My Analysis of the Ukraine Battlefield

Russian Army & FSB [Ex KGB] Veteran Predicts When Ukraine’s War Will End

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I’m sorry I haven’t written for some time, but I finally motivated myself to post. I realize this post may not be received very well, as what I’m about to share isn’t a popular opinion, but I hope you’ll take it seriously.

Let me start by clarifying that I’m on Russia’s side. I believe Russia is fighting both effectively and intelligently. Please don’t take this the wrong way – people often misinterpret such statements. The same thing happened when I wrote about negative aspects of Putin’s past. Just because I acknowledge certain truths about his controversial history does not mean I’m against him or that I don’t admire him.

I decided to write this post because I’ve seen many analysts – whom I respect – claim that Ukraine is suffering more casualties than Russia. I do not agree with this assessment. I came across a very objective analysis of the conflict that I wanted to reference here, but unfortunately, the video was removed from YouTube along with the channel that posted it. The channel was called Real Reporter, and the video was titled “Russian Army Veteran Says Europe Isn’t Ready.” If you’re able to find the original video somewhere on the internet, I highly recommend watching it. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to locate the original, so I’m sharing a shorter and slightly different version here. I’ll also include a screenshot of the original video for reference.

Anyway, the channel Real Reporter is pro-Russian, and the analysis was done by someone who is also pro-Russian. Still, it was a great analysis – one of the closest to my own. In the original video, the Russian veteran shared many interesting points with which I agree on the Ukraine conflict and some which I don’t agree about, for example Pakistan-India conflict. One of the key points I wanted to point out is that Russia is actually taking more casualties than Ukraine.

We need to remember that this person is pro-Russian and that the channel was canceled because of this interview. You don’t usually get silenced for telling lies, but rather for telling the truth.

Ukraine claims the casualty ratio is about 10 Russians for every 1 Ukrainian, while Russia claims Ukraine is taking more casualties than Russia. Pro-Russian commentators often say the ratio is 5–8 Ukrainians or even more for every Russian. In my opinion, both sides are lying.

I’ve written my own analysis before, and I still believe it holds true. In my view, the casualty ratio is closer to 1 Ukrainian for every 1 Russian – maybe 1 Ukrainian for every 1.5 Russians. This still means Russia is doing very well, because usually, attackers suffer a 3-to-1 casualty ratio compared to defenders. And that was before the widespread use of drones, which I believe should push that ratio closer to 6 attackers for every 1 defender. So any casualty ratio below that means Russia is winning and performing effectively.

We should also remember that during Ukraine’s offensive, in my opinion the most reliable analyses estimated Ukraine’s casualty ratio at 8 Ukrainians for every 1 Russian – or even up to 12 to 1. That’s 4.5 to 6 times higher than the ratio Russia is currently experiencing during its own offensive.

Many people point to recent body exchanges as proof that Ukraine is taking more casualties. This really surprised me, because people should know better than to use that as evidence. We need to consider that Ukraine is losing ground, while Russia is gaining it. For example, if Ukraine loses trenches, those trenches are often left full of wounded soldiers and dead bodies. When ground is overrun, the defenders often can’t recover their dead, and sometimes they’re even forced to abandon their wounded. That explains why Russia captures more soldiers and collects more bodies – it doesn’t necessarily mean Ukraine is taking more casualties.

By the way, when I talk about casualties, I mean both dead and wounded. I believe Russia is taking more total casualties, but because they’re advancing, they may be able to retrieve their wounded more effectively. This could mean Russia ends up with fewer dead soldiers, though I’m not entirely sure. After all, attackers wounded in no-man’s-land may not be recoverable, while defenders wounded in trenches can more easily be evacuated. So I’m not certain who has more deaths – Russians or Ukrainians – but I’m fairly confident Russia is suffering more total casualties. Not a lot more, but still more.

To show you what I mean, and why I believe Russia is taking more casualties, I’d like to share this video. It’s old, but still relevant, as it shows what real fighting on the ground looks like.

This video shows what’s happening on the ground. People often forget that Russia, as the attacker, has to run across open fields and assault enemy trenches, which naturally makes them more vulnerable to casualties. Despite this, Russia uses its advantages and strong tactics to reduce those losses to around 1.5 Russians for every 1 Ukrainian – a truly remarkable achievement that demonstrates the enormous skill and strategic ability of the Russian army.

By the way, I want to make it clear again that I am pro-Russian. To me, every Russian who dies is a hero fighting for his nation against the Western Capitalist Empire of Evil. So remember: just because I present an objective analysis and say that Russia is taking more casualties than Ukraine, it does not mean I’m speaking negatively about Russia.

I also wanted to write about Ukraine’s drone warfare, and I praised The Duran video featuring Stanislav Krapivnik:

Russian military objectives

In this video, Stanislav Krapivnik, while maintaining a pro-Russian stance like mine and agreeing that Russia is performing well, still acknowledges Ukraine’s advantages - which, in my opinion, is the objective way to approach these issues. I also wanted to share another video from the banned YouTube channel Real Reporter. Fortunately, in this case, I was able to find the original video on Rumble.

Russian Drone Developer Is Not Impressed By US Tech

Russian drone developer is not impressed with US drone development. In this exclusive interview the host sits down with a Russian military drone developer inside his secret workshop to talk about the

This video features a Russian drone developer discussing Ukraine’s advantage in drone warfare. While I am pro-Russian and admire how well Russia is performing on the battlefield, we must remain objective and acknowledge that Ukraine has certain advantages.

Russia holds the edge in missiles, armored vehicles, trained soldier quality, and more. However, Ukraine has advantages in areas such as information, surveillance, drones and drone tactics, and electronic warfare. For example, Ukraine’s lead in electronic warfare is evident from the fact that Russia was the first to use wired drones - precisely because Ukraine’s electronic warfare capabilities forced them to adapt. We must also remember that Ukraine receives support from the United States. American DARPA is providing Ukraine with equipment for testing, including jamming technology and other advanced systems that can operate from far behind the battlefield, making them harder to capture.

In many ways, the Ukraine battlefield has become a large-scale testing ground for American DARPA to evaluate what works and what doesn’t in real conflict - one of the key reasons the West wanted this war. As an example, the Russian drone developer notes that Starlink is the “holy grail” on the battlefield, giving Ukraine a massive advantage - one that Russia currently lacks.

This is my analysis of the battlefield in Ukraine. To be fair, I don’t focus too much on the Ukraine battlefield nowadays, because the outcome of this war has already been decided. Ukraine has already lost - it’s only a matter of time. I’m aware that the situation in Ukraine is getting worse as time goes on, but I hope you’ll still understand my analysis.

I simply wanted to write this because people who are pro-Russian, like me, often get carried away in praising Russia - sometimes to the point of saying Russia is better at everything. In my opinion, that’s not an objective analysis. While we can admit that Russia is doing a great job, to be truly objective we must also acknowledge the areas where it still lags behind, and recognize that even while Ukraine is losing it still holds certain advantages in some aspects of the battlefield.

Thanks to everyone who stuck with me until the end of my post. And, as always…

“Knowledge will make you be free.”

― Socrates

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“Knowledge isn’t free. You have to pay attention.”

― Richard P. Feynman

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“Freedom is not free, you need to pay attention.”

― Grzegorz Ochman

Please pay enough attention, or we will all be screwed. God bless you all.