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Very dangerous escalation in Syria

Very dangerous escalation in Syria

Republished with permission; this article was first published by The Saker

By now many of you must have heard the news: a Russian Lieutenant-General, Valery Asapov, and two Colonels have been killed in what appears to be a very precisely targeted mortar attack.  Just as in the case of the Russian military police unit recently attacked near Deir ez-Zor, the Russians are accusing the Americans of being behind this attack.  To make things even worse, the Russians are now also officially accusing the Americans of actively collaborating with ISIS:

US Special Operations Forces  units enable US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces units to smoothly advance through the ISIS formations.  Facing no resistance of the ISIS militants, the SDF units are advancing along the left shore of the Euphrates towards Deir-ez-Zor.  The aerial photos made on September 8-12 over the ISIS locations recorded a large number of American Hummer vehicles, which are in service with the America’s SOF.  The shots clearly show the US SOF units located at strongholds that had been equipped by the ISIS terrorists. Though there is no evidence of assault, struggle or any US-led coalition airstrikes to drive out the militants.  Despite that the US strongholds being located in the ISIS areas, no screening patrol has been organized at them. This suggests that the US troops feel safe in terrorist controlled regions.

These are the maps and aerial photos provided by the Russians (for higher resolution, click here)

What this all seems to point to is that the Pentagon has now apparently decided to attack Russian forces directly, albeit unofficially.   From the Pentagon’s point of view, this (almost) makes sense.

First, by now it is pretty darn clear that the “good terrorists” and the “bad terrorists” have lost the civil war in Syria.  Simply put, the USA has been defeated, Syria, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah have won and the Israelis are now freaking out.

Second, the American plan to use the Kurds as foot-soldiers/canon-fodder has failed.  The Kurds are clearly too smart to be pulled in such a losing proposition.

Third, the American plan-B option, the partition of Syria, is now itself directly threatened by the Syrian military successes.

Last and not least, the Americans by now are deeply humiliated and enraged at the Russian success in Syria.

Lieutenant-General Valery Asapov

Hence they have now apparently taken the decision to directly target Russian military personnel and they are using their considerable reconnaissance capabilities combined with US Special Forces on the ground, working side by side with “good” and “bad” terrorists, to target and attack Russian military personnel.

This is not the first time, by the way.  There is pretty good evidence that a Russian hospital near Aleppo was targeted using means not available to the local Daesh franchise.  This time, however, the Americans are not even trying to hide.  The message seems to be this all-time American favorite “watcha gonna do about it?“.

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There is a lot the Russians could do about it, in fact.  I wrote about this in my article “Using plausible deniability against a systematically lying adversary“.  If the folks at CENTCOM really believe that their generals are all safe and out of reach they are deeply mistaken.  Unlike the Russians and, even more so, the Iranians, US Generals are mostly risk averse and hard to get to in Syria.  But who said that Russia would have to retaliate in Syria?  Or, for that matter, that Russia would have to use Russian forces to retaliate.  Yes, Russia does have special units trained in the assassination of high-value targets in hostile countries, but that does not at all mean that they would decide to use them.  Accidents can happen anywhere and the roads are notoriously dangerous in the Middle-East.  Why do I mention that?  To illustrate that Russia does have options short of overtly going to war.

Of course, the Russians could simply fire a volley of Kalibr cruise missile at any of the ISIS positions shown in the photos above and then go “oops, you had personnel embedded with these al-Qaeda types?  Really?  We had no idea, no idea at all“.  Syria also have a pretty solid arsenal of tactical ballistic missiles.  The Syrians could mistakenly hit any such ISIS+US positions and express consternation at the presence of US military personnel in the midst of terrorists.  There is also Hezbollah who, in the past, has even seized Israelis soldiers in raids across the border and who could decide to capture themselves some US SOF types.    And let’s not forget the Iranians who have not had such an golden opportunity to finally get their hands on US military personnel since many years.

The three key weakness of the US force posture in Syria are: first, their own force in Syria is too small to make a difference, but big enough to represent a lucrative target and, second, all the boots on the ground which matter are against them (Syrians, Iran, Turkey, Hezbollah and the Russians).  Finally, the only two real US allies in the region are too afraid to put boots on the ground: Israel and the Saudis.

The bottom line is that if the Americans think that the Russians and their allies don’t have options they are deeply mistaken.  They also should seriously consider the consequence of having US SOF operating in forward positions.  The Syrians are closing the distance fast and this might not be the best time to hunt Russian military personnel.

So far the Russians have only limited themselves to protests and expressions of disgust.  This has clearly not been an effective strategy.  The Russians apparently don’t realize that very few people care and that the more the complain, the less credible their warnings sound.  This is not a sustainable approach and the Russians will so “have to do something about it”, to use the American expression.

Things might become very dangerous, very fast and very soon.

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Pedja
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Terry Ross
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Terry Ross

That definitely has ratchetted up the pressure on the US to pull back.
I cannot see Russians and Syrians stopping their advance at this stage.

colum
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colum

It would be defeat from the jaws of victory if they did. Militarilly and Politically they need the coup de grace as soon as possible to put this mess beyond doubt.

