, but also throughout the Middle East and around the world. He has been universally recognized as one of the most influential military commanders in the region for decades. This escalation by Trump is much bigger and more extreme than anyone is able to see from the face of it.

The assassination of Qassem Soleimani raises the stakes to a whole new level between Tehran and Washington. Without doubt one of the most serious moments between these two old foes in 4 decades. Iran already confirmed the incident. The attack on the U.S Embassy in Baghdad is a big one reminiscent of what happened forty years ago in Tehran. A nasty response was coming. I didn’t think the PMUs would be going about it unintelligently.

The fact that their initial act at the US embassy, which received a green light from Iraqi Security forces guarding the Green Zone, is ominous. The Iraqis have made it very clear they want the US to “reduce its presence” since they were invaded in 2003. In fact there is no formal agreement between Iraq and the US for the US troops to be there anyways. One way for the US to get around their “commitment” to leave Iraq, is the use of “contractors” not boots.

No serious ME watcher can consider the PMUs as boy scouts, but after all they are Iraqis that get good marks in its role of defeating ISIS. The Iranians cannot afford to lose Iraq because it’s a neighbor. The biggest problem is that there is no independent foreign policy towards Iraq. The Iraq policy is basically intertwined with the Iran policy and is part of a wider framework. Iraq currently risks becoming an independent state and the idea that Iraq can be an ‘ally’ of a country far away that destroyed it in 2003 based on false claims of WMD’s and democracy building is simply ridiculous. Iraq for Iraqis…

When Soleimani was operating close to opium fields in Afghanistan, he fought against the drug trade. After 9/11, he briefly worked with the Americans and captured or killed high-ranking al-Qaeda members, but the collaboration ended when George Bush declared Iran “evil” in a 2002 speech.

Soleimani came from a poor peasant family, worked in construction during his youth to pay off his father’s debts and lifted weights in his spare time. He joined the Revolutionary Guard briefly after the 1979 revolution, to serve his country during the Iran-Iraq War. When Iran was at war with Iraq, he rose up quickly through the ranks, and took part in every major operation. In fact, Soleimani described Operation Fath ol-Mobin (undeniable victory) as the best battle of his life, due to the odds being against his people and yet triumphing against Saddam’s guards despite that.

Soleimani was the leading figure behind the destruction of ISIS. Iran was the first country to respond to the Iraqi government’s call for help in 2014 with support for the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF). Support was offered despite Iran suffering under sanctions because ISIS represented an existential security threat to Iran itself. Without Iran’s early support ISIS would have seized much more territory and Iran’s support and the willingness of the PMF to fight ISIS was critical to the defeat of ISIS as a territorial entity in Iraq and Syria.

Iran is not going to negotiate in 2020 during the US elections, Rouhani will not be able to negotiate in 2021 during the Iranian presidential elections that he is not able to run in. There would have to be “a reformist” constituency to be for a new JCPOA. By 2022, even at current pace of nuclear development, Iran will be a nuclear threshold state and none of the current JCPOA provisions will be applicable. Even as of now, the steps Iran has taken at Fordow are not easily reversible if Iran wish to maintain Fordow.

Iran will continue to adhere to no negotiation with the Trump Administration and the US. The reason for this is because Iranians are starting to believe that the sanctions as designed right now are an asset to self-sufficiency. While people like Zanganeh may not believe that, the other industries in Iran are starting to behave that way. The resistance economy is working, but while the economy did contract, unemployment is less now than it was during the deal. This is in part due to confidence-building in domestic production. The Supreme Leader himself stated that the sanctions will not be removed in the next three years and Iranian officials should stop trying to have them removed.

More importantly, the unity of the government response to the recent protest is further proof that they have coalesced on overcoming sanctions rather than negotiate away the nuclear program. Also, the Iranians have been removing technical limitations and R&D limits of the JCPOA not the legal framework. The legal framework is the only thing that has to be maintained for Iran to be in compliance in light of the US withdrawal and Europe’s inability to bypass US sanctions.

The restoration of waivers will not be in exchange for Iran returning to full compliance with the JCPOA. This compromise is essentially the French 15 billion credit proposal since the French would not put the money ahead. It might be a goodwill gesture, but waivers will not automatically lead to oil sales and banking transactions that Iran is currently creating alternative channels for.

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Sally Snyder
Sally Snyder
January 6, 2020

Here is an article that looks at the little-covered responses by both Russia and China to the Soleimani assassination:

https://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2020/01/iran-does-not-stand-alone.html

Washington has conveniently either forgotten or is ignoring one key aspect of today’s geopolitical reality; Iran does not stand alone.

