Egypt: Paper Tiger or Pushover?

First, consider that the so-called 1978 Camp David Accords — leading to the 1979 Egypt–Israel “peace treaty” and 1993 “Oslo Accords” – allowed a timeline for Egypt to become dependent on Wall Street and its weapons systems, where US taxpayers have provided $1.3B every year to Egypt since then ‘to keep the peace’.

[Note that in 2023 USAID regime change Senator Chris Murphy participated in a scheme led by US State to divert $320M US of that 1.3B “aid” amount from Egypt to Taiwan, and other regime change programs instead, with a realized reduction of $85M. ]

Both sides have violated the terms of the so-called treaty many times and the reciprocal agreements between Israel and Egypt have effectively failed.  The ‘Framework for Peace in the Middle East’ (Carter’s Camp David) for example was rejected by the United nations, because the talks did not include participation of the Palestinian people regarding their right to self-determination, on land formerly held by Egypt (Gaza) before 1967 — and the thus the ‘accords’ were outright rejected by the United Nations. [1]

Still, the United States bequeathed $1.3B US to Egypt annually, as noted above, after 1979. Even so, in today’s terms $1.3Bn is a pittance as the US dollar becomes ever more worthless as a weaponized global reserve currency. In other words, Egypt can do without the US currency, and can somewhat afford to ignore the threats.  Or can it?

Perhaps not. Over the decades Egypt has become even more dependent on US industry. Texas Apache Oil has an exceedingly large investment in Egypt and has invested in excess of $10B US there. Even though the USd is seriously debased, $10Bn US is still a chunk of change. Likewise Coke, General Motors, Boeing, Marriott and many other US corporations have financial interests in Egypt, and the Egyptian upper class is either rabidly pro-American and/or at least tolerant of Israel’s war crimes in Gaza, Lebanon, and the de facto annexed West Bank.

al Sisi

For decades US policy has been to install an unstable regime via USAID / CIA and then to destabilize that regime so the targeted failed state becomes fully — or at least in part — subservient to US interests. [Examples: Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, Georgia, Ukraine, Egypt] That’s the same tactic the US employed when it allowed the Muslim Brotherhood’s Morsi to accede to power (on the heels of the failed US-Mubarak regime) and then for USAID/CIA workers to remove Morsi.  The foregoing is a modus operandi employed all over the world whenever any regime fails to pay tribute to the hegemon.

Today, via the US fiat decree to annex Gaza, and the potential for Israel to occupy the Rafah corridor (in violation of all international law and agreements) Egypt finds itself in a world of hurt — at least in face-saving terms.  As such, bellicose, belligerent voices are being heard from Egypt opposing the US and Israel’s own bellicosity and belligerence. Egypt’s president failed to meet with Trump when ordered to do so, and Egypt has moved its tanks to the Rafah border as a response to the US-Israeli fiat decree on ethnically cleansing Gaza.

In response, Egypt is like the bug with a horrible face to scare predators, but with zero ability to defend itself. That’s because Egypt’s deployable military hardware is mostly American, and the US has certainly instructed Israel on how to defeat it. By the way, the irony of thousands of US main battle tanks such as the M60A3 and Abrams facing off versus the symbiotic lackey of the former United States is so ironic, as to be laughable. Israel’s EW and knowledge of US hardware will not only render Egypt’s tanks and aircraft useless, but will destroy such armour, air defense, and aircraft in short order — just as occurred during the 1973 Arab-Israel war and 1967 pre-emptive war.

Egypt has learned nothing.

Thus, Egypt is arguably weaker militarily now than it was during the Nasser years, because Egypt’s deployable hardware is mostly American, and vulnerable to Israel. For example, Egypt’s air defense is woefully inadequate where Israel certainly knows the Hawk missile and how to defeat it. Likewise Egypt’s leverage of the Russian BUK-2 system will have minimal impact on Israeli equipment.

Briefly put, Egypt’s reliance on and adaptation of western military equipment as its primary means of defence, has rendered Egypt impotent and incapable of defending itself versus the perennial threat of western aggression.

Unfortunately the Russian leadership has failed to take an interest in Egypt’s defense, as it once did. That dynamic has changed for historic and practical reasons, and due to evolving complex financial  and cultural relationships between Russia and Israel, since the Olim migration there from the late 1980’s  Despite the Russia-Egypt partnership of 2018, the presence of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and its US “captured state” status has largely prevented the supply of Russian military equipment to Egypt.

The Kremlin does occasionally take advantage of rifts in the US relationship with Egypt to supply a limited amount of military equipment, and Egypt has supposedly provided Russia with rockets by return.  However there is no real proof on the rocket supply, which is more likely a Deep State attempt to embarrass Egypt.

In fact, if Egypt does have any real practical problem with Israel, rhetorically speaking Egypt might be better off to simply flood Israel with its 100 million+ inhabitants, across Israel’s so-called borders, than to take military action against it. And Egypt’s ‘upper class’ would not have to participate.

Ultimately this is not about the lapse or violation of treaties, accords, or agreements between sovereigns. In reality, Egypt is an empty suit.  Egypt is all hat and no cattle, bluff and bluster, with no effective defense or offense. And that is by Egypt’s own doing, failing, and design – not just that of any US $$ conspiracy to subvert it..

[1] Sadat was assassinated by Egypt’s Islamic Jihad group (in part) for supporting the so-called “treaty with Israel.

Steve Brown