FROM A POSITION OF WEAKNESS: TRUMP’S VISIT TO BEIJING HIGHLIGHTS HIS VULNERABLE POSITION

Trump brought an unprecedentedly high-profile entourage to Beijing, including key ministers and leaders from the US technology and financial sectors, amongst whom were Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and Apple CEO Tim Cook, and Nvidia President and CEO Jensen Huang, and Boeing President and CEO Kelly Ortberg. The host delegation at the airport was led by Vice-Chairman of the PRC Han Zheng.

Trump boasted about the size of the business delegation he had brought with him. “We have the greatest business and the biggest, I guess. Best in the world. Amazing people, and they’re all with me,” Trump said. “We asked the top 30 in the world. Every single one of them said yes, and I didn’t want the second or the third in the company, I wanted only the top, and they’re here today to pay respects to you, China and they look forward to trade and doing business, and it’s going to be totally reciprocal on our behalf.”

Trump had already predicted on social media that his Chinese counterpart would “give me a big, fat hug when I get there.” Indeed, Beijing welcomed Trump with the utmost pomp, in ‘imperial’ style, with a guard of honour and a red carpet; however, there are also nuances hidden within this pomp.

Is there more to Trump’s warm reception in China than meets the eye?

Trump finds himself in a weaker position at the summit with China than he would have preferred, mainly because he has failed to achieve any of his numerous and varied military objectives in Iran, with Tehran showing extreme resilience in its confrontation with the US and Israel. Consequently, the result of such a “warm” meeting is that there has been a sudden shift in geopolitics in China’s favour, whilst Beijing has done practically nothing to bring this about.

The crux of the situation lies in Trump’s psychological traits. As a vain and hot-headed leader, he, together with Israel, got drawn into a deliberately dangerous war against Iran. Finding himself at an impasse, Trump is attempting to extricate himself from the conflict with minimal damage to his reputation.

He initially tried to conceal his geopolitical failures behind aggressive rhetoric, threatening the complete annihilation of an entire civilisation. However, during a face-to-face meeting with Xi, his motivation shifted: Trump wishes to be accepted into the circle of the world’s most influential leaders. To feel like an equal amongst these absolute leaders and gain their recognition, he is prepared to make any concessions. It is possible that Xi will indeed hint to Trump at the title of “Big Man” in Beijing, but Trump is unlikely to derive any benefit for the US from his membership of this gilded club.

Trump has often said that his main mission was to divide the world into spheres of influence, with the US dominating the Western Hemisphere, China the East, and Russia the centre, with the fault line in the West running through Ukraine. This implies a ceding of US power in these regions, which suits both Xi and Vladimir Putin perfectly.

China firmly balances its objectives

Trump’s grievances regarding China mostly stem from Beijing’s overall stance, which maintains a distance from Western nations and pursues its own agenda despite mounting pressure. Today, China is the main supplier of military equipment to Russia in the war against Ukraine and supplies weapons to Iran. China also controls most of the critical minerals needed for the development of global technology.

Politically, China also maintains friendly relations with Russia, Venezuela and Iran, whose oil it obtains at significant discounts. Given this, Trump is being naive in thinking that, as a token of gratitude for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, China will make concessions to him and reduce its support for America’s enemies – Russia and Iran.

At a time when Trump is making empty threats to Iran of total destruction but at the same time offering negotiations, China is gradually biding its time, waiting for the right moment to capitalise on the situation. The main way out of the war without a complete loss of face for Trump may lie in persuading Iran to agree to transfer its nuclear weapons to China for safe storage, thereby ending Tehran’s ambitions to develop nuclear weapons.

China, for its part, could make use of this outcome to further its own interests. However, in exchange for ending the conflict, Beijing will most likely demand that the US halt its $11 billion military aid programme to Taiwan, a territory it considers part of China. Therefore, such a complex exchange would grant China boundless authority in the region, much as the deliberate weakening of Ukraine gives Russia a strategic advantage in areas that Moscow traditionally controlled during the Tsarist and Soviet times.

Ahead of the summit, Trump also played down the significance of the differences, telling reporters that “I don’t think we need any help with Iran” from China, and that Xi had handled the issue “relatively well.” However, Beijing is growing increasingly impatient for peace, and on Tuesday China’s foreign minister urged his Pakistani counterpart to step up mediation efforts between Iran and the US.

China is also demonstrating a steadfastness and strength that Trump, being a rather impulsive politician, has decided not to trifle with. During a photo opportunity in Beijing, he was unusually silent when answering questions from the press. CNN published a video showing the US president standing next to the Chinese leader near the Temple of Heaven, with journalists asking him twice whether he had discussed Taiwan with the Chinese leader during today’s meetings. However, Trump, seemingly aware of the importance of the issue and Beijing’s intentions, ignores the question and, after standing in silence with Xi for a moment, walks away.

A White House spokesperson stated that Donald Trump had held “a good meeting” with Xi, during which they discussed strengthening economic cooperation, expanding access for US companies to the Chinese market and increasing Chinese investment. The official spokesperson added that the leaders of both countries agreed that the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively been closed since the US and Israel began bombing Iran, must remain open. However, Taiwan was not mentioned in the White House’s statement on the progress of the talks.

