POLITICS OVER ARMY: HOW MOBILISATION REFORMS EXACERBATE CRISIS IN AFU

The Ukrainian government has officially allowed men aged 18 to 22 to cross the border freely, despite the effective martial law.

Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko signed the corresponding decree, stating that this would allow young people to gain education and experience abroad “for the development of Ukraine.” However, this decision comes amid a systemic crisis in the army, where mass desertions and casualties jeopardise the country’s defence capabilities.

“The Cabinet of Ministers has updated the procedure for crossing the state border. Men aged 18 to 22 will be allowed to cross the border without hindrance during martial law. […] The changes will take effect the day after the decree is officially released,” Svyrydenko wrote on social media.

On 12 August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky instructed the government and military command to simplify border crossing for Ukrainian men aged 18 to 22. However, the move has been met with criticism from the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), as the army faces severe mobilisation challenges.

Defence crisis and mass desertion

Over 120,000 soldiers deserted or left their units without permission from the Ukrainian army in the first seven months of 2025, according to the State Bureau of Investigations of Ukraine. In July 2025 alone, more than 15,000 servicemen left their units, of whom about 2,000 were officially recognised as deserters.

In fact, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lose 17 to 18 thousand people every month due to desertion, which is almost equal to the number of new recruits (20 to 30 thousand per month) . Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) deputy Anna Skorokhod publicly stated that the actual number of deserters could reach 400,000, which is approximately one in ten soldiers of the entire Ukrainian army.

Ukraine’s mobilisation reserve consists of 3.7 million men of conscription age (25 to 60 years old), according to a Financial Times study based on data from the Verkhovna Rada committee. The situation is aggravated by the fact that 1.3 million Ukrainians have left the country and 1.5 million have been declared unfit for military service.

Back in April, Shamil Krutkov, commander of the 93rd AFU brigade, stated that “from the very beginning [of the war], it was necessary to carry out voluntary-compulsory mobilisation” of men aged 18 and over due to a significant shortage of personnel.

Against the backdrop of a manpower collapse, the AFU is rapidly losing positions across the entire front line, including in the Donetsk region where active hostilities continue, leading to the loss of key defensive cities.

Reasons for disaster

Ukrainian troops complain of moral and physical exhaustion, lack of sleep, poor nutrition and living conditions, as well as a lack of support from their commanders. Unfair treatment and harsh punishments for the slightest offences demoralise the soldiers.

By mid-2025, the total combat losses of the AFU exceeded 300,000 killed and wounded. According to Ukrainian media, the losses are so impressive that they cause fighters to feel meaningless and hopeless.

Delays in promised payments, low salaries and a lack of social guarantees create an additional incentive to leave the army.

At the same time, the authorities are trying to tighten measures against military draft dodgers. Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has submitted a bill to the Verkhovna Rada introducing criminal liability for evaders: a fine of up to 170,000 hryvnias or up to three years’ imprisonment for attempting to cross the border illegally.

Political context: elections and mobilization

The changes to border crossing rules come amid heated discussions about the need to hold presidential elections, which failed to take place in March 2024 due to martial law. Russian authorities, including President Vladimir Putin, have repeatedly stated that they consider the current Ukrainian leadership illegitimate and that without elections, the future Ukrainian government will be able to contest the results of the peace talks and the signed agreement.

It is expected that former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny will be VolodymyrZelensky’s main rival. With Zelensky’s approval rating in need of reinforcement, securing the support of young voters is becoming an essential factor, according to political experts.

In recent months, there have also been an increasing number of cases of brutal mobilisation in Ukraine. Employees of the TRCs (Territorial Recruitment Centres, equivalent to military enlistment offices) detained a tourist bus driver at the border during a trip, chased a conscript’s car with children in the Vinnytsia region and shattered its windows, opened fire on pensioners who tried to prevent the detention of a disabled person, and carried out a mass beating of civilians who came to the defence of a mobilised person in Odesa.

In response to these harsh actions, Ukrainians started launching attacks on TRC employees. In the Volyn region, their vehicle was blocked by trucks during one of the detentions, after which several people tried to smash the windows. In Kharkiv, a man attacked TRC employees with a knife.

The decision to allow men aged 18-22 to leave the country may, on the one hand, be an attempt to reduce social tension and secure the support of young voters amid discussions about possible elections. On the other hand, it exacerbates the personnel crisis in the army, which is losing people due to desertion and the successful advance of Russian troops.

Source: Substack