Gonzogal
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Gonzogal
BobValdez
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BobValdez

“The Russians apparently don’t realize that very few people care and that the more the complain, the less credible their warnings sound. ” What kind of stupid shit is this, from the saker, no less? The Russian DO realise no-one gives a shit about them or their military casualties, and they WILL retaliate, asymmetrically and under the radar. It is VITALLY inportant for Russia to make official complaints about the us and it’s terror tactics, so that when the whining seppos start bitching about Russia killing their terror troops on the ground, no-one will give a fuck then, either. I… Read more »

Norman
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Norman

Absolutely

Great Expectations
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Great Expectations

Having read the entire article, I take a less literal interpretation of that sentence. In the context of the piece, that final sentence doesn’t seem to be a criticism of the Russians’ self-awareness, but perhaps a suggestion that they need to (and possibly will) turn the screw a tighter to counter US aggression. If there is one thing the Russians are meticulous about, it’s not giving the US and its allies the slimmest opportunity to condemn any Russian actions. So it seems that every step taken by the the Russians is signposted in huge neon lights, to cover every propaganda… Read more »

Suzanne Giraud
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Suzanne Giraud

Bingo!

Putin's baby
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Putin's baby

Americans always, always underestimate their many enemies…. Russian will do something. In fact not too long ago, they fired some cruise missiles which killed us, British and yidreali officers…

Le Ruse
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Le Ruse

But…But… They did win in Grenada ?? Didn’t they ??

PhoebeDHarry
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PhoebeDHarry

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Le Ruse
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Le Ruse

SamanthaDFujiwara only cheap two bit Ho are making home porn for $97 an hour ??

mnedes
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mnedes

The US doesn’t have to win wars, we just have to foment chaos. Be evil.

Le Ruse
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Le Ruse

Chaos ?? & we know, who started it ? A doctor, an engineer, a rabbi and a lawyer were debating who was the world’s first professional. The Doctor said, “It must have been a doctor. Who else could have helped with the world’s first surgery of taking a rib from Adam to create Eve, the first woman?” “No,” said the rabbi. “It must have been a rabbi, since the Lord needed someone to help preach his message to Adam and the world.” “Wait,” said the engineer. “The world was created in 6 days from nothing. Do you know what a… Read more »

Gavin Allen
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Gavin Allen

More pathetic propaganda from the Duran. Never happened.

Norman
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Norman

You smell really bad

Ray Joseph Cormier
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I believe this is True, “First, by now it is pretty darn clear that the “good terrorists” and the “bad terrorists” have lost the civil war in Syria. Simply put, the USA has been defeated, Syria, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah have won and the Israelis are now freaking out.” As for American behaviour these Days, I see the US is acting out these Projections from 1976; On September 13, 1976, the major daily THE KANSAS CITY TIMES published this Vision of the FUTURE: “He came to town for the Republican National Convention and will stay until the election in November… Read more »

dago dingo
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dago dingo

Would love nothing more than watching the Kalibr’s rain down on ISIS/U.S positions anywhere in Syria or Iraq, would also love to see some scum Israeli fighter jets blown out of the sky so as to send a very clear message to these thugs & their controllers in the deep state.

Woodshedding
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Woodshedding

Everyone keeps talking as though war with Russia weren’t the BIGGEST GOAL of the powers that be.

Robert Ferguson
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Robert Ferguson

“Powers that be” = Zionist Jews

john vieira
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john vieira

The script is being played out. Trump’s U turn after Merkel’s visit, the false flag gas attack, cruise missile shots into Syria and bellying up to the Brussels ‘bar’ to ‘derail’ Le Pen…and the deflection with Kim to cover their continued aiding and abetting of ISIS…Pity the Germans did not ‘oust’ Merkel…

Bong
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Bong

RUSSIAN SHOULD KILL ALL FUCKING AMERICA AND THEIR COUNTER PARTIES IN SYRIA IN LAND OR OFF SHORE. BLOW ALL FUCKING US NAVY VESSEL TO THE BOTTOM OF THE ATLANTIC WITH ALL ON BOARD AND EQUIPMENT.

Pete Mangum
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Pete Mangum

guys like Ron Paul have been warning about this for decades, all to no avail. American boobus are about to learn a hard lesson for not listening to him!

Isabella Jones
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Isabella Jones

” The Russians apparently don’t realize that very few people care and that the more the complain, the less credible their warnings sound. ” Must admit to being a little surprised to see Saker taking a PCR line, and assuming that he knows more and better than the leaders in the Kremlin. Putin, and following him his hand picked team, have taken a cautious, calculated approach. There is a saying in Russia “you never hurry unless catching fleas”. Well, we might think of Yanks that way morally – yes they are fleas – but in truth, taking them on in… Read more »

tomo stojanovic
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tomo stojanovic

I think you are right – Eastern Europeans have different mentality – in Serbia where I am from people try to do their best and they don’t worry at all what others will think about them. The first story I remember being taught in primary school was from I think the 1001 Nights by Scheherazade – called You cannot please Everyone or something like that. A man rides a donkey and his son pulls the donkey. They bump into a guy who tells the father to swap positions with his son, the other one later tells them that nobody should… Read more »

Isabella Jones
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Isabella Jones

Very true re the story of the man, boy and donkey tomo. Something we have to learn early in life – impossible to please everyone. You just have to work out if what you are doing is right, and you are doing your best and not hurting anyone if it can helped, and then let others make of it / you what they will. It never ceases to amaze me the extent so many people, Anglos’ especially, will let their concern of what others think influence them. I knew one lady who fell in love with a beautiful outfit of… Read more »

Thomas
Guest

Let’s hope and pray a sea of American General rank officers and CIA types are spilled rather quickly to allow the world to watch the yellow streak the runs down their spines come to bloom when Push has turned into Shove.

Suzanne Giraud
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Suzanne Giraud

Patience: just give the CIA/MOSSAD possessed soup of brands enough rope for the world to see WHO is the aggressor. And then, the legally-present and allied Justice can be released with full fury.

Keith Smith
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Keith Smith

it seems that americans are monitoring the movement of all SAA and Russian military activites with drones and satelites, and reporting information to ISIS

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