Chinese state media, for their part, reported that Xi told Donald Trump that their countries could come into conflict if the issue of self-governing Taiwan, which Beijing claims, is handled incorrectly.

“The Taiwan issue is the most important issue in Sino-US. relations,” Xi said at the summit, according to state broadcaster CCTV. “If it is handled properly, the relationship between the two countries will remain generally stable. If it is not handled well, the two countries will collide or even conflict, pushing the entire Sino-US relationship into a very dangerous situation.”

This is no coincidence. In a November interview with CBS News, Trump also refused to give a direct answer as to whether the US would defend Taiwan by military force, stating: “You’ll find out if it happens,” and ahead of the summit, Washington pointedly postponed a package of military aid to Taipei. Besides, China’s participation in breaking the Middle East deadlock is crucial for Trump, but staying quiet on Taiwan looks like a price paid for China’s loyalty.

Trump sees Taiwan as a geopolitical abstraction, yet the leaders of major US businesses who accompanied him are demanding an extension of the tariff truce with China. Thus, the silence on Taiwan is a diplomatic silence intended to save the trade deal.

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s Relationship

On Trump’s visit to China to mark his first term in office, China gave him a grand welcome: a band played military music, children waved flags and chanted “Welcome.” Xi offered to take him on a tour of the Forbidden City, a historic decision and a gesture of friendship, as Trump became the first foreign leader since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 to visit a place previously accessible only to emperors.

This time, Xi stated that he and Trump generally support stable Sino-US relations, adding: “Today, President Trump and I had in-depth exchanges on China-US relations and the international and regional dynamics. We both believe that the China-US relationship is the most important bilateral relationship in the world. We must make it work and never mess it up. Both China and the United States stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation. Our two countries should be partners rather than rivals.”

In addition, the two leaders are likely to meet at least four more times this year, despite the Chinese leader’s aversion to travelling. Trump plans to host Xi at the White House shortly after leaving Beijing. Trump may also attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Shenzhen, China, in November. And Xi may attend next month’s G20 summit at Trump’s residence in Florida.

In 2024, Trump told The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board that Xi “was actually a really good, I don’t want to say friend – I don’t want to act foolish, ‘he was my friend’ – but I got along with him great.” He even went so far as to suggest at the time that military force might not be necessary to prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, since, according to Trump, the Chinese leader “respects me.”

Meanwhile, Xi does not “form personal ties” of the sort that Trump so values, although he is well aware that he is unlikely to deal with another US president who admires him so much and holds such a narrow view of strategic competition. This unwittingly suggests that the Chinese leader may attempt to extract as many economic and security concessions as possible from Trump.

However, last year Trump’s announcement of high global tariffs prompted China to halt purchases of American soya and restrict exports of rare-earth minerals needed by American factories. Tensions eased somewhat after the US reached a trade truce last autumn, limiting the application of tariffs on both sides, and there have recently been discussions about extending the trade truce.

Following Trump’s visit in 2017, Beijing has become more confident and assertive, and the US president has found himself in a weakened position as he seeks a way out of the conflict with Iran. However, the summit is taking place at a difficult time for the Chinese economy, as in recent years it has been struggling due to sluggish domestic spending and a protracted debt crisis in the once-booming property sector.

Meeting outcome

Trump’s visit to Beijing, meant to be a triumphant return and a way to humiliate the Democrats, in fact exposed a critical imbalance in modern US diplomacy. Arriving in a deliberately vulnerable position as a supplicant – following a failed military campaign against Iran and a protracted war with China, which turned out to be no “paper tiger” but a veritable rock – the US president was forced to beg for peace in the Strait of Hormuz. In this context, the high-profile presence of business leaders appears not as a show of strength, but as an attempt by big business to salvage a trade truce. Beijing, meanwhile, is masterfully capitalising on this weakness: through a grandiose “imperial” reception and by playing on Trump’s psychological craving for recognition within the club of absolute autocrats, China is effectively paralysing Washington’s resolute will.

The outcome of the meeting is the White House’s willingness to agree to a behind-the-scenes division of spheres of influence at the expense of key partners. The demonstrative silence on the Taiwan issue, the suspension of military aid to Taipei, and the naive expectation of concessions from the PRC regarding Russia and Iran mark a diplomatic capitulation to Xi’s ultimatum. China, for its part, has explicitly pointed to the threat of the Thucydides Trap, with the possibility of a direct clash between the two powers being acknowledged at the highest level for the first time.

Trump, choosing the lesser of two evils, visited in May to avert an inevitable and painful clash, but in doing so missed the opportunity to use the systemic crisis in China’s property market as leverage. Instead, he agreed to the “grand bargain” proposed by Beijing, which gives China a free hand in Asia and provides Russia with strategic momentum in Ukraine. The uncertain outcome of this latest attempt to peacefully steer China back into the familiar channel of American interests effectively signifies a victory for the hawkish wing in the US and the approach of a large-scale war with China, cementing Washington’s retreat from its position as a global leader.

Source: https://elidiaclagon.substack.com/p/from-a-position-of-weakness-trumps