Olivia Kroth
January 6, 2020

Here is a reaction from Russia. TASS: Ulyanov calls JCPOA parties to exercise restraint after assassination of Soleimani “The assassination of General Soleimani is fraught with very negative consequences for the situation in the region”, Russia’s Permanent Representative to international organizations in Vienna said VIENNA, January 5 /TASS/. Participants in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) should exercise restraint to keep the nuclear deal after the assassination of Iranian General head Qasem Soleimani, Russia’s Permanent Representative to international organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov announced in Sunday. “The assassination of General Soleimani is fraught with very negative consequences for the… Read more »

paul
paul
January 6, 2020

What I hope to see soon is a lot of dead Americans. The more the better. I’ve got a good bottle on ice to celebrate. Any American anywhere from Morocco to Indonesia should expect to be treated as a terrorist and a spy and dealt with accordingly. These weasels like to dish it out. Listen to them squeal when they are repaid in their own coin. Any American is fair game. Anyone who objects should consider the hundreds of millions murdered, starved, threatened and terrorised by this vile regime for so many decades. This subhuman filth will only finally clean… Read more »

TravelAbout
TravelAbout
Reply to  paul
January 6, 2020

Paul,

This should apply to BOTH the puppets carrying out these vile acts against humanity AND the puppeteers pulling the strings above them.

Gab
Gab
Reply to  paul
January 7, 2020

The American people did not do this. It was a conspiracy of Neo-cons supported by the Israeli lobbies and other Zionist organisations [many are not even Jewish], the Military Industrial Complex, and other warmongering parties including the neo-lib & neo-con media.
To blame or attack a group for the actions of others is wrong. Better to promote the truth within the US so that those of good heart can deal with the worst of the conspirators.

The owl of Minerva
The owl of Minerva
January 6, 2020

A man that fights against the drug trade and against terrorists is admirable. His death is a loss to the innocent and a boon to drug peddlers and terrorists.

The owl of Minerva
The owl of Minerva
January 6, 2020

Thank you, Ms. Roy, for publishing this unknown fact in the West, about the general’s war against the drug traffickers.

Olivia Kroth
Reply to  The owl of Minerva
January 6, 2020

So much is unknown about Iran in the West. This country lives behind a sort of “iron curtain”, due to US sanctions. I feel so sorry about it because I love Iran, its history and culture, its kind people and beautiful countryside.

Brewer
Brewer
Reply to  Olivia Kroth
January 7, 2020

Its a paper curtain – a reprehensible, utterly dishonest media.

oldandjaded
Reply to  Brewer
January 7, 2020

I know several Iranians personally, some VERY politically aware and well educated, and have known several others over a period of decades. But then I’m a “stupid hick Canadian”, and so are some of them. By choice.

oldandjaded
January 7, 2020

“When Soleimani was operating close to opium fields in Afghanistan, he fought against the drug trade.”
Which runs counter to CIA/DEA operations going back decades. For example, the downing of Pan-Am 103 was a DEA heroin importing operation gone sideways.
However, looking at the facts that have come out so far, I agree with “Forward’s” supposition on the other thread, that rather than the killing of Soleimani being a US operation, it was an Israeli planned and executed operation that has been dropped on the US’ doorstep.

Brokenspine66
Brokenspine66
Reply to  oldandjaded
January 7, 2020

The CIA is the No.:1 State Owned Drug-Trade/Trafficker/Smuggler/Runner Organization on this planet. They done this in Golden-Triangle partnering up with those Narco Clans/Terrorists to use them as Mercs against the Vietnamese, they couldn’t pay them direct because congress never approved this. They done this in Latin-America partnering up with racist ultra right-wing elites+militias to battle left-wing social/Indigenous movements AKA the imaginary red scare, to bankrole it, they literally were the founding fathers of all the Narco Cartels+Terrorists, the main source of all the snow is still Colombia and the corrupt puppet regime fights still against left-wing social/Indigenous movements – the… Read more »

oldandjaded
Reply to  oldandjaded
January 7, 2020

Interesting phenomenon. Conduct a social experiment on a group who’s views are governed by pre-planted ideoIogical drivers. Gustav LeBon pointed this out as far back as the late 1800’s, and in the 1960s and ’70s, Marshall McLuhan outlined how the effectiveness would be multiplied by the newer forms of passive or active media. I should set up some discreet code word I can enter into the body of the post that indicates ahead of time what I expect the reaction to be, and then collate the results after the fact. It would be an interesting experiment in social engineering, and… Read more »

Paul Martin
Paul Martin
January 7, 2020

oldandjaded
Reply to  Paul Martin
January 7, 2020

Know which group owns any given information source, and who their allies and enemies are, and the web that extends out from that. Always look at context. Psy-ops 101

Iran’s blustery rhetoric is a good sign that it is cornered

America Says It’s Ending Its Occupation of Iraq