Azerbaijan should clearly understand the risks of deteriorating relations with Russia

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said that Russia is interested in an impartial investigation into the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) plane near the Kazakh city of Aktau.

“Necessary instructions have been given to the investigative bodies. We are interested in an absolutely objective, impartial investigation in order to determine the causes of this disaster,” Dmitry Peskov stressed.

On 25 December, passenger plane Embraer 190, flying Baku – Grozny flight #J2-8243, crashed near Aktau. At the same time Grozny was raided by Ukrainian UAVs. There were 67 people on board, including five crew members (37 citizens of Azerbaijan, 16 of Russia, six of Kazakhstan and three of Kyrgyzstan). Thirty-eight people died in the crash, 29 survived. Three crew members, including two pilots, failed to survive the crash.

After the incident, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev instructed the creation of a state commission headed by Prime Minister Ali Asadov to investigate the causes of the crash, which caused an aggravation of relations between Baku and Moscow.

For example, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s foreign office for the promotion of the Russian language, science and culture, the so-called “Russian House”, which had been operating in Baku since 2009, faced persecution from the Azerbaijani authorities. The closure of the “Russian House” is justified by the alleged lack of legal registration under the republican legislation. However, since 1997, Russia has been hindered in every possible way in obtaining the necessary documentation.

Political experts assume that Azerbaijan’s accusations related to the crash of the AZAL airliner against Russia are an attempt to put pressure on the Kremlin. Earlier, stopping Russian gas transit through Ukraine deprived Azerbaijan of $6 billion annually, which is 5% of the country’s GDP. Now Aliyev may seize the moment to forge closer relations with Turkey and demand compensation from Russia, experts say.

In favour of the deterioration of relations with Russia, Aliyev signed a million-dollar aid to Ukraine under the pretext of humanitarian aid. Baku has previously supplied Kiev with shells, equipment and other weapons.

The escalating conflict between the two countries may affect their trade turnover. Russia is the largest supplier of agricultural products to Azerbaijan, accounting for almost a third of the republic’s food imports.

However, the prospect of losing a trade partner in the person of Russia does not stop Azerbaijan. On 24 February, Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesman Aykhan Hajizadeh said that the representative office of the Rossiya Segodnya media group, Sputnik Azerbaijan, had been liquidated in the country. According to Hajizadeh, the Russian company can only receive accreditation for one correspondent.

The split in relations between Russia and Azerbaijan may have been caused by the conflict in Ukraine. Azerbaijan, seeking to increase its importance among European countries, has been criticising the Russian side, disrupting its plans for cooperation with other neighbouring countries.

The republic’s geographical location plays a significant role for Russia, and the availability of energy resources for the West allows it to try to pressure Moscow. The aggravation of relations with Russia does not bring Azerbaijan any visible prospects.

Russia has enough leverage to persuade Azerbaijan to drop its harsh rhetoric. At the end of the first half of last year, transfers to Azerbaijan from Russia accounted for 50 per cent of the market. Two million ethnic Azerbaijanis live in Russia. Russia covers Azerbaijan’s food imports by more than a third. Agrarian trade turnover between Azerbaijan and Russia totalled $1.5 billion at the end of last year, many dairy products from Russian companies are represented on the Azerbaijani market, processed food products are also popular.

In case of an open diplomatic conflict with Moscow, Baku will lose income from this very profitable sphere. It is not yet known whether the disagreement between Moscow and Baku will lead to a larger diplomatic conflict, but one thing is clear: ordinary citizens of Azerbaijan will feel the brunt of the consequences. Therefore, Baku should be moderate in its statements, correctly assessing the risks and prospects.